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Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Have tariffs peaked?; Uber's losses; Holiday shopping prep

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By Julia Horowitz • Tuesday, November 5

Happy Tuesday. In today's newsletter: Tariffs may have peaked, Uber keeps losing money and Alipay is making it easier to travel in China.

US stock futures point higher after the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all notched fresh records on Monday. Markets in Europe are also moving up, following stocks in Asia.

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What's happening now in markets:
 Dow futures 27,465 (+0.3%)
 S&P futures 3,084 (+0.3%)
 Nasdaq futures 8,245 (+0.4%)
Shanghai Composite 2,992 (+0.5%)
 US 10-year yield 1.812%
▼ Gold $1,505.50 (-0.4%)
 US oil $57.03 (+0.9%)

 MARKET DATA AS OF 6:05 AM ET

MARKET FLASH

Have US-China tariffs peaked?


Global markets are climbing on optimism that a "phase one" US-China trade deal is within reach — and that a rollback of existing tariffs could be part of the package.

The scene: The Financial Times is reporting that Trump administration officials are debating removing some existing tariffs on Chinese goods to help seal a partial deal that would reduce tensions with Beijing as early as this month. The Wall Street Journal says that US and Chinese officials are "actively considering" rollbacks.

CNN's read: The United States is assessing current tariffs as it works to finalize "phase one" of a trade deal, officials told CNN, but no decisions have been made.

"Cue a further improvement in global risk sentiment," Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes wrote in a note to clients.

Such news reports take the idea that talks are going well to the next level. Goldman Sachs told clients on Sunday that it believed tariffs have likely peaked, and new taxes planned for December 15 would never take effect.

But the investment bank still predicted that US tariffs on imports from China would stay at current levels through 2020, and said it couldn't entirely write off the risk of higher duties.

"A US-China deal that substantially reduces US tariffs continues to look much less likely than an eventual breakdown in talks that leads to renewed tariff escalation," said Alec Phillips, Goldman's chief US political economist.

The thinking, per Phillips: "Achieving a broad US-China agreement dealing with issues like technology transfer looks quite difficult, and we believe it is unlikely that the White House would lower tariffs meaningfully unless such a comprehensive deal can be reached."
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VOICES

On gearing up for the holiday shopping season

 

"Gone are the days where returns were isolated to January. Today's empowered consumers will be sending packages back to retailers all season."


UPS CHIEF MARKETING OFFICER KEVIN WARREN
 

Read more from CNN Business.

 

EARNINGS MONITOR

Uber can't shake its steep losses


Uber keeps losing money — and investors are losing patience.

The ride hailing company on Monday reported that it had lost nearly $1.2 billion during the third quarter, including $401 million in stock-based compensation expenses related to its public offering in May, my CNN Business colleague Sara Ashley O'Brien reports.

CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said the company is focused on achieving profitability in 2021. "We've got a roadmap ahead of us," he told analysts.

But that pledge isn't instilling much confidence on Wall Street. Shares are down nearly 6% in premarket trading.

One bright spot: Uber posted revenue of $3.8 billion during the third quarter, a 30% increase compared to the previous year. Revenue growth was just 12% in the second quarter compared to 2018.

Watch this space: Uber's newer business lines are growing the fastest, Sara notes. Sales from its meal delivery service Uber Eats were up 64% from a year earlier. Revenue from Uber Freight jumped 78%. Revenue in its "other bets" category, which includes its dock-less bikes and e-scooter business, reached $38 million in the third quarter, up from just $3 million a year ago.

UP NEXT


More earnings. Allergan, Cinemark, Mylan and Peloton report before US markets open. Caesars Entertainment and Match Group follow after the close.

Also today → 
 The US trade balance for September arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET.
 The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index hits at 10 a.m. ET.

Coming tomorrow: SoftBank reports its first earnings since WeWork's IPO flub.


WHAT WE'RE READING AND WATCHING

 McDonald's top human resources officer departs after CEO firing (WSJ)
 Bank of America will hike its minimum wage one year early (CNN Business)
 WeWork mess leaves SoftBank's Masa Son $6 billion poorer (Bloomberg)
 Virgin Galactic's first week on the stock market was anticlimactic (CNN Business)
 OPEC sees its oil market share shrinking as US shale looms large (Reuters)
 Microsoft tried a 4-day workweek in Japan. Productivity rose 40% (CNN Business)

OKAY, SO...

Visitors to China can now use Alipay


Visitors to China can now access the country's massive cashless economy.

Alibaba-affiliated Ant Financial launched a new international version of its mobile payments app Alipay on Tuesday, marking the first time tourists and business travelers can use mobile payments in mainland China, my CNN Business colleague Sherisse Pham reports.

The service could remove one of the biggest headaches for visitors to China, where everyone from taxi drivers to luxury malls have come to rely on mobile payments. It also exposes Alipay to an entirely new customer base — perhaps paving the way for further growth abroad.

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