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Thursday, October 25, 2018

The Point: Can we slow our roll on Michael Avenatti?

October 25, 2018  by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Can we slow our roll on Michael Avenatti?

Everywhere you turn, Michael Avenatti is there.  

Of late, that's turned into not such a good thing for the celebrity-lawyer-turned-2020-presidential aspirant. A brief review of Avenatti's recent problems includes:

* Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, referred Avenatti and his client Julie Swetnick, who alleged that Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh attended a party where she was drugged and gang raped, to the Justice Department for possible criminal investigation Thursday. Grassley charged that Swetnick and Avenatti lied to committee investigators looking into the allegations against Kavanaugh. Avenatti denied that he or Swetnick misled investigators.

* In a Time magazine profile on him, Avenatti said that he believed that it had "better be a white male" running against President Donald Trump in 2020. Avenatti told CNN that he had been misquoted and taken out of context.

* A California judge ruled earlier this week that Avenatti had to pay almost $5 million to make good on a debt he owed to his former law partner. Avenatti responded by saying that his ex-partner owes him even more money.

* The Daily Beast published a piece suggesting that Avenatti has personally owed more than $1 million in unpaid personal taxes. Avenatti referred to the story as a "hit piece."

You get the idea. Bad story gets published. Avenatti says story isn't true. Rinse, repeat.

Avenatti casts himself as the sort of guy Democrats need to nominate in 2020 against Trump -- someone willing to say and do whatever it takes to beat Trump. "I think the party has yearned for a fighter -- a fighter for good, if you will -- for a significant period of time," he said during a visit to Iowa recently. "And for many, I'm probably seen as that individual."

One person who agrees is former Trump White House political adviser Steve Bannon. "(Avenatti's) got a fearlessness," Bannon told HBO's Bill Maher. "And he's a fighter. I think he'll go through a lot of that field, if he decides to stick with it, like a scythe through grass."

I mean, maybe? It's possible that Avenatti is like Trump -- completely immune to stories that would destroy other candidates. But remember that Trump was a famous figure for decades prior to his running for president; people have long had hard and fast opinions about him. Avenatti, on the other hand, is a newly minted celebrity, with less imprint on the public.

The Point: Avenatti could be a political unicorn, like Trump. And even if he's not, he has lots of time to make up for a tough few weeks. But let's not crown Avenatti king -- or even prince -- of anything just yet.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"He is waiting on the Rio Grande with welcome baskets and foot massages."

-- Ted Cruz, on his Senate opponent Beto O'Rourke's support for the thousands of migrants heading for the US-Mexico border.

THE POLITICS OF FEAR

What's the takeaway from the last 24 hours?

Chris adds some important context, writing that yesterday's attempted bombings are "the logical conclusion of our poisonous political environment."

"We are dealing with an act of political terrorism the breadth of which we haven't seen in a very long time," Chris writes. "The goal of these bombs was to kill or maim. Period. So what we know is that we are dealing with a coordinated attempt by a person or person(s) to inflict grievous harm on not only the most recognizable faces in the Democratic Party but also on Trump's highest-profile critics.

"Even if we draw zero conclusions about why these people and organizations were specifically targeted and whether any blame can or should be doled out to Trump for weaponizing partisanship and polarization, we are still dealing with an absolutely critical moment in the history of our politics."

CHRIS' GOOD READS

The New York Times story on Trump's cell phone usage that has him so up in arms

AWESOME CNN interactive on how much your zip code is donating to politicians

David von Drehle asks whether Claire McCaskill can win one more time?

Donnie O'Sullivan has the deets on an anti-Ted Cruz meme page that might have reached a million Texans. And no one knows who's behind it.

Michael Avenatti doesn't think his past matters

It's been almost 25 years since River Phoenix died. The Guardian's Hadley Freeman tells his story.

People treated their Sims terribly

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

This Chris Cornell cover of "Nothing Compares 2 U" is amazing.

INSTA POINT

Today: You can't separate Trump's rhetoric from the toxic political climate.

THE POINT ON YOUTUBE!

Here's the real deal about the migrant caravan

Why is President Trump making such a big talking point out of the migrant caravan? He's trying to scare his base into voting.

BEHIND THE MANHUNT

We don't know much about who federal investigators are looking for related to the bombs sent to high-profile Democrats over the last day, but we do know what investigators are looking at

Things like:
- Forensic evidence
- Surveillance footage
- Past writings and other clues


Now, to debunk the nonsense around it all being a "false flag" situation -- here's what would have had to happen for the events of Wednesday to be a false flag, according to Chris:
  1. Someone or someones who wanted to help Democrats -- and the media, I guess, somehow? -- would send a series of pipe bombs to prominent Democrats around the country.
     
  2. Then Democrats or the media or, again, someone, would have to have coordinated with the state and local police -- not to mention federal authorities -- so that law enforcement said that these were functional bombs (even though, again, according to this theory, they weren't).
Which, um, is not what happened.

"The natural reaction here is to dismiss all of this out of hand," Chris writes. "But, to not engage with this sort of conspiracy crap is to let it fester. These 'false flag' claims are like a college bar: They don't hold up when you shine a little bit of light in/on them. Let's shine that light."

BORDER WATCH

Secretary of Defense James Mattis is expected to sign an order that will send 800 troops to the US-Mexico border.

It's an attempt to bolster border military presence while a caravan of migrants from Central America travels northward, though that group remains weeks away from reaching the border

YOUR DAILY GIF

From Brenna: "It may look like Sen. Bernie Sanders is introducing this season's hottest new dance move, but really he's just out in Nevada campaigning for Rep. Jacky Rosen. Sharing this newsletter with people you know will make YOU want to dance."
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.

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