| | | | How Trump Did What Ayatollahs Couldn't in Iran: Erdbrink | | President Trump and Saudi Arabia have stoked in middle class Iranians something their leaders long failed to arouse: a strong sense of nationalism and "widespread public support for the hard-line view that the United States and Riyadh cannot be trusted," suggests Thomas Erdbrink in the New York Times.
"Iranians listened during the 2016 campaign as Mr. Trump denounced the Iran nuclear treaty as 'the worst deal ever negotiated' and promised to tear it up. They watched in horror when, as president, he sold more than $100 billion worth of weapons to the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and participated in a traditional war dance in Riyadh. And they are alarmed at the foreign policy moves of the young Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, whom they see as hotheaded and inexperienced," Erdbrink writes.
"At the same time, they now believe they have something to be proud of, with Iranian-led militias playing a central role in defeating the Islamic State militant group in Syria and Iraq, increasing Iran's regional influence in the process.
"The two most popular stars in Iran today -- a country with thriving film, theater and music industries -- are not actors or singers but two establishment figures: Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the leader of Iran's regional military effort, which is widely seen as a smashing success; and the foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, the symbol of a reasonable and measured Iran."
| | Trump Needs to Meet Kim. Really | | President Trump can kill two birds with one stone – ease a dangerous standoff and score a much-needed foreign policy victory that could boost his standing at home, writes Isaac Stone Fish in the New Republic. How? By holding a summit with Kim Jong Un.
"The idea might seem preposterous -- and not only because of the current tensions between the United States and North Korea. Trump, with his verbal outbursts, his naïveté in international affairs, and his susceptibility to the sophistries he hears from his advisers and cable TV pundits, seems uniquely unsuited to solving the North Korean crisis. But before it was announced, Nixon's visit to China seemed equally unlikely," Fish writes.
"Far from considering Nixon a political hypocrite or a pushover, Americans cheered his diplomatic coup. Nixon's approval rating jumped from 49 percent in January 1972 to 56 percent after his return from China a month later. The trip, and the positive publicity it generated, allowed Nixon a brief respite before Watergate overwhelmed him."
"A summit would be the best, most realistic outcome to the current tensions. It would allow the United States to assuage Pyongyang's fear of invasion and regime change, in exchange for something meaningful in return, perhaps a freeze on missile testing. More importantly, it would increase trust between the two nations."
| | Saudi-Led Military Coalition: Tough Talk, Action Pending | | | Members of the Saudi-led Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition held the group's inaugural meeting Sunday, which came in the wake of an attack on a mosque in Egypt that officials say killed more than 300 people. Speaking at the gathering, Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said: "Today we affirm that we will pursue terrorism until it is eradicated completely."
Michael Stephens, a Middle East research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, emails Global Briefing that while the meeting and vow to work against terrorism -- and those who seek to distort the Islamic faith -- is welcome, we shouldn't expect "any serious military activity" from the group any time soon.
"Countries quarreling with Saudi Arabia were conspicuously absent, and so at present the alliance looks more like a Saudi-led show of diplomatic power than an effective military body that will act collectively to stop terrorism," Stephens says. "The key to watch will be whether Western military alliances, like NATO, interact with the coalition and treat it as a genuine collective security organization; we are still some way off from that being the case. Certainly, the rhetoric is nice, but it must now be backed up by concrete action." | | Why Kenya's Backsliding Should Worry Everyone | | The resounding reelection of Uhuru Kenyatta in the second round of Kenya's presidential election, following the nullification of the first vote, is just the latest result in a troubling trend, writes Jon Temin in Foreign Affairs. East Africa is backsliding on democracy – and that should have the rest of the world worried.
"East Africa can be an engine of continental economic growth, has made important gains in regional economic integration, and is rich in natural resources, including substantial oil and gas reserves. Extremist groups affiliated with both al Qaeda and the Islamic State (or ISIS) are active in Somalia and occasionally cross into neighboring countries. The United States' largest military presence in Africa is in Djibouti, with China and several other countries operating military bases nearby. Tiny, authoritarian Eritrea is the top African source of active asylum seekers in Libya. The region borders the Red Sea, a key part of maritime trade routes between Europe and Asia," Temin writes.
"The region's retreat from democracy threatens all these interests. Its strongman leaders may offer short-term stability, but their authoritarian practices and resistance to building democratic institutions weaken the underpinnings of the state and make the inevitable leadership transitions more likely to be volatile. As seen in Somalia, failed governance and weak state structures create conditions in which extremists thrive."
| | South Korea: A Canary in the Coal Mine for the West? | | Many have resorted to "menial or degrading" jobs, some even to prostitution, to make ends meet. Retirement is tough for the almost half of elderly South Koreans living in poverty, write Bryan Harris and Kang Buseong in the Financial Times. Is this the West's future, too?
"Amid dramatically increased lifespans, a falling birth rate and a slowing economy, the elderly population is ballooning. By 2060, 41 percent of South Koreans are projected to be over 65, up from 13 percent in 2015," they write.
"And the trend is not limited to South Korea, with many western countries, particularly in Europe, facing a demographic shake-up as low fertility rates meet soaring life expectancy. By 2050, 17 percent of the world's population -- or 1.6 billion people -- will be over 65 years-old, up from 8.5 percent in 2015, according to a report by the U.S. government."
"Few of South Korea's elderly have prepared for retirement and many ploughed vast sums into their children's education, leaving them strapped in later life, says Prof Lee of Korea Soongsil Cyber University." - Japan's growing gray blemish. Japan's remarkably low crime rate might be the envy of most of the world. But the country is experiencing something of a low-level crime wave from an unexpected source: seniors, the Japan Times notes.
"[T]he number of the elderly caught for criminal offenses last year -- nearly 47,000, mostly over petty crimes such as theft -- was 3.7 times the level two decades ago," the paper says in an editorial. "Many of the elderly former inmates are said to repeat offenses to get jailed again because they don't have places to live or work to sustain themselves when they are released."
| | President Trump is expected to visit Capitol Hill this week to address the tax bill and other legislative items with Senate Republicans. Jeffrey Sachs warns for CNN Opinion that the current incarnations of the GOP tax plan could send the United States "into a tailspin."
Russia hosts a prime ministers' meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization beginning Thursday. Reuters reports that while the group was conceived as a security-focused body to "battle threats posed by radical Islam and drug trafficking," China is hoping it could double as a free trade area, too. The SCO currently consists of eight member states: China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. | | | | | | |
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