| | | | Senate Dems are powerless to stop Trump SCOTUS pick | | In the immediate aftermath of news Wednesday that Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy will retire, Senate Democrats issued a series of statements promising to ensure that President Donald Trump doesn't pick a conservative judge in his stead.
"They are conservative ideologues, not mainstream jurists," California Sen. Kamala Harris said of Trump's list made up of about two dozen potential picks. "We cannot and will not accept them to serve on the highest court in the land."
From a rhetorical perspective, that sounds nice. But in raw political terms, it's not at all clear how Harris or the rest of her Senate Democratic colleagues can stop Trump's pick from being confirmed between now and November.
There are three things working against Democrats:
1. They don't control the Senate: The majority leader of the Senate sets the schedule. And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell made very clear his plan during remarks on the floor after the Kennedy news broke.
"The Senate stands ready to fulfill its constitutional role by offering advice and consent on President Trump's nominee to fill this vacancy," said McConnell. "We will vote to confirm Justice Kennedy's successor this fall."
2. Senate Republicans only need 50 votes: After Senate Democrats changed the rules to allow simple majorities to confirm judges below the Supreme Court level earlier this decade, McConnell pushed through a measure that made it a 50-vote threshold to confirm judges to the highest court in the country as well. (McConnell did so after Democrats held together and blocked consideration of the nomination of Neil Gorsuch in the spring of 2017.)
What that rule change means is that if all 51 Republicans support Trump's court pick, that person will be confirmed. But a totally unified vote would depend on the likes of Sen Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who have publicly trumped Trump in the past, staying in line behind party orthodoxy.
3. The 2018 map: There are 10 Democrats up for re-election in states that Trump won in 2016; five of those members -- Sens. Joe Donnelly (Indiana), Claire McCaskill (Missouri), Jon Tester (Montana), Heidi Heitkamp (North Dakota) and Joe Manchin (West Virginia) represent states that Trump carried by double digits.
It's no coincidence that Heitkamp, Donnelly and Manchin were the only three Democrats who voted for Gorsuch's confirmation last year. They will be under even more pressure to support Trump's eventual pick this time, given that the November midterms are looming.
The Point: None of the above means that Democrats won't be able to raise money off the Kennedy opening or use the prospect of five solid conservatives on the court as motivation for their base in the fall. They can and they will. But when it comes to actually stopping Trump's pick, the only people who can do that are the 51 Republicans in the Senate.
-- Chris | | "'I am female. I am progressive. What's your problem?"
- House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, when asked if the chamber's Democratic leadership should reflect the growing representation of female, young and more progressive members. | | | 🚨 JUSTICE KENNEDY RETIRING 🚨 | | The big news of the day: Justice Anthony Kennedy, a conservative who provided key votes for same sex-marriage, abortion access and affirmative action, will retire from the Supreme Court, CNN's Ariane de Vogue reported Wednesday. From her story:
"The retirement is effective July 31, Kennedy said in a letter to President Donald Trump on Wednesday. Kennedy's decision to step down could transform the Supreme Court for generations. Trump will have his second opportunity to nominate a justice and will likely replace Kennedy with a young, conservative jurist. That would create a bloc of five staunch conservative justices who could move the court further to the right and cement a conservative majority for the foreseeable future. The nomination battle will likely ignite a firestorm on Capitol Hill as it comes just a year after Republicans changed the rules of the Senate in order to push through the nomination of Justice Neil Gorsuch, Trump's first nominee."
Chris' thoughts? "It's almost impossible to calculate the impact Kennedy's retirement will have on the court and the country. While Kennedy was a Republican appointee, he was viewed skeptically by many conservatives, who believed he hewed far too closely to the ideological center for their tastes. It's also difficult to overstate how important the possibility of multiple Supreme Court openings was to the grudging acceptance of Trump's candidacy by a Republican establishment that worried, at least initially, that his nomination could destroy their party for years (and maybe even decades) to come." (read more here).
You can also read Kennedy's full retirement letter here; and look at a list of potential contenders to replace Kennedy. | | | "Mamma Mia 2" comes out next month and resident ABBA fan Saba is ready. Thankfully, the soundtrack is already on Spotify. Listen to the Cher cover of "Fernando." | | HOUSE IMMIGRATION BILL GOES DOWN IN FLAMES | | | CNN's Lauren Fox reported Wednesday that the "Republican-leadership backed immigration bill went down in flames. The bill, which was never expected to pass, failed by an even wider margin than expected -- 121-301 -- and had far less Republican support than a more conservative bill that failed last week. With little fanfare and erratic presidential support, the bill represented House Republicans' most steadfast effort in decades to find a compromise between moderates and conservatives, legislation that would have provided a path to citizenship for recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, as well as $25 billion for border security, including the President's border wall." Read more here. | | ICYMI: A BIG TUESDAY PRIMARY | | Tuesday marked another notable primary night, with at least one major upset. Here are some of the big moments: - Democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeating Rep. Joe Crowley, a 10-term incumbent, in New York's 14th congressional district.
- In two key races -- one for governor of South Carolina and another for a New York House seat -- the candidate Trump backed made it into the general election, riding the President's backing to victory with base Republicans voters. Gov. Henry McMaster outlasted Republican John Warren in the South Carolina runoff, and Rep. Dan Donovan in New York easily beat former congressman Michael Grimm, who was fighting to win back his old seat.
- Mitt Romney's back! The former Massachusetts governor and Republican presidential candidate is now one step closer to Washington after winning the GOP nomination in Utah's US Senate race.
Read more big takeaways from CNN's Dan Merica and Eric Bradner here. | | ALSO ON THE HILL TODAY: WILKIE'S CONFIRMATION HEARING | | From CNN's Juana Summers: "Robert Wilkie, President Donald Trump's pick to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs, defended his record in the wake of a Washington Post report that delved into his career, including his past membership and support of organizations dedicated to preserving Confederate memorials and honoring the Confederacy.
"I will say, and I say it respectfully, I welcome the scrutiny of my entire record," Wilkie said. The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that Wilkie had defended Confederate insignia, attended Confederate memorial events and joined -- and later left -- the Sons of Confederate Veterans, an organization that has defended public displays of the Confederate flag. In a statement to The Washington Post, Wilkie said he no longer attends ceremonies honoring fallen Confederate soldiers, and a Pentagon spokeswoman told the Post that Wilkie no longer counts himself a member of the Sons of Confederate Veterans." Read more in Juana's full story here. | | | From Brenna: "Yes, Secretary Ben Carson, what an eyebrow-raising day. He was testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, the rest of us were just reacting to all of today's news. Phew. More than halfway there, y'all. Keep everyone you know up on the latest by sharing The Point and telling people to subscribe." | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba.
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