The Federal Reserve raised the fed funds target rate for the second time this year (the fourth rate hike since this tightening cycle began in December 2015). The target rate is now 1-1.25%, the first time the rate has been over 1% since 2008. The fed funds rate only controls the very shortest interest rates – overnight borrowing between banks. At the moment, longer rates such as the 10-year bond are on a frolic of their own. The 10-year yield has FALLEN to its lowest level this year because of concerns over the health and strength of the U.S. economy. Hang on: Long rates going down; short rates going up – how can this be? It's simple: The Fed's mission in raising rates is part of a much bigger, grander project than what is happening today or tomorrow in the bond market. They are embarked on a normalization of monetary policy. That means bringing interest rates up from the extraordinarily low levels where they have languished since the financial crisis, to something more suited for normal times. So long as inflation remains around 2%, and unemployment remains low, they will continue to raise rates. Expect another rate hike this year. -Richard.Quest@cnn.com |
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