| | | | How Kamala Harris wins |  | | To the surprise of no one, California Sen. Kamala Harris formally entered the 2020 presidential race on Monday, touting her background as a prosecutor -- and a barrier-breaker -- in her announcement speech.
Anyone who reads what I write -- and I hope that includes you, dear reader! -- knows that I think Harris is a top-tier candidate for the nomination because of her base of support in California, her profile as an African-American and biracial woman, her liberal voting record and her charisma. (Harry Enten and I have Harris at No. 1 on our most recent ranking of the 2020 field.)
But now that she's officially running, it's worth looking at the path Harris needs to follow to be the nominee. What states does she need to win? What states can she afford to lose?
Let's start with what we know about the early 2020 calendar, courtesy of the terrific Frontloading HQ site:
February 3: Iowa caucuses
February 11: New Hampshire primary
February 22: Nevada caucuses
February 29: South Carolina primary
Harris' travel schedule this week tells you a lot about how she will approach that first month of votes. She will make her first official stop as a candidate in South Carolina on Friday -- before heading to her hometown of Oakland, California, to deliver a formal announcement speech over the weekend.
The South Carolina electorate seems ready-made for Harris as, historically, African-American voters cast more than half of all votes in Democratic presidential primaries in the state. Then-Sen. Barack Obama scored a crushing victory over Hillary Clinton in South Carolina in 2008, a win that gave his candidacy a jolt of momentum heading into a series of caucuses in February 2008 that gave him a delegate lead he never relinquished.
Obama's path is instructive to Harris -- and not just because of their race. Obama won the Iowa caucuses on January 3, which allowed him to weather a surprising defeat in the New Hampshire primary on January 8 and make it with some momentum left to the South Carolina primary on January 26.
The question for Harris is whether she can replicate Obama's success in Iowa or, if not, whether she can show well in New Hampshire. Given the size of the expected field -- 18 to 24 candidates -- winning may be less important to Harris than simply overperforming expectations with a top-three showing.
If she can do that, she will be very well-positioned to win in South Carolina and, with that victory under her belt, will be a force going into the bigger population states that vote in March -- none bigger than California, which is set to vote on March 3 and where Harris would be an overwhelming favorite.
If she can't win in Iowa or New Hampshire -- and if Nevada's caucuses, where she should do well because of her California roots, take a back seat to the other three early-state votes as they have in the past few cycles -- the question becomes whether the race moves past her before February 29 in South Carolina. In such a large field that may not happen as quickly, but history suggests that Iowa and New Hampshire can -- and usually do -- radically alter the state of the race in the course of eight days.
The Point: Harris has all the tools to be the last Democrat standing next year. But the map doesn't have an obvious win for her until February 29 -- making a strong showing in Iowa or New Hampshire a near-must.
-- Chris | | "Folks, ride Amtrak."
-- Former Vice President Joe Biden entreating MLK Day event attendees to travel by Biden's favorite train. | | | Kamala Harris: Is officially running for president. The California senator made the announcement Monday morning -- and plans to hold a rally in Oakland on Sunday, followed by a CNN-hosted town hall at Drake University in Iowa the next day.
Cory Booker: The New Jersey senator said Monday that he's "not that far from making a decision myself" on running for president. Meanwhile, former President Jimmy Carter told Booker he should run for president live on Booker's Instagram story.
Howard Schultz: The Starbucks CEO is exploring a run for president as an independent candidate.
You need it? We've got it: A list of the Democrats running (or exploring a run) for president. | | | James Blake's newly released "Tell Them" is exactly the mesmerizingly chill tune Lauren needs for getting back into the work week. | |  | | Today's topic: Kamala Harris is in! | | We're now 31 days into the government shutdown. With no end in sight (despite Trump's offer this weekend for a temporary DACA deal in return for $5.7 billion for permanent border wall funding), we do have some idea of what's on the horizon thanks to CNN's Z. Byron Wolf and Curt Merrill.
Friday, January 25: Federal courts run out of operating money - Criminal cases are expected to continue despite a lapse in funds, but many federal courts have already begun delaying civil cases involving the federal government. It's not clear if possible furloughs would affect any other court operations or deadlines.
- It's also a federal pay date -- marking the second missed paycheck for federal workers affected by the shutdown.
Monday, January 28: Tax returns will go out - The IRS has pledged to recall furloughed workers and to begin accepting tax filings on schedule on January 28.
Wednesday, January 30: GDP report could be incomplete or delayed and federal housing assistance contracts are expiring | |
WATCH: IN OBSERVANCE OF MLK DAY | |  | DC students mark King's legacy | | | About 100 fifth graders from Washington, D.C.'s, Watkins Elementary recited Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have a Dream" speech on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in 2015, where King first delivered the speech in 1963. A throwback hat tip to Brenna for digging up this clip! | |
WHEN YOU CAN'T SING YOUR TRUTH | | The Russian pop star who initiated that Trump Tower meeting had to cancel his upcoming US tour dates.
Emin Agalarov had to scrap his four-city US tour because he couldn't reach a deal related to testimony to law enforcement and Congress around that meeting.
As CNN's Kara Scannell writes, "Mueller's investigators and several congressional committees are interested in speaking with Agalarov because of his role in the June 2016 Trump Tower meeting attended by Donald Trump Jr., his brother-in-law Jared Kushner, then-Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and a Russian lawyer promising dirt on Hillary Clinton." | | | | | | |
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