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Tuesday, September 25, 2018

The Point: Why Donald Trump might NOT fire Rod Rosenstein

September 25, 2018  by Chris Cillizza and Caroline Kenny

Why Donald Trump might NOT fire Rod Rosenstein

We're now a little more than 36 hours from the face-to-face meeting between President Donald Trump and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. Since Monday morning -- when rumors spread like wildfire that Rosenstein was on his way to resign to chief of staff John Kelly -- the expectation has been that Trump will can Rosenstein on Thursday.

Not so fast. 

This, from CNN's Jeff Zeleny, is instructive about how dangerous it is to make predictions about what Trump will do about, well, anything:

"Rosenstein could find himself in a similar position (to Attorney General Jeff Sessions), two officials suggested: one of obvious enmity with the President, but without being fired. Like Sessions, it's almost certainly not a question of whether he gets replaced, but when. But that timing could come well after the midterm elections, the officials say."

There are two reasons -- one practical, one psychological -- that suggest that Rosenstein could be spared on Thursday.

First, the practical. Virtually every Republican in elected office has urged Trump to keep Rosenstein on the job -- for now. The concern among that group is that the Senate is already embroiled in a confirmation fight over the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. And, with the 2018 midterms set for six weeks from today, the last thing they need is to face down a series of questions about whether the President is purposely meddling in the special counsel investigation by Robert Mueller that Rosenstein currently oversees.

"If he were to fire him or forced to resign, that would be a very significant issue because he's the person in charge of the Mueller investigation," Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, told CNN's Manu Raju on Tuesday afternoon. "If there's any attempt to fire or force out Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein, that would be a huge red line and very problematic."

Republicans' nerves are already frazzled by the increasingly dire predictions of their House majority's future and mounting worries about whether the seemingly impregnable Senate majority could be in jeopardy as well. "Please no more!," Republicans will tell Trump if he happens to ask.

Second, the psychological. Trump LOVES turning expectations about him -- and what he will do -- on his head. The boardroom scenes in "The Apprentice" and "The Celebrity Apprentice" were chock full of just these sorts of expectation reversals. You would be led to believe -- thanks to editing and Trump's own rhetoric -- that he was going to fire, say, Dennis Rodman. But then he fires Andrew Dice Clay. (Ohhhhh!

Also, never forget how Trump built up the suspense on whether he would strip Miss California -- Carrie Prejean -- of her crown after she expressed her personal opposition to same-sex marriage and some nearly-nude pictures of her were posted online. He built the event up -- and up -- before sparing Prejean, playing the role of magnanimous magnate to a massive press corps assembled for the "event."

The Point: This showdown sitdown with Rosenstein on Thursday is the stuff that Trump has always loved. All eyes on him, wondering if he will swing the executioner's ax or show mercy. And no one -- maybe not even him -- knowing what he will do until he does it. 

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Well, it's extremely awkward to be talking about such private matters on TV." 

-- GOP Sen. John Cornyn on the interview Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh gave Monday evening on Fox News as accusations of inappropriate sexual behavior from high school and college continue to threaten his nomination.

TRUMP UNEXPECTEDLY GETS SOME LAUGHS

President Donald Trump kicked off his speech at the United Nations General Assembly today expecting to promote a message of power and sovereignty. What he didn't expect were the laughs that followed one of his first lines.

Trump began his speech in a similar fashion to how he starts a campaign rally: by boasting that his administration "has accomplished more than almost any administration in the history of our country."

Many of the assembled world leaders and foreign dignitaries responded with laughter.

"I didn't expect that reaction, but that's OK," he said, riffing and going off script while laughing off the chuckles that rippled through the hall.

The President then continued and launched into his "America First"-centered speech, saying the world will be at its best if all nations focus on themselves and steer clear of global power.

"We will never surrender America's sovereignty to an unelected, unaccountable global bureaucracy. America is governed by Americans. We reject the ideology of globalism and we embrace the doctrine of patriotism," Trump said during his remarks.

The laughter and lack of applause interruptions throughout his nearly hour-long speech made it clear: Trump's message is still not widely embraced by other countries.

Read Chris' take on how it all went down here.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

Is Lisa Murkowski starting to have doubts about Brett Kavanaugh?

