| | | | How the Saudis Have Miscalculated: The Economist | | Mystery still surrounds the circumstances of the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri as he appears set to travel from Saudi Arabia to Paris, The Economist writes. But one thing is already clear: The Saudis have miscalculated.
"When an Iranian official boasted of his country's influence in Lebanon after meeting Mr Hariri in Beirut, the Saudis finally snapped, calling the prime minister to Riyadh," The Economist says.
"Without the figleaf of Mr Hariri as prime minister, Hizbullah's influence on Lebanon would be exposed -- or so hoped the Saudis as they beat the drums of war. Its officials blamed Iran and Hizbullah for a missile fired at Riyadh from Yemen on November 4th. It was intercepted, but the Saudi government nevertheless called it an 'act of war'. On November 9th it told Saudis to leave Lebanon at once, raising concerns of an imminent descent into chaos, or even an attack. The Lebanese held their breath.
"But if Saudi Arabia's plan was to lure Israel and America, which lists Hizbullah as a terrorist group, into a war in Lebanon, it miscalculated. Israel, though deeply concerned about Hizbullah's growing armoury, appeared wary of being sucked into another conflict in Lebanon. American and European officials publicly urged Mr Hariri to return to Beirut for the sake of Lebanon's stability. In private, they pressed Saudi Arabia to back down.
"The advice was heeded, to the relief of many Lebanese."
| | The Key to Robert Mugabe's Fall? His Wife | | The straw that finally broke the back of Robert Mugabe's 37-year presidency may have been his wife, suggest David Pilling and Joseph Cotterill for the Financial Times, a day after Zimbabwe's army placed the president under house arrest.
"Grace Mugabe, who rose from secretary to President Robert Mugabe to Machiavellian aspirant to succeed him as leader of the country, cannot be blamed for all Zanu-PF's problems. Years of poor policies, brutality and economic chaos have sapped the liberation party of much of its support. In 2008 elections, without the violent state apparatus behind it, Mr Mugabe's party may well have been pushed from power.
"Yet, Zanu-PF insiders accuse Mrs Mugabe, 52, the president's second wife, of deepening the rot. Her open pursuit of wealth and her penchant for extravagance symbolized the corruption that has eaten away at the party's credibility, they say.
"Above all, her ambitions were seen as a threat by the party's old guard, the veterans of the liberation struggle who dominate the security forces that have provided the linchpin of Mr Mugabe's rule."
| | Russia in 2018: It's Not All About Putin | | Vladimir Putin is almost certain to run – and be reelected – in next year's Russian presidential election. That could also mean a new prime minister is appointed, writes Mark Galeotti for the Moscow Times. And that's more important than you might think.
"It is tempting to see this as of little real significance, like a choice of head butler to administer the president's affairs. However, while the role is essentially to be presidential henchman and scapegoat, it is a role with meaning, and Vladimir Putin's choice will be both consequential and also a potential indicator of the direction he plans to take in his fourth presidential term," Galeotti writes.
"Although no one seriously doubts that he will be standing in 2018 (expect an announcement during or around his regular marathon press conference on 14 December) and – spoiler alert – that he will win, people are already looking to life after Putin.
"For a leader whose legitimacy in part rests on the myth that he is the 'indispensable man,' this is inevitably problematic. Anyone elevated to the premiership will inevitably become the focus of speculation about their presidential ambitions and prospects."
| | Is the Terror Threat Growing, or Shrinking? Both | | The number of deaths from terrorism fell for a second consecutive year in 2016, although the total number of countries experiencing deaths from terrorism continues to grow, according to a new report from the Institute for Economics and Peace.
"Since 2014 there has been a 22% reduction in deaths from terrorism compared to the peak of terror activity in 2014, with 6,827 fewer people killed. Terrorism has fallen significantly in Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria. Nigeria recorded the biggest decrease in terrorism, with 3,100 fewer people killed compared to the previous year," the Institute's Global Terrorism Index notes.
Still, the number of countries that experienced deaths from terrorism climbed to 77 from 65 the year before, while 2016 was also the deadliest year since the September 11 attacks for richer countries, thanks largely to three attacks that "accounted for 44% of all deaths from terrorism in [Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development]countries between 2014 and June 2017."
| | 1-in-4 People Have Done This… | | Almost a quarter of people around the world say they have paid a bribe to access public services in the previous 12 months, according to a new report from Transparency International.
The Global Corruption Barometer report, based on a series of interviews across 119 countries, territories and regions, found that "on average the bribery rate in the European Union was lowest (9 percent), while the Commonwealth of Independent States in Eurasia, and the Middle East and North Africa region had an average bribery rate of 30 percent, which was the highest of all the regions surveyed. The Latin America and Caribbean region and Asia Pacific region followed closely with an average bribery rate of 29 and 28 percent respectively." | | | | | | |
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