| | | | Tech's 'Globalized Model' Is Collapsing | | | President Trump's effective ban on Huawei signals that "tech's globalized model is falling apart," Charles Rollet writes at Foreign Policy. The world is moving into a new phase of tech competition, in which the US and China will develop their own technological systems in parallel, now that supply chains are being decoupled, Rollet predicts. Blocking Huawei's supply of component parts from Western firms will hurt the Chinese tech giant—as will Google blocking Huawei from using its Android platform—but we can expect China now to develop its own phone operating system, processors, semiconductor technology, and the tools to manufacture them, writes Bloomberg's Tim Culpan, predicting a "a digital iron curtain that separates the world into two distinct, mutually exclusive technological spheres." | | Are Fears About Trump Coming to Pass? | | | In assessing the likelihood of war with Iran, Philip H. Gordon makes a larger observation about President Trump's foreign policy in Foreign Affairs: The impulsive president took office raising fears that he'd spark a military conflict, and since then, we've seen a pattern emerge in Trump's dealings with adversaries: lots of bluster, hopes for a grand deal, and the US finally backed into a corner, with fewer policy options than when a diplomatic crisis began. Trump's approach to diplomacy hasn't changed, and he's now surrounded by fewer level-headed advisers to constrain him and help avoid mistakes, Gordon writes; Iran is just one example, but if things go wrong, initial fears about Trump will have borne out. | |
Why the US Should Condition Its Aid to Israel
| | | The US has meekly watched Israel defy its policy wishes, but there's a simple way it can exert some leverage, Peter Beinart argues in Forward: conditioning military aid. Unlike military aid sent to other countries, US funding heads to Israel largely without strings, Beinart points out (Israel doesn't have to spend it on US weapons, for instance), and Beinart recommends either blocking funds for particular activities America opposes or dangling the suspension of aid altogether, to gain influence over Israeli defense decisions. It worked before under Ford, Carter, and Reagan, and it might work again, Beinart suggests. | | What's at Stake in Europe's Elections | | | The EU's parliamentary elections this week will test the forces of populism that have swept across Europe in recent years, but they'll also determine Europe's position on the world stage, writes former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt in a Project Syndicate op-ed. With China on the rise, and America no longer an ally to be counted on, Europe must choose a new strategic direction, Bildt writes: "between securing its own place on the global stage and becoming a playground for other powers." Writing in The Guardian, Natalie Nougayrède agrees, positing that Europe must rediscover its defining spirit in the face of outside forces like Putin's aggressive Russia, Xi's growing China, and Trump's "America first" United States—and must decide if it will play a part in addressing international crises outside its borders. | | Reasons to Worry About Taiwan | | | There are reasons to be concerned that the tense-but-stable equilibrium between Taiwan and China could be upset, writes Shelley Rigger of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Among them are swings in Taiwanese politics, as unpredictable 2020 elections could bring a range of results; China's success in turning countries away from recognizing Taiwan diplomatically; and America's unpredictable foreign policy, which could turn Taiwan into a tool of US interests, confirm Beijing's worst suspicions, and ultimately provoke China. In a paper detailing what the US should do, the Center for a New American Security's Harry Krejsa advises bolstering Taiwan's economy by promoting regional trade and helping it acquire cheaper weapons (like sea mines) that will provoke Beijing less than bigger-ticket items while deterring Chinese aggression more successfully. | | | | | | |
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