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Thursday, November 29, 2018

The Point: Why Michael Cohen's plea deal matters


November 29, 2018  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Why Michael Cohen's plea deal matters

Michael Cohen -- a "very weak person" in the words of President Donald Trump -- made a plea deal with special counsel Robert Mueller on Thursday that should not be ignored. It's another significant moment in a probe that appears to be picking up speed and tightening the vise around some senior members of the Trump administration.

Consider what Cohen pleaded guilty to doing: Lying to Congress about the nature and extent of his dealing with Russians over a proposed Trump Tower development in Moscow. Cohen told Congress all conversations with the Russians ceased in January 2016, right around the time when Trump first faced voters in the Iowa caucuses. Turns out that Cohen was not only still talking to the Russians through June 2016, but he was also briefing members of the Trump family on the negotiations and setting up a potential trip by the presidential nominee to Russia. (The deal fell through, and Trump never traveled to Russia.)

Cohen lied, he said in the plea agreement, to protect Trump's political interests. "I made these statements to be consistent with Individual-1's political messaging and to be loyal to Individual-1," Cohen said. ("Individual 1," in case your brain fell on the pavement before reading this, is Donald Trump.)

Why does that matter? A few reasons:

1) Trump has submitted his written responses to Mueller; he did it earlier this week. We know that Mueller asked about the Trump Tower Moscow project. Since Trump denies Cohen's version of events, can we assume he did so in the written responses to Mueller as well? And if so, can one of the two men's stories be corroborated?

2) Trump is on the record, repeatedly, saying he has no business ties in Russia. 

"I have nothing to with Russia, I have nothing to do with Russia," Trump said in July 2016, a month after Cohen reportedly stopped talking about Trump Tower Moscow. "And even -- for anything. What do I have to do with Russia?" 

In early 2017, he tweeted: "Russia has never tried to use leverage over me. I HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH RUSSIA - NO DEALS, NO LOANS, NO NOTHING!"

Sooooooo....

The Point: There's no smoking gun in Cohen's plea deal. But there's LOTS of smoke.  

-- Chris

REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK

Lauren checked in with with our colleague Marshall Cohen, who covers the Russia investigation for CNN, to ask our two biggest questions about today's Cohen developments.

LD: Is this Cohen news surprising?
MC: 
Yes and no. We've known for some time now that Cohen has been voluntarily talking to Mueller. The shocker came this morning, when some of the content of his cooperation was dramatically revealed to the public. With today's news, Mueller revealed that he has been pulled deeper than previously known into Trump's personal business dealings, thus crossing Trump's so-called "red line."

LD: What happens next?
MC: 
There are plenty of unsettled questions. For one, what else did Cohen spill to Mueller's prosecutors? And could this information implicate anyone else, maybe even the President? Cohen was privy to a lot what went on at the Trump Organization and inside the Trump campaign. Cohen has clearly burned his bridges with the Trump orbit and is squarely in Mueller's camp.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Even if he was right, it doesn't matter, because I was allowed to do whatever I wanted during the campaign."

-- President Donald Trump on Michael Cohen, whom Trump called "weak" and "not a very smart person." Cohen pleaded guilty to lying about Trump's knowledge of a building project in Moscow during the election.  

INTRODUCING: THE WARREN DOCTRINE

So, Elizabeth Warren just delivered a major foreign policy speech in Washington. Consider it the Warren Doctrine.

Peppered with references to international trade, war and a more progressive foreign policy tack overall, the Massachusetts senator flexed her foreign policy bona fides -- a critical move for any would-be presidential candidate. She's also got a corresponding essay in Foreign Affairs that went live with the speech.

Warren ended it with a twist on her signature line: "None of this will be easy – but we persist."

Lauren was there -- and chatted with Thomas Schwartz, a professor of history and political science at Vanderbilt, about why this speech matters.

"Warren is identified largely through her progressive politics, most of whose issues relate to domestic questions of social welfare and economic regulation," Schwartz said. "This speech may well be designed to set down some markers and distinguish her from the very large cast of characters – Booker, Harris, Gillibrand, etc. – now running for President."

And get ready for more of these speeches from other possible 2020ers.

"Hillary Clinton didn't have this problem in 2016 because she had been secretary of state, something which she used effectively against Bernie Sanders in the primaries. Barack Obama didn't need to do as much on this because he could claim he was right on the one issue most Democrats cared about in 2008 -- getting out of Iraq," he added. "So I think you will see many of the potential Democrats running for president -- outside of Joe Biden, who has plenty of experience -- giving speeches like Warren."

Fun fact: American University, where Warren delivered this speech, is also where John F. Kennedy said "our problems are manmade -- therefore, they can be solved by man" 55 years ago.

BETO 2020?

Beto O'Rourke lost in Texas, but 2020's coming ...

Beto O'Rourke emerged as a Democratic superstar during the 2018 midterms. Although he lost his Senate race, Chris explains why the Texas congressman should seriously consider a 2020 run.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

Stu Rothenberg on why 2018 might not tell us much of anything about 2020

The swamp of Paul Manafort and Roger Stone, by WaPo's Manuel Roig-Franzia

An invaluable tool to track the Russia investigation

This Les Moonves story in the NYTimes. Whoa boy.

"Monopoly for Millennials" sounds terrible

There's a "no makeup" makeup now?

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Welcome to Day 2 of our Christmas music spectacular. Today's pick? "Frosty the Snowman" by The Ronettes, Chris' favorite Christmas song. Yes, really.

INSTA POINT

Today's topic: Diving deeper into Cohen's plea deal.

CANCELLED PLANS

President Donald Trump's planned meeting with Russian President Validmir Putin is OFF.

In the wake of Cohen's plea agreement news Thursday morning, Trump told reporters he believed it is "a very good time to have a meeting" with Putin.

But then he tweeted twice after boarding Air Force One to Argentina for the G20 summit, cancelling the meeting. 

"Based on the fact that the ships and sailors have not been returned to Ukraine from Russia, I have decided it would be best for all parties concerned to cancel my previously scheduled meeting (...) in Argentina with President Vladimir Putin. I look forward to a meaningful Summit again as soon as this situation is resolved!"

THIS TOWN đźŤ¦

It bills itself as "the only ice cream truck defending the independent investigation of Robert Mueller into Trump's ties to Russian attacks on our democracy."

And today, the "GUILTY PLEASures" ice cream truck was handing out free frozen treats following the guilty plea of Michael Cohen, courtesy of the left-wing group MoveOn, reports CNN's Betsy Klein.

Today's flavors: Southern District of New York Cheesecake, White Russian, and Mo'challusion, among others. 

IN HONOR OF THROWBACK THURSDAY

We present the most iconic White House Christmas Tree performance of all time.

Patti LaBelle's 1996 rendition of "This Christmas" has it all: Missing backup singers, snafus with the cue cards and a crowd awkwardly waving fake candles.

LaBelle admittedly "blew it."

But she pushed through to the end -- and still completely nailed it.

YOUR DAILY GIF

From Brenna: "House Speaker Paul Ryan gave a very nice farewell speech earlier today. He was just a young lad without a beard when he got to Congress. TBH, he was a young-ish man without a beard just a few weeks ago, so not a ton has changed. Tell your friends to bid farewell to their days of not knowing what's going on in politics by sharing The Point with them."
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.
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