| | | | Meet Trump's new approval rating. Same as his old approval rating. | | I noted in this space last week that President Donald Trump had tied his highest approval ratings -- 45% -- in Gallup's weekly poll. A week can change a lot, apparently.
In Gallup's new weekly poll released Monday, Trump's approval rating had cooled off to 41% while his disapproval shot up 5 percentage points -- up to 55%. It's easy to ascribe Trump's approval fade to his disastrous past week in which he badly underestimated the damage done by his administration's "zero-tolerance" policy at the border. Trump eventually flip-flopped on his insistence that an executive order wouldn't solve the family separation crisis but, even then, legal and logistical questions remained.
But in truth, Trump's 41% approval could well be simply a return to normal. After all, Trump has averaged 39% approval in Gallup polling for the totality of his presidency to date. Trump's numbers among Republicans remain strong (90% approval last week, 87% this week) and his numbers among Democrats remains dismal (10% approval last week, 5% this week).
As Gallup's Jeffrey Jones notes: "Past controversies, such as the ban on travel to the US from certain Muslim-majority countries, his firing of FBI Director James Comey, and Trump's reaction to the white supremacist-protester clashes in Charlottesville, Virginia, brought him negative media attention. While each of these controversies did appear to cause slight and temporary declines in Trump's approval ratings, opinions of the President have been fairly well established from the outset."
Seen through that lens, Trump's numbers last week are the exception; his numbers this week are the rule. And it's not totally clear how Republicans should feel about that fact.
On the one hand, Republicans remain extremely positive about Trump -- usually a sign the base of the party is activated and ready for the fall elections. On the other, the history of presidents under 50% approval in a midterm election is absolutely disastrous for the GOP. The average loss for the party in power is 36 House seats!
Trump's 45% showing last week had given some Republicans hopes that he might, maybe, make it close to 50% approval before November. Those hopes seems to have been short-lived. If you believe Gallup's long-term trend -- and you should -- the most likely place for Trump to wind up in November is somewhere between 39% and 42% in approval.
The Point: Trump is Trump. For every step forward there is (at least) one step back. Republicans need to just make peace with that reality.
-- Chris | | SPEAKING OF TRUMP'S POPULARITY... | | CNN's Harry Enten provided The Point with this analysis: "Some have wondered whether Trump's increased popularity among Republicans is because those Republicans who dislike Trump have left the party. One way to answer that question is to look at ideology instead of party identification. The idea being that Republicans may have left the party over Trump, but they wouldn't have changed their ideology (e.g. conservatives are still conservatives).
"It turns out that conservatives (the most likely ideological group to identify as Republicans) are more in love with Trump than ever. Trump's net favorability rating in CNN's latest poll stood at +50 points. This standing is lower than among all Republicans because there still are conservative Democrats. What's important to note is that his net favorability rating now of +50 points is considerably higher than his net favorability among conservatives in CNN's pre-election poll of +30 points." | | "I'm riding the Trump wave. He's Christopher Columbus."
-Dennis Hof, the Nevada brothel owner who just days ago ousted a Republican state lawmaker in a primary, in an interview with CNN's Eric Bradner | | | TRUMP: NO REGRETS ON IMMIGRATION EXECUTIVE ORDER | | CNN's Kevin Liptak reported Monday: "President Donald Trump said he doesn't regret signing the immigration executive order meant to keep migrant families together. 'The executive order was great,' Trump said in response to a question from CNN's Jeff Zeleny. 'It was something that I felt we had to do.'"
Meanwhile, on the Hill, House Republicans still plan to vote this week on a broad overhaul of the US immigration system. Per CNN's Phil Mattingly, "That will turn all eyes to the biggest outstanding question: Can Congress fix the holes and shortcomings of the Trump administration's hastily cobbled together executive order on family separation?" Read more in Phil's story here. | | | Love, love, love Kamasi Washington. His new one -- "Heaven and Earth" -- absolutely rocks. | | | Point readers -- don't forget to ask Chris one question about the news this week that you need more clarity on. Submit your weekly question to saba.hamedy@cnn.com by Wednesday at noon ET. Chris will pick one reader's question to answer on Friday, and we'll include the response in the newsletter and on CNN Politics' Instagram story. | | | WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE RED HEN INCIDENT | | White House press secretary Sarah Sanders opened her briefing on Monday with a statement about being asked to leave a Virginia restaurant. But if you weren't checking Twitter over the weekend, you probably wouldn't know what she was even talking about -- let alone why it would be the topic to kick off the press briefing. Here's everything that went down. - Sanders posted on Twitter Saturday that she and her husband were told to leave the Red Hen in Lexington, Virginia, because she works for Trump.
- Also on Saturday: Red Hen owner Stephanie Wilkinson told the The Washington Post in an interview that she "would have done the same thing again." Also, Red Hen Washington, D.C. -- a separate restaurant entirely -- posted on social media that it has no affiliation with the restaurant in Virginia.
- People immediately went on Yelp to review the Red Hen after the incident. Meanwhile, the OTHER Red Hen (the wrong one) got sent messages and threats. "We're in a PR crisis and we didn't do anything," the owner told Washingtonian.
- President Trump weighed in on on Monday, tweeting, "The Red Hen Restaurant should focus more on cleaning its filthy canopies, doors and windows (badly needs a paint job) rather than refusing to serve a fine person like Sarah Huckabee Sanders. I always had a rule, if a restaurant is dirty on the outside, it is dirty on the inside!"
- Sanders read a statement reacting to the incident during the briefing. "We are allowed to disagree but we should be able to do so freely and without fear of harm, and this goes for all people regardless of politics. Healthy debate on ideas and political philosophy is important, but the calls for harassment and push for any Trump supporter to avoid the public is unacceptable."
| | HE'S RUNNING ... FOR MAYOR | | CNN's Caroline Kenny reports: "Former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander has been traveling to early primary states, hiring staff members and getting to know national Democrats all in preparation for a run for: mayor of Kansas City.
"The former Army captain announced his run for mayor of the city he previously represented in the state Legislature on Sunday, saying this position, as opposed to running for president in 2020, gives him the best opportunity to serve. 'The next mayor has the opportunity to shape the future of Kansas City for generations,' Kander said in a campaign news release. 'I'm running because I am up for that challenge.'"
Read more here. | | 'DOORS' CAMPAIGN AD GOES VIRAL | | Since Democrat M.J. Hegar, a Purple Heart recipient running in Texas's 31st District, posted her campaign video "Doors" to YouTube and Facebook last Wednesday, it has garnered about 3.7 million views total.
The three-and-a-half-minute clip depicts her background as an Air Force combat search-and-rescue pilot who helped rescue passengers after her helicopter was shot down by the Taliban in 2009, as well as her role as a working mother.
"I think that part of the reason it's been so well-received is because the message resonates with people," Hegar told CNN's John Berman on "New Day" on Monday. "A lot of people across the country feel like they have absent representation and that their voices are not being heard." Read more in CNN's story here. | | | From Brenna: "On Mondays we wear pink. Or at least first lady Melania Trump and Jordan's Queen Rania do. Their husbands went with richer reds in their ties when the couples greeted each other at the White House on Monday." As always, thanks for reading The Point. Please tell people you know to subscribe to our newsletter. | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba.
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