| | | | America's Forever Wars Problem: NYT | | The absolute number of U.S. troops deployed around the world may have shrunk over the past six decades. But the reach of America's military has not, the New York Times editorializes. From headline-making engagements in Afghanistan, Iraq and now Niger, to out of sight activity in Jordan, Thailand and the mysterious "unknown" category, it is becoming increasingly clear that America has a forever wars problem.
"[I]t's time to take stock of how broadly American forces are already committed to far-flung regions and to begin thinking hard about how much of that investment is necessary, how long it should continue and whether there is a strategy beyond just killing terrorists. Which Congress, lamentably, has not done. If the public is quiet, that is partly because so few families bear so much of this military burden, and partly because America is not involved in anything comparable to the Vietnam War, when huge American casualties produced sustained public protest. It is also because Congress has spent little time considering such issues in a comprehensive way or debating why all these deployments are needed," the Times argues.
"The military is essential to national security, but it is not the only thing keeping America safe. So do robust diplomacy and America's engagement in multilateral institutions, both of which we have faulted Mr. Trump for ignoring or undercutting. The Pentagon, by contrast, thrives…Senators who balk at paying for health care and the basic diplomatic missions of the State Department approved a $700 billion defense budget for 2017-18, far more than Mr. Trump even requested."
| | Why China Will Win the Future | | There is a growing confidence among officials in Beijing that China is rising even as the West declines, writes Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times. To understand why, look in part at the industries of the future.
"More significant than the raw growth figures is China's success in the new economy and in cutting-edge technologies. The Chinese point, with justifiable pride, to the fact that the country is well ahead of the U.S. and Europe in mobile-payment technology. China has made faster progress towards a 'cashless society' than most developed economies of the West. It is routine for Chinese consumers to pay for small items, such as food at a street stall, using their mobile phones. Alipay and WeChat Pay, the most common mobile payments systems, have become symbols of Chinese innovation; both the government and the private sector are confident of many more breakthroughs in the coming decade in a range of fields including robotics, drones, green technology and artificial intelligence," Rachman writes.
"The growing sophistication of the Chinese economy will challenge Western assumption (increasingly, just a hope) that U.S. and European companies can continue to dominate the high-tech economy, leaving China to concentrate on the lower end of the value chain. China's emergence as a major exporter of capital also means that its companies will inevitably increase their presence as owners of physical and intellectual assets in the West." | | Latin America's Coming Populist Wave? | | | An election wave in Latin America over the next 12 months will see almost two-in-three voters in the region choosing a new leader. Yet despite the broad economic gains, there are signs that voters are frustrated and angry with their political leaders, write Brian Winter and Robert Muggah in Foreign Policy. As a result, "there is a real risk of hard populist turns to the right and the left that could radically change policies toward security, trade, the economy, and Latin America's relationships with the world -- including the United States."
"Most of the region's economies are again growing after six years of crisis. This uptick is admittedly modest -- about 1.2 percent expected regional GDP growth in 2017, compared to a projected global average of 3.6 percent. But the sound fiscal policies embraced by several governments have analysts predicting regional growth of around 2 percent in 2018," they write.
Yet, "according to the latest polls, faith in democratic politics around Latin America is at historic lows. The proportion of Latin Americans supporting democracy slid from 66 percent in 2014 to roughly 58 percent today, with more than 40 percent saying they are prepared to support a military coup to tackle crime and corruption. Young people are especially disillusioned -- roughly 20 million of Latin American 15-29 year-olds are unemployed. Many are taking to the streets -- and their digital equivalents -- to vent their frustrations. The prospect of low-paying jobs is forcing a good number into the informal economy, including crime. Latin America already has 43 of the 50 most murderous cities in the world." | | Why Abe's Big Win Matters | | Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may have secured a landslide victory for his Liberal Democratic Party on Sunday by focusing on the economy and the threat posed by North Korea, the Wall Street Journal's Alastair Gale reports. But the most far-reaching consequence of the result could be that it helps Abe push forward his pet project of rewriting the country's pacifist constitution.
"In May this year, on the 70th anniversary of the constitution being imposed by occupying American forces, Mr. Abe said increasing security threats, an aging society and the need for economic revival were among reasons lawmakers should discuss potential changes. He set 2020 as a target for the revision," Gale writes.
"Mr. Abe's personal focus -- and the most contentious proposed revision -- is to Article 9 of the document, headed 'Renunciation of War.' The clause says Japan won't maintain armed forces to ensure it will never wage war.
"In reality, Japan's military was reformed in the 1950s but tasked with a purely defensive role, including disaster relief, and called the Self-Defense Force. National opinion polls show Japanese are highly supportive of the SDF, which is one the world's most modern militaries."
| | China Gets Tough on Polluters | | After years of talk but little action in much of the country, Chinese officials are cracking down on pollution in a big way, writes Rob Schmitz for NPR. That means a rare dose of blue skies for many citizens.
"In the past year, China's Ministry of Environment has sent inspectors to 10 provinces, where they've reprimanded, fined, or charged officials in more than 80,000 factories with criminal offenses. Entire swaths of Eastern China have halted production, prompting some companies to move entire supply chains to countries like India and Bangladesh to meet their orders," Schmitz writes.
| | U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is scheduled to arrive in Pakistan on Tuesday, continuing a trip that has already taken in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Afghanistan and Iraq, and will include India and Switzerland.
China's Communist Party Congress concludes Tuesday. Wang Xiangwei writes in the South China Morning Post that President Xi Jinping's opening speech last week "boiled down to this fundamental conclusion: as the party tightens its grip on 'everything,' it will also do whatever it can to fulfil the Chinese people's aspirations for a better life in exchange for the legitimacy to maintain authoritarian rule at home."
Kenya is scheduled to hold a re-run of its presidential election Thursday after the initial result was annulled by the country's Supreme Court in September over irregularities. "That the ballot papers have had to be printed overseas – candidates and parties were unwilling to trust local firms – is evidence of the acrimony and mutual suspicion that characterizes politics in Kenya," Jason Burke reports for The Guardian. | | | | | | |
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