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Wednesday, March 6, 2019

The Point: Here's the best poll # for Donald Trump this year


March 6, 2019  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Here's the best poll # for Donald Trump this year

The first two years of Donald Trump's presidency haven't exactly been filled with stellar ratings from the public.

Trump's approval rating in Gallup has never -- not one time -- been above 50% since he was sworn into office. His overall job approval number in the Real Clear Politics' average is below 44%. Almost six in 10 people disapproved of how Trump has handled the Russia investigation in a CNN-SSRS poll last month.

On and on it goes -- bad numbers following bad numbers, leaving the poll-obsessed Trump to cherry-pick a piece of data here and there that suggests he isn't doing all that badly. "Without the phony Russia Witch Hunt, and with all that we have accomplished in the last almost two years (Tax & Regulation Cuts, Judge's, Military, Vets, etc.) my approval rating would be at 75% rather than the 50% just reported by Rasmussen," Trump tweeted in late 2016. "It's called Presidential Harassment!"

But, lo and behold, there's a new poll from Gallup that actually contains some very good news for Trump: 56% of the public approve of the job he is doing with the economy.

That's Trump's highest mark on the economy to date and the best he did on the 14 domestic and foreign policy issues that Gallup asked. (Trump's lowest issue rating in the new poll? Just 35% approve of how he has handled the situation in Syria.)

"The President's greatest strength in the views of Americans remains his handling of the economy, although his overall approval rating lags far behind it," writes Gallup's Megan Brenan. "Americans' ratings of his handling of the economy and unemployment outpace 12 other issues tested in the latest Gallup poll, and at 56%, his rating on the economy is the highest of his presidency, up four percentage points from earlier this month."

If history is any guide, the strength of the economy -- and, as importantly, whether Americans perceive the economy as strong or weak -- is a major indicator of an incumbent's chances of winning re-election. As CNN's Harry Enten noted last December:

"It turns out there has been a clear correlation between said job growth and the ultimate election result. If the economy has the same job growth over the final two years of Trump's first term as it has over the first two years (about 3%), history suggests Trump would be favored to win by a few points."

Things change. An economy seen as booming one month could be seen as lagging in a few months' time. 

The Point: As of right now, people think Trump is doing a good-to-very-good job with the economy. And that is a very good thing for the incumbent, who's been hard-pressed to find good poll numbers in the last 24ish months.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"If you say the bacon is not crispy enough, they'll have an article about this unrest and unease in the Democratic Party."

-- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi criticizing "our friends in the press" for focusing on Democrats' fracas over remarks made by Rep. Ilhan Omar. 

PREPARATION FOR REPARATIONS?

Not so much, at least according to Rep. Jim Clyburn, who this week threw water on using reparations as a way to fix racial disparities.

"I think pure reparations would be impossible to implement," Clyburn told The Post and Courier. "But we can deal with the issue (of racial inequality) if we just admit, first of all, that it exists and then come up with some straightforward ways to deal with it."

Two high-profile presidential contenders, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, have both recently come out in support of reparations to counter the legacy of slavery and discrimination against black Americans. It's a step beyond what other Democratic leaders like Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton have previously backed.

The South Carolina Democrat is the highest-ranking African-American in Congress. 

CHRIS' GOOD READS

What Donald Trump was doing the day he cut a $35,000 check to Michael Cohen

Inside Trump's often confusing and contradictory foreign policy pronouncements

The amazing story of two young sisters who survived alone for 44 hours in the wilderness

Four players Major League Baseball scouts missed on

Pat Collins, beat poet

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Newly unearthed Townes Van Zandt recordings? Sign me up!

INSTA POINT

Today's topic: Hillary Clinton is OUT of the 2020 race. (Or is she?)

SWIFT POLITICS

With age comes wisdom --  a fact Taylor Swift is apparently learning.

The soon-to-be-30-year-old songstress penned 30 lessons she's learned, including that she wants to get more involved politically, starting with the 2020 campaign. 

"Invoking racism and provoking fear through thinly veiled messaging is not what I want from our leaders, and I realized that it actually is my responsibility to use my influence against that disgusting rhetoric," Swift wrote for Elle Magazine. "I'm going to do more to help. We have a big race coming up next year."

LAUREN'S 2020 LATEST

Bernie Sanders: Has pledged to not engage in personal attacks in his 2020 presidential campaign (the same pledge he made in his 2016 run).

Bill Weld: The possible Republican primary challenger to President Donald Trump has a scant campaign presence and flimsy infrastructure, according to a Politico report. 

Jay Inslee: Is one of the few 2020 Democrats welcoming the support of a Super PAC.

🚫 NEVER TWEET: CONGRESS EDITION ðŸš«

"Everyone stop tweeting!"

It's a sentiment held by many, including Illinois Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who exclaimed it during a contentious Democratic Caucus meeting this morning.

Younger members' Twitter presence, like Rep. Ilhan Omar and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has exacerbated some intra-party tensions. Ocasio-Cortez on Monday criticized Rep. Juan Vargas on Twitter over US and Israel's relationship. 

"She could have come down the hall and asked me what my opinion is," Vargas said today.

YOUR DAILY GIF

From Brenna: "Whoa, slow down, Mr. VP. Tuesdays are not made for that kind of energy about job creation. Save it for a Thursday. Share The Point with your friend who is expending too much energy too early in the week!"
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.
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