| | | | 4 scary numbers for Republicans in 2018 | | Over the weekend at Camp David, Republican congressional leaders huddled with President Donald Trump to talk about, among other things, the 2018 election.
It was a "constructive" discussion that was "grounded in reality," according to a source familiar with the talks, report my colleagues Phil Mattingly, Jeff Zeleny and David Wright.
The reality -- and I'm not sure how much of this was accurately conveyed to Trump -- is that every leading indicator points to a wave headed Republicans' way that could well deliver control of the House to Democrats in 2019.
Here are four numbers that tell the story (with a special thank you to super-lobbyist Bruce Mehlman's always terrific quarterly PowerPoint): - 40: That's the average -- AVERAGE -- seat loss for the president's party in midterm election since 1962 when the president's approval rating is under 50%. Trump's approval rating in the Gallup weekly tracking poll released Monday afternoon? 37%.
- 12: That's the average Democratic lead in the generic congressional ballot as of late December. ("If the election were today, would you vote for a Republican or a Democrat to represent you?") That's worrisome when you compare it to where the generic stood in other major wave elections. At this time in the 2014 election, a very good election for Republicans, Democrats had a nearly 2 point edge on the generic ballot. In 2006, the midterm election where Democrats won back control of Congress, the party's generic ballot edge was only 10 points.
- 3: There have only been three midterm elections -- 1934, 1998 and 2002 -- in the last century where the president's party didn't lose House seats. In all three of those elections there were major extenuating circumstances -- Great Depression, Clinton impeachment and September 11 terrorist attacks -- that upset the historical trend. Short of that sort of cataclysm, however, the president's party usually gets walloped.
- 0: Exactly none of the past five presidents have seen their job approval numbers go up in the year before their first midterm election. (Shout out to Republican pollster Lance Tarrance for this data point!). President Obama went from +13 in approval in 2009 to +1 in 2010. Ronald Reagan went from +18 in 1981 to -3 in 1982. You get the idea. Barring a massive unforeseen event, it's very unlikely Trump's approval rating gets much better between now and November.
The Point: Yes, there are exceptions to every political rule. And Trump proved he could buck conventional wisdom by winning in 2016. But Trump's current approval numbers and the massive weight of electoral history suggest that Republicans are in very deep trouble heading into the 2018 midterm. Very deep trouble. | | 🚨RETIREMENT WATCH (AGAIN)🚨 | | Another day, another congressional retirement. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce, a California Republican, said Monday he will not seek re-election.
"In this final year of my Foreign Affairs Committee chairmanship, I want to focus fully on the urgent threats facing our nation, including: the brutal, corrupt and dangerous regimes in Pyongyang and Tehran, Vladimir Putin's continued efforts to weaponize information to fracture Western democracies, and growing terrorist threats in Africa and Central Asia," he said in a statement. "With this in mind, and with the support of my wife, Marie, I have decided not to seek re-election in November."
His retirement marks another major opportunity for Democratic takeover. As CNN's Eric Bradner pointed out on Twitter: Royce's CA-39 is an even PVI district that Clinton won by 9 points last year. Bradner filed a story from Fullerton, California, last August from this district on the seven House seats Dems hope to pick off this year.
Royce's announcement comes just days after Florida Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis announced on "Fox & Friends" that he will be a candidate for governor in 2018, which opens up his House seat.
In case you need a refresher, CNN keeps a running list of who's announced their plans to resign, retire or run for another office. | | | Believe it or not, long before Oprah's headline-making Golden Globes speech on Sunday, Quinnipiac University conducted a national poll asking the media mogul's favorability rating should she run for president. The poll was conducted in March 2017. CNN's Ryan Struyk has more: American voters are big fans of Oprah Winfrey -- but asked 10 months ago, most didn't want her to run for President. Voters had a favorable view of Winfrey by a two-to-one split last March, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. A majority of voters, 52%, said they viewed her favorably, including a whopping 72% favorable vs. 7% unfavorable rating among Democratic voters, an optimistic sign for a potential Democratic primary. She also earned favorable marks from 51% of independents and 30% of Republicans.
There's just one problem: They're not sure about her as president of the United States. Nearly seven in 10 voters overall, including a majority of Democratic voters, said in the survey they didn't want Winfrey to run. Only 21% — or less than half of those who have a favorable view of her — wanted her to launch a bid for the White House. Opinions can change a lot in 10 months.
Read more in Ryan's full story here. | | "Given the choice between Oprah and our current president, I'm on the bus with Oprah, traveling the country and urging people to vote."
-Jimmy Kimmel | | | | "Remember Me" (from the movie "Coco") didn't win best song at the Golden Globes on Sunday night. But it should have. | | | A source close to Mitt Romney told CNN's Jake Tapper: "Mitt Romney was treated over the summer for prostate cancer. He was treated surgically by Dr. Thomas Ahlering at UC Irvine Hospital in California. His prognosis is good; he was successfully treated." Read more in CNN's full story here. | | SALVADORANS LOSE PROTECTIONS | | CNN's Tal Kopan reports: "The Trump administration will end protections for certain nationals of El Salvador, a move that could leave more than 200,000 immigrants who have lived in the United States more than 15 years without any legal status, the Department of Homeland Security announced Monday.
"The termination will come with an 18-month delay, as the administration recently did in ending Temporary Protected Status for other countries. That time will allow individuals who have lived under the status to either seek other means of staying in the United States or prepare to leave. The delay means the more than 250,000 TPS protectees will have until September 9, 2019, to either find a different way to stay in the United States or prepare to leave."
Read more in Tal's full story here. | | ICYMI: TAPPER AND MILLER'S INTERVIEW | | | White House senior adviser Stephen Miller was combative and obsequious in an interview Sunday with CNN's Jake Tapper. As Chris points out, it was "something to behold." Check out Chris' list of the 24 most grotesque lines in the Miller interview, including this one: "If you want to have an answer to your question, and not to get hysterical, then I will answer it." | | MEANWHILE, IN CALIFORNIA... | | Billionaire Democratic megadonor Tom Steyer is officially ruling out running for office in 2018. Instead, he will spend $30 million on an effort to win control of the House.
Per CNN's Eric Bradner: "Steyer is pumping the money into his NextGen America group's youth program, which is aimed at organizing and turning out millennial voters. Steyer said he is also 'doubling' his push for President Donald Trump's impeachment, which he has already backed with a $20 million national advertising campaign. That campaign, called 'Need to Impeach,' has helped Steyer build a massive email list."
Read more in Eric's full story here. | | | Throwback to Oprah during a campaign swing with Obama in 2007. Happy Monday! Just another daily reminder to tell people you know to subscribe to The Point. | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba. | | | | | | |
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