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Friday, September 21, 2018

The Point: The week Brett Kavanaugh went from sure thing to not

September 21, 2018  by Chris Cillizza and Veronica Stracqualursi

The week Brett Kavanaugh went from sure thing to not

A lot can change in a week in Washington.

Seven days ago, Judge Brett Kavanaugh seemed certain to be the next Supreme Court justice. A vote had been set in the Senate Judiciary Committee for this Thursday and the expectation was that all 11 Republicans would vote for him, ensuring that he would get a full floor vote. Where, in the very near future, the Republican majority would confirm him for the seat being vacated by retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy.

Then came the news Sunday that a woman named Christine Blasey Ford, a professor in California, had spoken to The Washington Post -- putting a name and a face to the previously anonymous allegations that Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted a woman when they were both teenagers in the early 1980s.

Suddenly, everything was up in the air.

The past five days have been dominated by Senate Republicans and the White House trying to wrap their arms around just how big a problem all of this is for Kavanaugh's confirmation. And each time they seemed to have a handle on it, the story started in another direction.

Here's where we've landed (I think) at the end of this week: There is a very high likelihood that Ford and Kavanaugh will testify -- separately -- next week. The exact day remains up in the air as does whether the senators who sit on the committee will be the only people allowed to ask questions of the two witnesses. But Ford's attorneys and the Judiciary Committee are now talking -- and at this point it's hard to see how they don't find a way to get to an agreement, particularly given the stakes.

As I've written, a hearing featuring Ford telling her story lessens the chances of Kavanaugh getting confirmed if for no other reason than it adds an element of uncertainty and drama into a proceeding that seemed drama-free at this time last week. 

The Point, part 1: It remains true that Republicans have a one-seat edge on the Judiciary Committee, meaning that if they all support the President's nominee -- regardless of what Ford says -- Kavanaugh will make it out of committee and will likely be confirmed.

The Point, part 2: It is also true, however, that Ford's testimony -- and what Kavanaugh says in response -- could change things, perhaps profoundly. When the eyes of the country are on the two of them -- and the 21 senators on the Judiciary Committee -- it's impossible to predict the final outcome.

Below, the week that was in Kavanaugh (and other) news in 27 headlines.

-- Chris

Monday:  Tuesday: Wednesday: Thursday: Friday:

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"President Trump has nominated a stunningly successful individual. You watch the fight, you watch the tactics, but here's what I want to tell you: In the very near future, Judge Kavanaugh will be on the United States Supreme Court."

-- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell at the 2018 Values Voters Summit

IN OTHER NEWS

Whoa. The New York Times is out with an explosive report that Attorney General Rod Rosenstein discussed wearing a "wire" to record conversations with President Donald Trump and recruiting Cabinet members to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office.

From CNN's Laura Jarrett and Jeremy Herb's story: "The extraordinary allegations, depicting a panic-stricken No. 2 official at the Justice Department who has been a target of the President in the past, are outlined in memos authored by former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, according to the Times. 

"CNN has not reviewed the memos, but they have been turned over to special counsel Robert Mueller, according to sources familiar with the matter."

Rosenstein's response: "The New York Times's story is inaccurate and factually incorrect. I will not further comment on a story based on anonymous sources who are obviously biased against the Department and are advancing their own personal agenda. But let me be clear about this: based on my personal dealings with the President, there is no basis to invoke the 25th Amendment."

President Trump did not mention the Rosenstein story during his remarks in Las Vegas this afternoon. (h/t CNN's Kevin Liptak)

Chris also highlights the five big questions the Times report and Rosenstein's response raise.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

A must-read on this bellwether district in Colorado that could determine who controls the House, from CNN's Dana Bash & Bridget Nolan

John Dowd did a bad, bad thing, according to WSJ's Rebecca Ballhaus

Axios' Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei on the Republican identity crisis

This devastating WaPo piece on what happened to a teenager who reported her rape

About that Google doodle giving us all the feels

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

The only song appropriate for the 21st night of September is this classic from Earth, Wind & Fire

INSTA POINT

Today's topic: The Senate race in Texas is looking more and more competitive. 

💰 MONEY WATCH ðŸ’°

The August FEC reports are in and the Republican National Committee is the biggest fundraiser of the month so far, followed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

From CNN's David Wright, who crunched the numbers:

The DCCC continued its record-breaking fundraising pace, bringing in about $15.4 million, compared to just $5.88 million raised by the National Republican Congressional Committee over the same period. The DCCC now has just over $5 million more in cash on hand than the NRCC -- $69.7 million to $64.5 million.

On the other hand, the RNC continued to dominate the Democratic National Committee in fundraising. The RNC brought in about $16.4 million in August, while the DNC raked in $9.2 million. The DNC also still has just over $7 million in debts. The RNC has about $41.7 million in cash on hand.

The third-largest fundraiser of the month is With Honor, a nonpartisan super PAC that promotes veteran candidates, thanks to the $10 million contribution it received from Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos.

THE BIG TEXAS BRAWL

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is currently in the midst of his first debate against Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke at SMU. The hour-long debate between the two on domestic policy kicked off at 6 p.m. CT. 

"This is a big chance for O'Rourke to show himself off and be charismatic on camera, but he shouldn't underestimate Cruz by any stretch," SMU Professor Stephanie Martin said in an SMU commentary previewing the debate. "It's still Cruz's race to lose and Cruz is unlikely to do anything in the debate that's a serious blunder."

O'Rourke's social media fame, national attention and fundraising prowess has made Republicans nervous and caused them to question Cruz's reelection chances. And on Friday, the Cook Political Report moved the Texas Senate race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss Up."

But things could be looking up for Cruz after a Quinnipiac University poll on Tuesday showed him leading O'Rourke by a 9-point margin among likely voters. CNN's Harry Enten had noted that Texas Democrats need a big turnout in Texas to win. 

Don't miss CNN's Betsy Klein's story on how President Trump and Cruz have buried the hatchet and are now trying to help save one another.

BIDEN STILL ANSWERING ANITA HILL QUESTIONS

In a sit-down with NBC, former Vice President Joe Biden was asked about Anita Hill's 1991 hearing and how the Senate Judiciary Committee should handle the allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

From CNN's Arlette Saenz's story: "'The woman should be given the benefit of the doubt and not be abused again by the system,' Biden said in an interview with NBC on Friday. 'My biggest regret was, I didn't know how I could shut you off because you were a senator and you were attacking Anita Hill's character. ... She got victimized during the process.'

"'It seems like you get it now, versus back in '91,' NBC's Craig Melvin later said.

"'Well, I think I got it in '91,' Biden replied. 'People have their own opinion.'"

Biden has faced criticism for years over his handling of Anita Hill's 1991 hearing as Senate Judiciary Committee chairman and now it looms large as he mulls a presidential run in 2020.

YOUR DAILY GIF

H/T Brenna
From Brenna: "Sen. Tim Kaine pulled a reverse Horatio Caine and took his glasses off while making a point earlier this week. If you like GIFs and want to catch up on some of this week's news, look no further.
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