| | | | 2020 trend: Big cities keep getting bigger 🏢 |  | | We are increasingly a country of cities. Big cities.
There are now 775 cities in America that have a population of more than 50,000 -- and, collectively, 127 million people live in those cities, according to estimates from the US Census Bureau released Thursday. That's nearly 40% of the total population in the country. And since 2010, the populations of those big cities (50,000 and above) has risen, on average, by almost 12,000 residents.
The growth, particularly of late, has come from cities in the South and West. "Among the 15 cities or towns with the largest numeric gains between 2017 and 2018, eight were in the South, six were in the West, and one was in the Midwest," according to the Census Bureau release. Phoenix, Arizona, led that list -- adding more than 25,000 residents in a single year. Two Texas cities -- San Antonio (almost 21,000 new residents) and Fort Worth (19,552 new residents) were second and third on the list.
Why does this matter, politically speaking? For lots of reasons!
1) The national vote has been trending away from rural areas and toward urban and suburban areas for more than a decade now. In 2004, 30% of voters were in urban areas, 46% in suburban areas and 25% in rural areas. In 2016, it was 34% urban, 29% suburban and just 17% rural. Those trends should boost Democrats. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump 60% to 34% in urban areas; in 2004, John Kerry won urban areas over George W. Bush by 9 points.
2) The South and West will get more and more powerful in Congress and picking a president. Estimates based on population growth through 2018 show seven states projected to gain congressional seats (and, therefore, electoral votes) after the next Census: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon and Texas. Texas is projected to gain three (!) new congressional seats -- taking its delegation to 39 -- while Florida is set to gain two new House districts. (The states expected to lose seats? A large cluster in the Midwest and East, including Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Michigan and Minnesota.)
3) Our two parties increasingly represent totally different Americas. As Ron Brownstein wrote in the wake of the 2018 midterm election: "The result is a widening trench between the parties in the House that encapsulates the growing distance between a Democratic coalition centered on minorities, Millennials and college-educated white voters, most of them clustered in urban areas, and a competing GOP coalition that revolves around evangelical, rural and blue-collar whites who often live beyond it."
The Point: Demographics, as they say, are destiny. While Trump's 2016 victory proved that predictions of demographic doom for Republicans were overstated, these ongoing growth (and decline) trends suggest Republicans will need to find a way to better appeal to urban voters, or run the long-term risk of shrinking as a national party.
-- Chris | | "She treats me like she treats her maid or her pilots."
-- Kellyanne Conway, whose estimated net worth is $39 million, on Nancy Pelosi, whose estimated net worth is $16 million. The two had a tense exchange at the White House, where Conway says Pelosi told her she doesn't "talk to staff." | | | OUR LATEST DEM POWER RANKINGS! | |  | 10 Dems most likely to be the 2020 nominee, ranked | | We're a month out from the first debates of the 2020 cycle -- and there are two new faces on the top 10 rankings by Chris and Harry Enten. (Hint: One of them *really* likes math.)
Do you agree with the latest list? Send feedback to cillizza@cnn.com. | | 2020 and the curious case of Barack Obama by Edward Isaac-Dovere
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How The National got its mojo back | |  | | Today's topic: Can you guess the candidates in our new 2020 rankings? | | We are a month away from the first debates of the 2020 cycle, and we have an increasingly clearer picture of which of the 20 Democrats will be on that stage.
Both self-help author Marianne Williamson and businessman Andrew Yang, long-shot candidates, appear to have crossed the polling and fundraising thresholds to qualify for the debate stage. That's not a guarantee -- especially if more than 20 candidates qualify.
But it's still pretty remarkable considering that Kirsten Gillibrand, who has held elected office since 2007 and represented the entire state of New York in the Senate since 2011, hasn't yet qualified. | |
LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST | | John Delaney: Rolled out a $4 trillion climate plan that includes a carbon fee and increasing funding renewable energy research five-fold.
Elizabeth Warren: Is calling for additional information from the Trump admin on child migrant deaths.
Eric Swalwell: Is using blockchain technology (aka cryptocurrency) to fundraise.
Amy Klobuchar: Officially opened her campaign's headquarters in Minneapolis today.
Pete Buttigieg: Criticized the 1994 crime bill, saying the "bad outweighs the good."
Bernie Sanders: Held a video town hall with striking McDonald's employees around the country who are calling for union rights and a $15 minimum wage by 2020. Other presidential candidates joined the strikers on the ground including Cory Booker, Julián Castro, Bill de Blasio and Jay Inslee. | | | | | | |
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