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Thursday, January 31, 2019

The Point: 2020 will be the least white election ever


January 31, 2019  | by Chris Cillizza and Sophie Tatum

2020 will be the least white election ever

In the 2020 election, white voters will make up less than 67% of all eligible voters, according to projections made by the Pew Research Center and released this week.  It marks the first time in American political history that white voters are less than seven in 10 of all eligible voters in a presidential election.

That's a significant moment in the changing face of America -- and has potentially massive consequences for our politics. White voters have long been a bulwark of the GOP coalition in national races while nonwhites have become increasingly Democratic over the years. At the same time, the white vote has been shrinking as a percentage of the overall electorate while the nonwhite vote has been growing.

According to the Pew calculations, those demographic changes will only continue in 2020. (Here's a detailed explainer of how they arrived at their estimates.)  This is what the composition of eligible voters will look like in 2020 via Pew:

White: 66.7%
Hispanic 13.3%
Black 12.5%
Asian: 4.7%

And here's the racial breakdown of the last two presidential elections:

2016
White: 71%
Black: 12%
Hispanic: 11%
Asian: 4%

2012
White: 72%
Black 13%
Hispanic: 10%
Asian: 3%

The big caveat in looking at those three sets of numbers: The 2020 projections are based on eligible voters, not actual voters. And history has shown that simply because you are eligible to vote does not mean you a) register to vote or b) actually vote. That is especially true among nonwhites.

The Point: If the 2020 electorate looks anything close to how Pew thinks it will, the demographic challenge before Donald Trump is massive. He would either need to win white voters by a considerably larger margin than he did in 2016 (Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 20 points among whites) or find a way to make inroads into the nonwhite vote, which seems like a massive task given his first two years in office.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I'm going to hydrate first. That's very important."

-- Stacey Abrams, who will be delivering the Democratic response to President Donald Trump's State of the Union address next week, on how she plans to prepare for the high-profile role.

THE WALL HITS A WALL


It doesn't appear congressional Democrats and the White House are any closer to coming to an agreement over border wall funding as the February 15 deadline to come up with a longterm government funding deal continues to inch closer.

Today, President Trump tweeted, "The Wall is getting done one way or the other!"

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi replied: "There's not going to be any wall money in the legislation."

Annnnd the chances of Trump declaring a national emergency at the border just went up, Chris writes.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

Ron Brownstein nicely explains the coming "Medicare for all" fight for 2020 Democrats

The 15 things you need to know from Chris Christie's memoir via JVL

Twitter released its after-action report on the 2018 election
 
A Valentine's Day tragedy

Help us solve this VERY important mystery!

Romomania is real

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

New Cass McCombs music. If you don't know him, now's the time.

INSTA POINT

Today's topic: We're now much closer to Donald Trump declaring a national emergency at the border

3,000 MORE TROOPS TO THE BORDER

More than 3,000 additional active duty troops will be deployed to the US southern border in the coming days, according to several defense officials. 

These additional troops will join the 2,300 troops already on the border, CNN's Ryan Browne and Barbara Starr report. 

Trump confirmed the move in a tweet, writing: "More troops being sent to the Southern Border to stop the attempted Invasion of Illegals, through large Caravans, into our Country. We have stopped the previous Caravans, and we will stop these also."

CHRISTIE'S TAKE ON TRUMP


Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie explained President Donald Trump this way in an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper Thursday:

"Knowing him as long as I do, sometimes words and actions don't match, and it's much more important to watch the actions than it is to listen to the words."

MARK YOUR CALENDAR 🗓

For March 1!

As trade talks between the United States and China entered their second day on Thursday, President Trump suggested he could reach a deal with China by that deadline, CNN's Kevin Liptak, Jeremy Diamond and Donna Borak report.

Or maybe not...

"This is going to be a very big deal, or it's going to be a deal that we'll just postpone for a little," Trump said.

FROM RIDICULED TO INTERVIEWED 


President Donald Trump is looking for a new head of the World Bank -- and he's considering Heidi Cruz, the wife of Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, a former Republican presidential hopeful and rival of Trump. 

Heidi Cruz is a managing director of the investment division at Goldman Sachs in the company's Houston office, CNN's Betsy Klein reports.

Throwback Thursday: If you recall, a contentious back-and-forth during the 2016 election led to Trump retweeting an unflattering image of Heidi Cruz beside a photo of his wife, Melania Trump, with the caption: "no need to 'spill the beans' the images are worth a thousand words."

As retaliation, Cruz called Trump a "sniveling coward" and called on then-candidate Trump to "leave Heidi the hell alone."

But now, all seems forgiven: "It was an honor for Heidi to be considered by the Administration as a finalist for President of the World Bank," Cruz spokeswoman Catherine Frazier told CNN in a statement.

YOUR DAILY GIF

From Brenna: "No, Nancy Pelosi was not schooling the press on how to row a boat. She was talking about DACA. Share The Point with your favorite coxswain!"
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.
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