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Monday, November 19, 2018

The Point: Donald Trump made voter turnout great again!


November 19, 2018  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Donald Trump made voter turnout great again!

Election Day predictions of HUGE voter turnout are as old as Election Day itself.

There's always a slew of stories, tweets and videos about really long lines at some local precinct where no one has ever seen lines like these before. And then, usually, the voter turnout nationally turns out to be nothing special or out of the ordinary: Percentages are in the high 30s or low 40s of the voting eligible population in a midterm elections year and the low 60s in a presidential year.

Except this year!

Turnout in the 2018 midterms was 49.3% of the voting eligible population, according to projections made by the United States Election Project. If it holds, that's remarkable -- and record-breaking. 

In fact, according to stats maintained by Fair Vote, the 2018 turnout would be the highest midterms turnout in more than 100 years. The only close competitor was 1966, when 48.7% of the voting eligible population actually voted.



Perhaps the most amazing part of the turnout surge is where it came from as compared to 2014, when just 36.7% of the eligible population voted -- a 70-year low.  

What explains the difference? It's hard not to ascribe it to Donald Trump, who wasn't president in 2014, but is in 2018. Yes there are other contributing factors, but Trump is absolutely a turnout driver -- for both parties. According to the 2018 exit poll, 67% of voters said Trump was a factor in their vote, with almost four in 10 saying they saw their vote as a way to send a message of opposition to the President.

The Point: More people taking part in the democratic process is a good thing. And yes, in a weird way, we have Donald Trump to thank for it.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"If your strategy relies upon Nancy Pelosi giving up, you will lose every single time."

-- A senior Democratic aide to Clare Foran and Manu Raju on the battle over the House speakership. Chris weighed in on just how much trouble Pelosi is actually in.

TRACKING THE ANTI-PELOSI CONTINGENT

Now that Democrats have recaptured the House, there's another major vote about to take place: Leadership elections, where Nancy Pelosi is seeking to become House speaker again.

CNN's Ashley Killough, Annie Grayer, Paul LeBlanc and Tal Yellin have the latest numbers on Pelosi's current vote count -- and how many votes the California Democrat can afford to lose.

Where things stand now:
232 Democratic votes total
97 yes
26 no
43 possible no


We also know 16 Democrats have already pledged to vote against Pelosi on the House floor (and put it in writing in a letter) while others might vote "present" to oppose Pelosi without bolstering the GOP. 

CHRIS' GOOD READS

An absolutely wrenching read from the Los Angeles Times on how the state's deadliest wildfire started

The rise and fall and rise(?) of Nancy Pelosi as documented by Robert Draper

It really was a blue wave, according to Chris Alcantara

Is Beto O'Rourke the next Barack Obama?

An absolutely terrifying Eli Saslow piece about actual fake news

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

OMG. Boygenius -- Lucy Dacus, Phoebe Bridgers and Julien Baker -- did a Tiny Desk concert. Happy Monday!

THE MIDTERMS (STILL) AREN'T OVER YET

We officially have election results in many of the key races around the country -- never mind that it's nearly two weeks since Election Day.

☀️Florida: Post-recount, it's official: Republicans won both the close and highly contentious Senate and governor races in the sunshine state (Chris on how the state is a rare spot of GOP sunshine in a cloudly midterms for Republicans).

Now that the recount is over, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson has conceded to Rick Scott, making the Florida Senate seat an official Republican pickup. In the governor's race, Andrew Gillum conceded to Ron DeSantis on Saturday.

🍊California: California's Orange County is bright blue -- a new shade for the traditionally Republican area.

This weekend brought more news of Democratic SoCal gains: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, Rep. Mimi Walters and Young Kim all fell to their Democratic opponents. And the ruby red district once home to retiring Rep. Darrell Issa also flipped to blue. 

But this thing still isn't over. Here are the still-uncalled races: 
  • New Mexico-2, where Democrat Xochitl Torres Small leads Yvette Herrell.
  • Utah-4, where Republican Rep. Mia Love leads Democrat Ben McAdams.
  • Georgia-7, where Republican Rep. Rob Woodall leads Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux.
  • Mississippi Senate, where Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith will face off against Democrat Mike Espy in a November 27 runoff.

NERD PROM NEWS

Is this year's White House Correspondents Dinner no laughing matter?

Instead of a comedian charged with roasting the President (and other attendees), this year's host is historian Ron Chernow.

Instead of cracking jokes, Chernow will "share his lively, deeply researched perspectives on American politics and history at the 2019 White House Correspondents' Dinner," according to White House Correspondents' Association President Olivier Knox.

'TIS THE SEASON

Thanksgiving week has arrived, but the White House got a bit ahead of itself today.

On Monday afternoon, President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump welcomed this year's White House Christmas tree to the North Portico, delivered by horse and carriage, as is tradition.

This year's tree comes from Mountain Top Fraser Fir in Newland, North Carolina. 

That doesn't mean Thanksgiving is an afterthought -- turkeys "Peas" and "Carrots" have arrived in Washington in time for their annual presidential pardon, happening tomorrow. 

BUT FIRST, GIVE THANKS for this brief history of the White House turkey pardon, courtesy of Brenna

YOUR DAILY GIF

From Brenna: "If you had any doubt that you are behind on your holiday decorating, you are. The White House got its Christmas tree today. In other news, look at President Trump, practicing good horse handling form. Like the rest of us, horses do not like to be crept up on. Announce your love of The Point to an equestrian in your life!"
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.
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