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Tuesday, December 3, 2019

'Tariff Man' has returned; FAANG stocks in 2020; Bank job losses deepen

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By Julia Horowitz • Tuesday, December 3

Good Tuesday morning. In today's newsletter: The return of "Tariff Man," why FAANG stocks could lose their momentum in 2020 and the growing number of job losses at Europe's banks.

US stock futures point lower again after a difficult Monday. Markets in Europe gained in early trading but have since turned negative, while stocks in Asia were mixed.

BREAKING: US President Donald Trump says the US-China trade war could drag on beyond the 2020 US election. Keep reading for more.

 Forwarded this newsletter? Want global markets news and analysis from CNN Business reporters every morning? You can sign up here

What's happening now in markets:
▼ Dow futures 27,680 (-0.4%)
▼  S&P futures 3,104 (-0.3%)
▼ Nasdaq futures 8,278 (-0.5%)
STOXX Europe 600 401 (-0.1%)
▼ US 10-year yield 1.791%
 Gold $1,476.40 (+0.5%)
 US oil $56.09 (+0.2%)

 MARKET DATA AS OF 6:05 AM ET

MARKET FLASH

'Tariff Man' has returned


US President Donald Trump, the self-proclaimed "Tariff Man," is back in action — injecting fresh volatility into markets just as stocks had notched a string of record highs.

What's happening: Trump told reporters at a press conference in London Tuesday that the signing of a US-China trade deal is entirely at his discretion. He indicated that an agreement may not come until 2020 — or later. "I have no deadline," he said. "In some ways I think it's better to wait for after the election, if you want to know the truth."

US stock futures turned negative after Trump's comments, and yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury plunged. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, shot up more than 6%.
That follows an eventful Monday, when the United States proposed a wave of tariffs on French goods, including cheese, handbags and sparkling wine. The action, which is still subject to a public comment period, comes in response to a new French tax on digital services that affects large American tech companies including Facebook and Google.

Roughly $2.4 billion in French products could face new taxes of up to 100%, according to the office of the US Trade Representative. France's finance minister said Tuesday that the European Union "would be ready to retaliate strongly."

That's not all: Trump also made a surprise announcement that the United States will restore steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina, which had previously been granted exemptions. 

These actions surprised investors, driving US stocks lower and bond prices higher. The VIX on Monday logged its biggest jump since August.

The scene: We know United States and China are struggling to hammer out a "phase one" trade deal that was supposed to be finalized last month. A Chinese push to remove all existing tariffs, along with a new US law in support of Hong Kong's pro-democracy protesters, reportedly stand in a way of a formal agreement.

Now Trump, who said just last week that the United States and China were in the "final throes" of negotiations, looks to be hedging. For investors, who had baked in a trade deal and generally expected the global economy shake off the negative impact of tariffs in 2020, it's a rude awakening — and a reminder that the US president is extremely unpredictable.
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VOICES

On the FOMO propping up markets

 

"When you continue to go up everyday and there is no pullback, it forces people into the market. Those are not strong hands. Once the market turns, they will be quick to sell."


KEITH LERNER, SUNTRUST CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST 
 

Read more from CNN Business on why markets are vulnerable to a reversal.

 

DATA POINT

Will Big Tech's stock market reign end in 2020?


It's been a blockbuster year for Big Tech stocks. Apple shares are up nearly 70%, making it the top stock in the Dow. Microsoft has surged almost 50%. And, despite a series of controversies, Facebook has jumped more than 50%.

But some market experts say value stocks and bonds might be better options than momentum FAANG stocks heading into 2020, my CNN Business colleague Paul R. La Monica reports. FAANG refers to Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google.

The scene: There are growing concerns that the global economy will slow further next year, and that earnings expectations for 2020 may now be too high as a result. That would mean that the stocks that have run up the most have the biggest potential to fall.

"We're treading lightly and taking some chips off the table," Jake Falcon, CEO of Falcon Wealth Advisors, told Paul. "It's hard to not take some profits."

Falcon's view: He sees value in high dividend yielding utility stocks as well as Treasury bonds. Falcon also thinks there are better opportunities in small cap value stocks and emerging markets than there are in large US tech stocks.

UP NEXT


Salesforce reports earnings after the close.

Also today → 
 US auto sales for November.

Coming tomorrow: How is America's services sector holding up amid a four-month manufacturing contraction?


WHAT WE'RE READING AND WATCHING

 Apple could launch four 5G phones in 2020 (CNN Business)
 US dominance in global services is starting to weaken (WSJ)
 Sweden backs away from negative rates despite softening economy (FT)
 Black Friday broke shopping records, but not at stores (CNN Business)
 Oil rises as Saudi Arabia pushes for further supply cuts (Reuters)
 Now McDonald's is testing a fried chicken sandwich (CNN Business)

OKAY, SO...

Europe's banks keep bleeding jobs 


Italy's biggest bank said Tuesday that it will cut roughly 8,000 jobs, adding to a year of pain for European bankers.

UniCredit, which laid out its strategic plan through 2023, is promising €2 billion ($2.2 billion) in share buybacks during that period. But that pledge — unusual for banks in Europe, which have struggled since the global financial crisis — is only possible if the bank executes its broader restructuring plan, which will also include 500 branch closures. Historically low interest rates continue to crimp lending profits, while economic growth remains sluggish.

Bloomberg reports that with UniCredit's announcement, banks have announced more than 73,000 job cuts this year. Almost all of them (86%, to be exact) are in Europe.

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