| | | | Between the US and Iran, Confusion Reigns | | President Trump has said he wants to negotiate a new deal with Iran, but no one seems to think that will happen anytime soon. After surveying diplomats and policymakers from key countries, Sanam Vakil writes in Foreign Affairs of wide consensus that America has "called for something—a deal—that requires diplomacy but then consistently reached only for the bluntest of coercive instruments," failing to lay any groundwork for talks or to consider what Iran's interests might be.
As the US escalates its pressure campaign, Iran has a menu of potential responses, Frida Ghitis writes at the World Politics Review—from attacking US troops in the region to blocking Gulf oil shipments to restarting its nuclear program to holding tight until Trump leaves office—but it will make those calculations without any clarity on what the US really wants. | | It Takes a Village to Negotiate With North Korea | | North Korea has resumed some of its provocations, but John Merrill writes at the Nikkei Asian Review that we shouldn't worry about where things are headed. Since the failed Hanoi summit, Russia, China, and Japan all seem less certain the US can reach an accord with North Korea bilaterally and have signaled appetites for getting involved and warming their relations with Kim Jong-Un.
China, meanwhile, appears uniquely well positioned to help, Chan Young Bang writes at the South China Morning Post: As North Korea's closest ally integrates with the world economy and starts cooperating with international institutions, Xi Jinping can show Kim the way toward economic reform and openness. | | The Eurosceptics Back Off | | | Europe faces a moment of political irony: Populist, anti-EU parties are poised to make significant gains in European elections later this month, but the EU itself appears to be as popular as ever with residents, Daniel Gros of the Center for European Policy Studies writes at Project Syndicate, with the economy improved and the migration crisis under control.
As a consequence, populist parties have backed off their demands to leave the EU or break it apart; they lack a powerful anti-EU agenda, and if they gain more power in Brussels, Gros argues, they won't threaten European coherence so much as they'll open a healthy debate. | | What can a German barbecue teach us about the unexpected problems caused by far-right populism? Quite a bit, by Der Spiegel's reckoning: After a far-right politician was told he wasn't welcome at a Labor Day barbecue hosted by two unions (despite being a union member himself), the paper notes that German social organizations of all stripes are being forced to decide whether or not to welcome members with far-right political affiliations. The barbecue incident illustrated just how thoroughly far-right populism has seeped into the national culture.
As the Alternative für Deutschland raises new questions about what beliefs are acceptable, German organizations from schools to church groups are similarly struggling to decide whether to shun members who belong to AfD or other far-right groups; it's a political problem for institutions at various levels of society. | | Does the Law of War Apply to Robots? | | For six years, the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons has been debating how to handle autonomous weapons systems, and it's yet to come up with an answer, writes Ariel Conn in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Lethal autonomous weapons are becoming increasingly possible, with autonomous drones, underwater vehicles, and tanks at various stages of development, and it's not yet clear whether international conventions do, or should, allow those machines to kill people.
As militaries seek to develop AI-driven weapons that can "swarm" adversaries, and as governments may be tempted to patrol their borders with robots that can use deadly force, Conn warns that if these weapons aren't banned soon, "lethal autonomous weapons could become ultra-cheap, easily accessible weapons of mass destruction." | | | | | | |
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