This, on Kavanaugh's high school yearbook, is brutal

The latest CNN House rankings show the playing field continuing to tilt toward Democrats

The Minneapolis Star Tribune is joining a legal effort to unseal Democratic Rep. Keith Ellison's 2012 divorce records

As Nausicaa Renner writes, the news these days is often shocking. So what do we do about it?

The Ringer's Justin Charity on the final episodes of "Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown"

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Phosphorescent -- aka Matthew Houck -- is amazing. His newest tune, with the GREAT title of "New Birth in New England," is just so damn catchy. And, while we're on Phosphorescent, make sure to check out his "Tiny Desk" concert.

INSTA POINT

Today's topic: Donald Trump bragged about himself to the United Nations. The UN laughed.

🚨 KEY RACE ALERT 🚨

Minnesota is really living up to its nickname of the North Star State this election cycle. It's home in 2018 to an open gubernatorial contest, two US Senate races and four highly competitive House matchups, making the North Star State the center of the midterm universe.

CNN's Deputy Political Director Terence Burlij breaks down why Minnesota is a state to keep an eye on over the next few weeks leading up to November 6 as Democrats look to take back the House:
  • Republicans are playing defense in two suburban/exurban Twin Cities House districts -- one where Trump barely won in 2016 and another where he lost to Hillary Clinton by 9 points
  • Democrats have a prospective path to the House majority in large part through more affluent, educated areas, including Minnesota's 2nd and 3rd Districts, where Republican Reps. Jason Lewis and Erik Paulsen face tough re-election bids from well-financed challengers
  • Democrats need to hold onto two open seats in rural parts of the state that Trump carried by 15 and 16 points respectively
NRCC Chairman Rep. Steve Stivers has referred to the House races in Minnesota as his bellwether contests this cycle. 

"If we win both of our incumbent races and either of the challenger races, we will be in the majority," Stivers recently told reporters. "If we win one of the incumbent races and one of the challenger races, we're probably in the majority. If we lose both the incumbent races and win none of the challenger races, we are probably in the minority."

Read more from Terence's story here.

KAVANAUGH'S UNPRECEDENTED MOVE

Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh made an unprecedented move and sat down for a TV interview with Fox News' Martha MacCallum on Monday night, alongside his wife Ashley, as accusations of inappropriate sexual behavior from high school and college continue to threaten his nomination to the court.

The White House touted their nominee's performance during the interview, which happened roughly 24 hours after a second woman accused Kavanuagh of inappropriate sexual behavior during his high school and college days.

Now, Trump is on the attack. He made what may be his most aggressive stand in defense of Kavanaugh to date on Tuesday, when he cast doubt on the recollections of both the women accusing Kavanaugh and slammed Democrats for playing what he described as a "con game."

"He has the chance to be one of the greatest justices ever in the United States Supreme Court," Trump said in New York after speaking at the UN General Assembly. "What a shame."

During the interview, Kavanaugh revealed something that is likely to be brought up during his questioning by the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday: unequivocal denials of the sexual misconduct allegations based, in part, on his claim that he remained a virgin throughout the time women have said he sexually harassed or assaulted them.

"I did not have sexual intercourse or anything close to sexual intercourse in high school or for many years thereafter," Kavanaugh told Fox News.

Read Chris' piece on the 22 most important moments from Kavanaugh's interview.

HAPPY NATIONAL VOTER REGISTRATION DAY

It's September 25 and you know what that means ... it's National Voter Registration Day! 

The midterm elections on November 6 are just 42 days away, and as CNN's Hunter Schwarz points out, there's a whole lot of people trying to get young people to turn out to vote this cycle.  

From his story: "In 2018, Beyoncé fans can register to vote at the On The Run II Tour, high schoolers can register from their classrooms and shoppers can register at a participating Levi Strauss location."

A lot of voter registration efforts are targeting young people this year, including Twitter's #BeAVoter campaign, which includes a special emoji and prompts on users' timelines encouraging users to register, and MTV's "+1thevote," which launched at the Video Music Awards and encourages people to bring their plus one to vote with them.

Read more in Hunter's story here.

YOUR DAILY GIF

H/T Brenna
From Brenna: "Justin Trudeau's handshake is so gentle and Canadian. If I didn't know he was the Prime Minister of Canada, I would definitely guess he was. Introduce your friends to The Point."
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