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Monday, June 17, 2019

China’s Risky Game in Hong Kong

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good
 
June 17, 2019

China's Risky Game in Hong Kong

In seeking to exert greater control over Hong Kong, China risks killing its "golden goose," William Pesek writes in the Nikkei Asian Review. Hong Kong's "status as commercial center rests on autonomy from a Chinese government pulling it ever further into its orbit," he argues, and creeping Chinese influence (not to mention tear gas in the streets) has disquieted business executives.

One can find signs of that unease in a Wall Street Journal editorial.The paper suggests that, in order to help Hong Kong's protesters, the US should take a closer look at Hong Kong's status as a separate economic and trade zone. The proposed extradition law, which sparked protests and has now been stalled, would give China the ability to target and prosecute government critics in Hong Kong, and the paper asks: "If Hong Kong's autonomy will not be respected, why should American policy treat it differently from China?"

What Could Diplomacy With Iran Look Like?

As tensions with Iran continue to escalate, observers seem largely convinced that the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign is to blame—there's no reason to believe Iran would resort to things like sabotaging ships unless provoked, Paul Pillar writes at LobeLog—but Richard Haass of the Council on Foreign Relations suggests one possible off-ramp.

Writing at Project Syndicate, Haass suggests President Trump could reengage with Iran and seek a nuclear deal "2.0," in effect replicating the situation that generated the Obama-led agreement in 2015, with sanctions pressuring Tehran to negotiate longer-term limits on its nuclear program and restrictions on more points of contention, like ballistic missiles.

Iran appears reluctant to concede much (Middle East Institute President Paul Salem has predicted the current situation will persist until the next US election, at least), but there may be an opening for Trump to seek a new agreement and improve upon the original deal, Haass suggests.

America's Demographic Edge

China's rise and Russia's assertiveness have generated anxiety about America's position in the world, but Nicholas Eberstadt writes in a Foreign Affairs essay that demographics are on America's side.

By 2040, China will have an older, less-educated population, and its social fabric will be strained by decades of China's one-child policy, which will have decimated family structures. Russia is staring down an "acute crisis" in high-skilled production, to go along with its relatively low life expectancy, as it produces little intellectual property and lags in wealth. In the decades to come, fertility rates and education will favor continued US economic strength, compared to America's rivals, Eberstadt writes—just a few reasons to worry a bit less about America's sliding global dominance.

How ISIS Changed the Role of Women and Children in Jihad

ISIS changed jihadist terrorism in several ways, but in the most recent episode of Rules Based Audio, a Lowy Institute podcast, counterterrorism expert and institute fellow Lydia Khalil explains that ISIS incorporated women in a novel way. Women weren't just duped into joining the Islamic State; they were radicalized and used as social-media "influencers" to recruit adherents; in some cases, they enforced ISIS laws. Women have been used by other jihadist groups as suicide bombers, but as ISIS sought to build a community, not just an army, families were an integral part of that mission.

ISIS also raised and radicalized children in its caliphate, and now that its territory has collapsed, they're tragically but inevitably being viewed as a security threat, Khalil says.

Chinese Spying Concerns Hit a Massachusetts Plant

US concerns about Chinese espionage aren't just affecting Huawei: James Politi and Tom Mitchell write in the Financial Times that a Chinese rail company, CRRC, which won a contract to produce local-transit train cars for Chicago and is bidding on another contract for Washington's metro, has drawn concerns that the Chinese government could sabotage public transit or spy on passengers.

Mistrust of China and resistance to CRRC's rail projects now threatens to cost the citizens of Springfield, Mass., where the company launched a new plant in 2014; locals are upset, and it's the latest instance of pain and problems generated by America's economic decoupling from its Asian rival.

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