| | | | The depressing predictability of the immigration debate | | Sometime over the next week, an immigration bill that aims to resolve the fate of DACA and fund President Trump's border wall will very likely fail to secure a majority of votes on the House floor -- dying an ignominious death so familiar to those who have followed the repeated legislative attempts to address the country's immigration problems.
In a last-minute decision, Republicans postponed a vote on a comprehensive immigration bill for the second time in less than a day, a sign of the struggles leaders are having to unite the conference on such a contentious topic.
There's no reasonable expectation that the so-called "compromise" bill -- which would have allocated $25 billion in funding for the border wall while also offering a path to citizenship to children brought to the United States illegally -- has any chance at passage. That doom pervades despite the fact that Speaker Paul Ryan and Trump have both urged its passage through a Republican-controlled House.
The bill is caught between the same old Scylla and Charybdis that has dashed past legislation to pieces: Moderates unhappy about the massive spending on a debatably useful border wall and conservatives opposed to the idea of providing "amnesty" to people in the country illegally.
What's more: Even if, by hook or by crook, the House manages to pass this compromise bill, it's virtually certain to be dead on arrival in the Senate. Even if all 50 Republican senators voted for it -- John McCain remains in Arizona battling brain cancer -- the bill would need 10 votes from Democrats to bring it to the floor for debate. And unless you have been living on another planet for the last few years, you know that 10 Democrats ain't voting for legislation that provides $25 billion in funding for a southern border wall.
So we are back to square one. No solution for DACA recipients. No more money allocated to the border wall. And looming just off in the distance this fall is the potential for another government shutdown unless some sort of deal is reached. Trump has already signaled that this time he won't back down on shutting the government down if he doesn't get the wall funding he wants. "We have to have borders, and we have to have them fast," Trump said in a speech in Michigan in April. "And we need security. We need the wall. We're going to have it all. And again, that wall has started. We got 1.6 billion. We come up again on September 28, and if we don't get border security, we'll have no choice. We'll close down the country because we need border security."
The Point: This has all happened before. Since the mid-2000s Congress has been trying and failing to find some sort of comprehensive immigration solution. Or even a semi-comprehensive one. Nothing has worked. Which means that everyone should get ready for the very real possibility of another government shutdown in late September.
-- Chris | | "A handful of pardons will not address the sort of systemic injustice that NFL players have been protesting."
-- Doug Baldwin of the Seattle Seahawks, Anquan Boldin, a former NFL wide receiver, Malcolm Jenkins of the Philadelphia Eagles and Benjamin Watson of the New Orleans Saints, responding to the President in a New York Times op-ed. | | | FLOTUS' SURPRISE TEXAS TRIP | | CNN's Kate Bennett was on the ground with First lady Melania Trump as she toured a child detention center -- Upbring New Hope Children's Center -- near the US-Mexico border in Texas. There, per Kate's reporting, Trump was greeted by Upbring CEO Dr. Kirk Senske, who outlined Upbring's five markers of success: safety, life skills, health, education and vocation. The facility opened in 2014 and there are currently 58 children there, aged 12-17. (See more on Kate's Twitter timeline here). Earlier, at the White House, the President described the facilities where some migrant children are being held as the "nicest that people have seen."
Trump's surprise trip to the border comes as Customs and Border Protection is announcing a new practice aimed at keeping families apprehended at the border together following President Trump's executive order, CNN's Tal Kopan reported Thursday. "But the new practice, announced in a statement Thursday, does not address those children who have been sent to shelters nationwide who were separated from their parents over the past two months and are likely in the custody of a different government agency." Read more here.
Hundreds of rallies are planned as part of a Families Belong Together national day of action on Saturday, June 30 to protest the administration's "zero-tolerance" immigration policy, which remains in effect. | | | Happy first day of summer. NPR made a playlist of the songs that will define this summer. | | | Today's topic: The jacket that first lady Melania Trump was wearing ahead of her border visit. It read "I really don't care. Do U?" on the back. | | IMMIGRATION REFORM BILLS HEADED FOR FAILURE? | | CNN's Ashley Killough reports: "As expected, the US House of Representatives failed Thursday to pass an immigration bill that was favored by conservatives and known as the Goodlatte bill after House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte.
"The vote was 193-231 (with 231 voting against it and 193 voting for it). With no Democrats voting for the bill, Republicans were going to need enough of their own members to get to a majority, but they failed to cross that threshold. The House was originally scheduled to vote later this afternoon on the so-called compromise bill (the second of the two immigration bills), but CNN's Hill team reports the vote will be delayed until tomorrow as Republicans take more time to consider the bill." Read more here.
But CNN's Phil Mattingly noted, "barring some major shift in momentum, both of those broad immigration proposals are headed toward failure."
Also on the Hill Thursday: children donned emergency thermal blankets similar to ones handed out at border detention centers and used cages as part of a protest against the Trump administration's "zero-tolerance" policy on immigration. | | CONGRESSIONAL WOMEN'S SOFTBALL GAME RASIES $320K | | | Congratulations to The Point's Leigh Munsil and the Bad News Babes team for beating Team Congress at the tenth annual Congressional Women's Softball Game! The game was short (thanks DC weather!) but still a success, as both teams helped raise more than $320,000 to fight breast cancer. The game was started by Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Rep. Jo Ann Emerson and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and in 2010, the team invited women of the press to join. | | | CNN's Michelle Kosinski reported Thursday: "President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are planning to meet around the time of Trump's trip to the UK and the NATO summit in mid-July, according to two diplomatic sources familiar with the matter. One diplomatic official told CNN that the Trump administration wants the meeting in Washington, but Moscow has insisted on neutral ground. The official added that Vienna is the likely location. No official announcements have been made." Read more here. | | | Per CNN's Ashley Killough and Phil Mattingly, "House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows, a conservative Republican from North Carolina, erupted at House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin over their agreement involving two major immigration bills, saying several times, 'I'm done,' while pointing in an animated fashion at the top House Republican and raising his voice as their colleagues watched." (GIF above, story here). As always, thanks for reading. Please tell people you know to subscribe to The Point. | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba.
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