| | | | What Kavanaugh means for the midterms | | | The chaos throughout Washington seeped into the campaign space this week -- which means that even on the trail, things are not going according to plan. The scheduled debate between Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke -- set to take place this weekend at the University of Houston -- has been postponed, with the Cruz camp citing Senate plans to remain in session for the Kavanaugh vote (which has now ALSO been postponed). This would have been the second of three scheduled debates. Cruz and O'Rourke are locked in what increasingly looks like a close race, with the firepower of out-of-town surrogates and cash fueling interest in what could be ground zero of a Democratic coup come November. Celebrity lawyer and 2020 hopeful Michael Avenatti, who had a big week defending a third accuser against Kavanaugh and sparring with President Donald Trump on Twitter -- and even offering to debate the President (I thought the debates were still years away!) -- is in New Hampshire for a jam-packed weekend of events. He's stumping for local Democrats around the Granite State. Avenatti is certainly not shying away from campaign trail's siren song in spite of all of the chaos in Washington. And Guy Cecil, the head of Priorities USA, stated "I will never personally or professionally support any Democrat who votes to confirm Kavanaugh," in a tweet on Thursday. It's not clear if Cecil's swearing-off will also apply to the Democratic super PAC, which is poised to spend a total of $21 million on digital ads alongside the Senate Majority PAC in support of Democrats in North Dakota (home to Sen. Heidi Heitkamp) and West Virginia (home to Sen. Joe Manchin) -- both crucial Kavanaugh swing votes -- along with Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and Tennessee. The Point: The Kavanaugh confirmation is taking up all of the political oxygen, and not just in Washington.
– Lauren | | Greetings! Lauren Dezenski here -- I'm the new co-author of The Point newsletter, alongside Chris Cillizza. In addition to working on The Point, I'm also taking the lead on this new newsletter, dedicated to campaigns across the country gearing up for the midterms.
I caught up with Chris to get his latest thoughts on Kavanaugh, the midterms, and more. Enjoy:
Lauren Dezenski: In what way will the chaos around Kavanaugh bleed into the midterms -- if at all? Chris Cillizza: I think that what was already a charged-up Democratic base will be supercharged by how Thursday's hearing played out. And I think Republicans are likely to see some jump in their base's engagement too. The conservative base cares deeply about judges -- and Kavanaugh's performance on Thursday likely fired them up.
The question for Republicans is if their base's enthusiasm continues through the election, particularly if Kavanaugh is ultimately confirmed.
LD: We've often seen these Hill hearings as key breakout moments for upwardly mobile pols. Did you see any such moment this week during the Kavanaugh proceedings?
CC: Well, I think a lot of politicians get on the Judiciary Committee for moments just like this. I think it's obvious that Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris were doing everything they could to make clear that they opposed Kavanaugh with every fiber of their being. That is about the beliefs, yes, but also about their 2020 prospects.
The person I was most impressed with this week was Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. She's less well-known than Harris or Booker to Democrats nationally but she is someone looking at running for president too. I thought she was pointed with Kavanaugh. But in an effective way. And she played a role in the eventual deal that Jeff Flake struck.
LD: What's one thing that surprised you this week?
CC: How nasty the senators were to one another. I know people think that partisanship is worse than ever. And it is generally. But the Senate is one of the most clubby pieces I have ever seen. (It's what makes a lot of partisans hate it.) To see senators yelling at each other in often personal terms -- Lindsey Graham, I am looking at you -- was remarkable.
It speaks to how poisoned the well is -- at least on judges. Maybe the deal they cut for a one-week investigation will change things. But I doubt it. | | 📈 POLLERCOASTER: FLORIDA SENATE EDITION 📉 | | Among likely voters in Florida: - Bill Nelson: 53%
- Rick Scott: 46%
A new poll out this week from Quinnipiac University shows incumbent Democratic senator in the Sunshine State Bill Nelson could manage to hold onto his seat despite a formidable and well-funded challenge from Republican Gov. Rick Scott.
Nelson, a three-term incumbent, appears to have recaptured the lead in the race. A poll on September 5 showed the two in a dead heat at 49% among likely voters, while a February poll showed Nelson at 46% among Florida voters to Scott's 42%. Florida has proven to be a crucial state in the overall roadmap to Democrats' success in the Senate, and Nelson holding onto his seat would be a critical component to build a majority come November.
The Forecast: CNN's Harry Enten digs into the #polloftheweek. | | CAMPAIGN VIDEO OF THE WEEK | |  | Need - Julie Oliver for Congress | | | Don't miss the newly released spot from Democratic congressional candidate Julie Oliver, who is running against Rep. Roger Williams in Texas' 25th district which includes Austin, and a swath north and west of the capital city. Titled "Need," it pitches Oliver's past: "Homeless, pregnant, and alone, I had to steal to eat. Mine is a tough story to tell, but it's not mine alone," the bio reads. "I have encountered so many people who are just like me. We all struggle, we all face challenges, and we all need each other." | | In the digital firepower arena, CNN's David Wright and Aaron Kessler report there is a new wave of attack ads showing Democrats on offense and Republicans on defense.
Meanwhile, the upwardly mobile Democratic mayor of Los Angeles Eric Garcetti this week raised $1.5 million in a star-studded event in Los Angeles for Democrats around the country. The goal: bring in at least $1 million -- a sum of $100,000 for the state Democratic parties in key states of California, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin via the Democratic Midterm Victory Fund. Garcetti had the help of Hollywood luminaries like Jimmy Kimmel and DJ Khaled -- Khaled even pumped up the crowd by telling attendees, "Democrats, we are the best party. But we gotta win more." Garcetti has stoked speculation around a possible 2020 presidential run in his outreach and support to state Democratic parties during the midterms. Earlier this year, the mayor of Los Angeles held a fundraiser that raised $100,000 for the South Carolina Democratic Party, which also inspired this week's amped-up fundraiser. | | Michelle Obama in Florida! She's not stumping for any candidate -- or any party -- she's just simply working to register young people to vote.
The former FLOTUS made for quite the addition to the GOTV lineup in Miami on Friday. She joined Destiny's Child's Kelly Rowland, Key and Peele's Keegan Michael-Key and singer Faith Hill to headline a voter registration event at the University of Miami. | | President Donald Trump heads to West Virginia this weekend to campaign for Republican Senate candidate Patrick Morrisey, who is challenging Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin -- considered a swing vote in the nomination for Supreme Court pick Brett Kavanaugh. Trump is increasingly familiar with the country roads of West Virginia -- he's visited multiple times after nearly 68% of the state voted for him in 2016.
Trump is on a full campaign swing this week. On Monday he'll hold a rally in Johnson City, Tennessee; Tuesday in Southaven, Mississippi; Thursday in Rochester, Minnesota; and next Saturday in Topeka, Kansas.
Celebrity lawyer Michael Avenatti returns to New Hampshire this weekend for a handful of events with local Democrats. Meanwhile, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is increasing his travel schedule throughout the midterms to stump for Democrats around the country. Last week, he visited Mississippi to campaign for Democratic Senate candidate Mike Espy – whom Patrick called a "great listener." Sen. Cory Booker heads to Iowa next weekend (more on that below). | | Sen. Cory Booker headlines the Iowa Dems' fall gala, happening a week from today. The Iowa Democratic Party's fall gala is the state party's largest event, this year happening at the Iowa Events Center and with admission costing as much as $10,000.
The New Jersey senator previously made a splash in Des Moines while on the stump for Hillary Clinton in 2016. | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Lauren. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Lauren. | | | | | | |
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