| | | | How America is Drifting into War | | Don't be fooled by President Trump's more moderate rhetoric over North Korea during his trip to Seoul earlier this week. The truth is, the current "strategic momentum" could well lead us to war, writes Evan Osnos in the New Yorker.
"Chalk it up to Trump fatigue or North Korea fatigue, or a combination of the two, but members of America's political class -- the 'blob' of government officials, donors, and media types -- have started to talk about war with Pyongyang as an increasingly likely prospect," Osnos writes.
"Last week, I spoke to a former Cabinet secretary, a Democrat, who told me that if he were in the government today he would support attacking North Korea, in order to prevent it from launching a strike on America. This was not a vox-pop interview at the mall with a casual news consumer; it was a conversation with a seasoned American official who is inexpert on Asia but otherwise well informed and influential. It was a worrisome indicator not because the former secretary is privy to secret information -- by his account, he is not -- but, rather, because it reflects an emerging bout of groupthink that needs to be checked.
| | President Trump flipped the script during his visit to China on Thursday, heaping praise on a country – and its trade practices – that he had previously strongly criticized. Next, Trump heads to Vietnam for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders' meeting before concluding his 13-day Asia trip in Manila at the East Asia Summit. - No surprises here. Ely Ratner, Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, emails Global Briefing that there was nothing particularly surprising during Trump's visit.
"The trip was heavy on ceremony, reflecting Beijing's two principal priorities: First; boosting President Xi Jinping's image at home and abroad; and second, feting Donald Trump in an attempt to steer him away from the hardline view on China that is coalescing inside his administration," Ratner says. "Trump played the part of obsequious guest, heaping outsized and undeserved praise on Xi at the expense of U.S. values and interests."
"There were also no major breakthroughs. The Trump administration made clear even before the trip that, contrary to usual practice, the visit would not be used as a negotiating session or forcing function on major issues. The business deals signed on the sidelines of the summit did nothing to address the structural problems in the economic relationship.
"In the final analysis, this was the least important stop among Trump's five-country tour in Asia. Despite the pomp and circumstance, Air Force One departs for Vietnam without an honest effort by either side to resolve the fundamental issues that are driving Washington and Beijing toward strategic rivalry." "While it is true that without the U.S., the economic impact of the agreement will be much smaller -- TPP 11 only makes up 13.5% of the world's gross domestic product and 15.2% of global trade volumes, as opposed to 38.2% and 26.5% with the U.S. -- it is a statement of intent from the Asia-Pacific nations that multilateral trade is the future for them," Tani says.
"It will also give member nations a strong hand against the U.S. as the world's biggest economy looks to draw favorable deals under bilateral trade agreements."
| | If Putin Really Wants to Hurt U.S., Watch Here Next… | | | Western worries over Russian efforts to undermine the existing international order since the U.S. election have focused on potential Russian efforts to influence elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands. But if Vladimir Putin wants to hurt the U.S. and its allies there's an upcoming contest that could do much more harm, argues Shannon O'Neil for Bloomberg View. In Mexico.
"Mexico remains one of America's largest trading partners, exchanging nearly $600 billion in goods that support millions of U.S.-based jobs and communities. It is the ancestral home to some 37 million Mexican-Americans and immigrants, and the place of residence for the largest U.S. diaspora. The two nations' energy refineries, pipelines and grids are interwoven, as are their waterways and environments. Each nation increasingly relies on the other to enhance national security and provide basic safety, sharing information and intelligence as they police local streets and go after terrorists and organized crime networks," O'Neil writes.
"In July 2018, Mexico will elect not just a new president but every senator and representative, several governors and numerous local posts — more than 3,000 positions in all. The largest turnover of elected officials in Mexico's modern history, this vote will affect the nation's path for years if not decades to come. It will determine whether Mexico remains pragmatic, open to trade and investment, supportive of regional integration and friendly to the U.S. -- or whether it turns inward…" | | NATO is revamping "a war-fighting structure that atrophied in the peacetime years after the Cold War" as tensions with Russia climb to three-decade highs, Michael Birnbaum reports for the Washington Post.
"Defense ministers [this week] approved plans that would bolster their ability to keep an eye on Russian submarines in the Atlantic Ocean, where crucial undersea communications are at risk of being cut. They committed to establishing a command dedicated to sweeping away barriers preventing their forces from being deployed quickly across Europe in the event of war. And they said that cyberweapons would now have as big a role in NATO planning as guns and tanks," Birnbaum says.
"NATO commanders worry that even though their militaries are significantly stronger than those under the command of the Kremlin, Russia's ability to rush its troops across its own territory give it a formidable practical advantage. U.S. tanks were held up for hours over the summer as they waited for border clearance in Central Europe on the way to a military exercise. In some countries, requests to move troops and equipment need to be submitted up to 30 days in advance."
| | America's Dizzying Diplomatic "Decapitation" | | The head of an organization that represents U.S. diplomats has warned of the "decapitation" of America's diplomatic leadership.
In a letter to members of the American Foreign Service Association, Ambassador Barbara Stephenson writes:
"There is no denying that our leadership ranks are being depleted at a dizzying speed, due in part to the decision to slash promotion numbers by more than half. The Foreign Service officer corps at State has lost 60 percent of its Career Ambassadors since January. Ranks of Career Ministers, our three-star equivalents, are down from 33 to 19. The ranks of our two-star Minister Counselors have fallen from 431 right after Labor Day to 369 today -- and are still falling," Stephenson says.
"These numbers are hard to square with the stated agenda of making State and the Foreign Service stronger. Were the U.S. military to face such a decapitation of its leadership ranks, I would expect a public outcry. Like the military, the Foreign Service recruits officers at entry level and grows them into seasoned leaders over decades. The talent being shown the door now is not only our top talent, but also talent that cannot be replicated overnight. The rapid loss of so many senior officers has a serious, immediate, and tangible effect on the capacity of the United States to shape world events." | | | | | | |
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