| | | | 🚨Republicans have a big retirement problem!🚨 | | In the past 10 days, four House Republicans have announced that they won't be running for re-election next fall, bringing to 25 the total number of GOPers who have or will vacate their districts by the end of 2018.
That's a lot -- especially when compared to the fact that just 10 Democrats are leaving their seats despite being in the minority in the House.
It's also -- as the terrific chart built by CNN's Sam Petulla shows -- ahead of the pace of Republican retirements in recent election cycles. In 2012, for example, just 19 Republicans retired in the whole two-year cycle.
The rapid rate of Republican retirements matters for two reasons:
1) Open seats are, historically speaking, easier to win than ones where an incumbent is running
2) There's lots of reasons to think that Republican retirements are going to keep growing rather than hold where they are.
Let's focus on that second point.
The fact is that the combination of hyper-partisanship in Washington and President Trump's low approval ratings -- mixed with the clean sweep by Democrats in the 2017 elections earlier this week -- make for a very unfriendly environment for on-the-fence incumbents to run in.
"As some of my closest colleagues have also come to realize, those of us who came to Congress to change Washington for the better through good governance are now the outliers," retiring Republican Rep. Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey said in a statement earlier this week announcing his retirement. "In legislating, we previously fought against allowing the perfect to become the enemy of the good. Today, a vocal and obstinate minority within both parties has hijacked good legislation in pursuit of no legislation."
He's not the only one. Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, Dave Reichert of Washington, Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania and Dave Trott of Michigan have also announced they won't run for re-election in 2018. All hail from districts that are either competitive or potentially competitive. Hillary Clinton carried Ros-Lehtinen and Reichert's districts. Trump carried LoBiondo's seat by four points. Same with Trott's district.
That's important. All retirements are not created equal. It's less of a problem for Republicans if a bunch of members who represent districts that Trump won with 70%+ in 2016. But when members in swing districts leave, it's a massive problem.
Every indication is that there will be more retirements -- and more retirements from within the governing wing of the GOP that LoBiondo, Dent and Reichert hail from -- in the coming weeks and months.
That means more territory for Republicans to defend in a national political climate where all indicators suggest the wind will be blowing hard in their collective face.
-- Chris | | UNBELIEVABLE QUOTE OF THE DAY | | "If they believe this man is predatory, they are guilty of allowing him to exist for 40 years. Someone should prosecute and go after them." -Alabama State Rep. Ed Henry to The Cullman Times re: Roy Moore's accusers.
The quote comes after The Washington Post's explosive report -- released Thursday -- based on interviews with more than 30 people who detailed allegations that the Republican Senate candidate from Alabama pursued sexual relationships with several girls when they were between 14 and 18 years old and he was in his 30s. | | | | NEW TAYLOR SWIFT! Her full album is now available on iTunes. If you don't know whether you want to listen to the whole album just yet, ABC teased one of her singles, "New Year's Day." It's a good one. | | Politico's Edward-Isaac Dovere took a new deep dive into Joe Biden's world and talked to a bunch of sources close to the former VP about where his head is at concerning 2020. CNN's Caroline Kenny highlighted some key takeaways from the story: - Biden is trying to keep his upcoming book tour apolitical, but this will be a stamina test to see whether he is up for a 2020 run.
- He has has received at least five requests for endorsements or events each week, sources told POLITICO.
- 12 of 14 candidates Biden endorsed won on Tuesday.
- He hasn't spoken to Obama about 2020.
- His PAC launched in May, but is expected to bring in $500K to $1 million by end of the year.
- He plans to spend most of early 2018 campaigning for old friends in the Senate and helping some House candidates.
- He continues to call out Trump and reaches out to others he sees doing the same.
- Right now, he sees himself as the one who can beat Trump.
For more analysis, check out CNN's Eric Bradner's #2020 Vision memo here. | | BERNIE SANDERS' SOLUTION TO SAVE THE DEMS | | Speaking of #2020 ... Sen. Bernie Sanders published an op-ed in POLITICO on Friday about "How to Fix the Democratic Party." In it, Sanders chastises Democrats for their losses in recent years, and outlined reforms he says will reinvigorate the party, many of them focused on the Democrats' presidential nominating process. CNN's David Wright summed up Sanders' points: - Sanders proposed the elimination of superdelegates -- which was a major point of contention in the 2016 primary. "It is absurd that the Democratic Party now gives over 700 superdelegates -- almost 1/3 the number a presidential candidate needs to win the nomination -- the power to control the nomination process and ignore the will of the voters," he wrote.
- Sanders called for more open primaries, specifically urging the inclusion of independent voters. "Independent voters are critical to general election victories. Locking them out of primaries is a pathway to failure." He also argued that "in states that use caucuses, we must make it easier for working people and students to participate."
- Finally, Sanders also called for greater transparency within the DNC's financial operation, saying that "we must fully appreciate (Donna) Brazile's revelations and understand the need for far more transparency." He called the current system "unacceptable."
| | | CNN's Liz Stark pulled together an end-of-week Russia news recap for The Point. She writes: There were some major updates in the Russia investigations this week. CNN reported that White House senior policy adviser Stephen Miller has been interviewed by special counsel Robert Mueller's team; former national security adviser Michael Flynn is worried about the legal exposure of his son in the Russia probe; and President Donald Trump's longtime confidant Keith Schiller testified that he rejected a Russian offer to send five women to Trump's hotel room during their 2013 trip to Moscow for the Miss Universe pageant. Also, ICYMI: Check out CNN's new Russia investigation tracker, an interactive that tracks all the latest, publicly known developments in the various Russia probes. | | CNN's Laura Jarrett has continued her excellent coverage of Sen. Bob Menendez's corruption trial. Here's her latest:
Packing her bags for the Bahamas, a now-former juror on Sen. Menendez's corruption trial is talking ... a lot.
Former juror #8 said in an interview with me Friday not only does she believe Menendez should be found not guilty on all charges, but she passed a note to the judge before she left court Thursday, laying out her concerns that the jury is deadlocked -- a fact not previously reported during her tell-all to reporters yesterday.
She said the jury is leaning mostly not guilty on the bribery and conspiracy counts, but Menendez's failure to report years' worth of gifts on his Senate financial disclosure forms is causing some flip-flopping in votes, including her own.
But no hard feelings -- she tells me the jurors are all going out to drinks when this thing is finally over. I want to come.
Read more in Laura and CNN's Sarah Jorgensen's full story here. | | | Give yourself a round of applause for making it through the week. Happy Friday! Remember to tell people you like to subscribe to The Point. | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba. | | | Get the Nightcap, a comprehensive summary of the most important political news, delivered to your inbox daily. | | | | | |
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