The Point: How the electoral map is moving toward Republicans

View this email in your browser   January 6, 2020  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski  How the electoral map is moving toward Republicans Just days before 2020 voting begins, the Census Bureau released its latest state-by-state population projections, numbers that give us a pretty clear sense of what the electoral and congressional maps will look like after the official counting of the population this year.   And the news is very good for the Southwest and South and not at all good for the industrial Midwest and Northeast.   Texas is projected to be the biggest gainer post-2020, adding three more congressional districts due to massive population growth over the past decade. Florida, too, continued to grow at a gangbuster pace and is expected to gain two seats prior to the 2022 midterm elections.     Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon are also projected to each gain another congressional seat.   The losers? Ten states -- all of which are expected to lose a congressional district due to slower-than-average growth over the decade. That list: Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia.   Which is interesting! But not nearly as interesting -- or telling -- as what you see when you take a step back and look at the longer-term population trends.   Since the 2000 census -- so from 1990 to these late 2019 estimates -- here are the biggest seat-gainers:   Texas (+9 seats) Florida (+6) Arizona (+4) Georgia (+3) Colorado (+2) North Carolina (+2)   And the biggest losers:   New York (-5 seats) Ohio (-4) Pennsylvania (-4) Illinois (-3) Michigan (-3)   That 30-year trend is unmistakeable. The South and Southwest are growing increasingly powerful. The Rust Belt is getting rapidly weaker.   So what does this all mean for future elections -- and the fates of the two parties?    Of the six biggest gainers of seats (and the potential Electoral College votes that go with them), five are states where Donald Trump won in 2016. Of the five biggest seat-losers, Trump won three in 2016 (Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan), while Hillary Clinton won the other two.   But Michigan and Pennsylvania have long been blue states in presidential elections prior to 2016 -- and polling in both suggests that they may be returning to the Democratic fold in 2020.   Advantage Republicans. The one big "if" that could change that calculation? The rising competitiveness of Democrats in Texas. If the population behemoth suddenly becomes a jump ball in presidential politics, all of the smaller, more incremental gains for Republicans from population movement over the last few decades disappear.   The Point: The Northeast is the past. The Southwest is the future. Politically speaking, that is.   -- Chris QUOTE OF THE DAY "In any other country, Joe Biden and I would not be in the same party, but in America, we are." -- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, when asked what type of role she'd play in Congress under a Joe Biden presidency. THE WEEK QUESTIONS START TO GET ANSWERED Here's a very sharp lookahead at the Senate's impeachment trial from Phil Mattingly:   There is no good answer to this question right now beyond "we don't know." It's entirely contingent on Pelosi holding the vote to appoint managers and transmit the articles to the Senate. Pelosi hasn't tipped her hand as to when that may occur. Even when it does, it's likely there will be several days of negotiations about how the trial will be structured before any real floor action kicks into gear. In other words, this will be a process -- one in which without the first step, nothing else comes together.   Read more on the impeachment state of play.     Today's episode: 2020 is here! Here's the lay of the land in Iowa. CHRIS' GOOD READS AOC, on year 1   Who is Jared Kushner really?   The remarkable story of PragerU   David Siders makes the case for a verrrryyy long Democratic primary fight   Pitchfork has the 39 most-anticipated albums of 2020!   "Cats." While high. MUSICAL INTERLUDE Freddie Gibbs and Madlib did a Tiny Desk Concert. And it was amazing.   129 DAYS OF IMPEACHMENT From the whistleblower to the House vote, Chris breaks down everything you forgot you needed to know about the impeachment so far.    Stay in the know with The Point on YouTube. Subscribe!  LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST     Elizabeth Warren: Received former candidate Julián Castro's endorsement. He'll join her at a rally in New York on Tuesday.   Michael Bloomberg: Has been endorsed by notable New Yorker Judge Judy.    Andrew Yang: Is launching a write-in campaign in Ohio after failing to qualify for the state's primary ballot.   ONE LAST QUOTE "Without Twitter, we'd be lost." President Donald Trump, calling in on Rush Limbaugh's radio show. Trump added that "we wouldn't be able to get the truth out" without it.  You are receiving this message because you subscribed to CNN's The Point with Chris Cillizza newsletter. Unsubscribe from this list Check out other CNN Newsletters Share the Point Newsletter Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get The Point in your inbox. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. You can follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter and connect with The Point on: Our mailing address is: One CNN Center Atlanta, GA 30303 Copyright © 2020 Cable News Network, Inc., All rights reserved.