| | | | Is Trump Still In Control? | | Critics of Donald Trump might applaud apparent efforts by senior officials to work around the President to try to "contain him." But doing so is setting a dangerous precedent, argues David Frum in The Atlantic.
"To what extent does the president remain in the military chain of command? It seems incredible that the military would outright defy a presidential order," Frum writes. "But not hearing it? Not understanding it? Not acting on it promptly? Holding back information that might provoke an unwanted presidential reaction?"
"Thank you and congratulations to those officials struggling to protect American security, the Western alliance, and world peace against Donald Trump. But the constitutional order is becoming the casualty of these struggles. The Constitution provides a way to remedy an unfit presidency: the removal process under the 25th amendment. Regencies and palace coups are not constitutional. I dare say many readers would prefer a Mattis presidency to a Trump presidency. But to stealthily endow Secretary Mattis with the powers of the presidency as a work-around of Trump's abuse of them? That's a crisis, too, and one sinister for the future. What if Trump is succeeded by a Bernie Sanders-type whom the military and intelligence agencies distrust as much as they distrust Trump: Will they continue the habits they acquired in the Trump years?"
| | Putin's Strength Is His Big Weakness | | Vladimir Putin's failure to crack down on violent attacks by Russian Orthodox extremists over a supposedly blasphemous movie underscores the extent to which Russia's president relies on a nationalist ideology, writes Alexander Baunov in Foreign Affairs. And that may prove to be one of his biggest weaknesses.
"In recent years, Putin has been happy to inculcate a conservative, nationalist ideology in Russia, which much of the Russian Orthodox Church has supported. And he has encouraged protesters, worshippers, and ordinary Russians to propagate this creed to demonstrate that this is a grassroots movement, not something imposed from the top down by the Kremlin," Baunov writes.
"By doing so, however, Putin has undermined his own authority. In threatening the makers of an innocuous movie with violence and intimidating members of Russia's cultural elite, the conservative nationalist movement has demonstrated its ugly side, and Putin seems unable to stop it. Doing so would enrage the so-called patriotic part of the political establishment he has emboldened over the last few years."
| | Team Trump Immigration Plan Shoots America in Foot: WSJ | | | The White House's newly outlined immigration priorities, including cutting legal immigration in half, appear completely detached from the needs of the U.S. economy, the Wall Street Journal editorializes.
"The real labor problem is a shortage, as the jobless rate has hit 4.2% nationwide. America's tight visa caps are sending high-tech jobs to Canada and agricultural production to Mexico," the paper says.
"These problems would be exacerbated by the White House demand that Congress restrict 'low-skilled immigration' and establish a putative merit-based immigration system with too few visas or green cards. Politicians would arbitrarily assign points to foreign applicants based on metrics like pay and education. Farm and construction workers need not apply. 'Chained' immigration for extended family members of U.S. citizens and green card holders would also be abolished, thus encouraging more illegal entries." | | China's "Deadbeat" Name and Shame Plan | | Thinking about confiding to a friend that you're having trouble paying back a loan? Under new Chinese government proposals reported by the South China Morning Post you won't need to – because they could already know all about it.
"Those who fail to repay a bank loan will be blacklisted, and they will have their name, ID number, photograph, home address and the amount they owe published or announced through various channels – including in newspapers, online, on radio and television, and on screens in buses and public lifts," He Huifeng writes, citing China's official Xinhua News Agency.
"Local governments have been told to set up name-and-shame databases – which will be searchable by anyone – by the end of the year, the report said."
"The move is part of broader efforts to boost 'trustworthiness' in Chinese society. The public shaming channels would serve as an 'important tool in punishing those regarded as untrustworthy,' according to Xinhua."
| | Why Kim Has a Cyber Advantage Over America | | The U.S.-North Korea standoff over Pyongyang's nuclear program inevitably grabs the headlines. But there's another cold war playing out between the two in cyber space, writes Andy Greenberg in Wired. And that battlefield could favor Kim Jong Un's regime.
"[T]he vast majority of North Korea's overall infrastructure still remains disconnected, vastly reducing any footholds for hackers -- and making the prospect of compromising its locked-down and air-gapped nuclear weapons systems all the more daunting," Greenberg writes.
"American cyber operations against North Korea break down into two parts: Those designed to hamper North Korea's own offensive hacking and intelligence capabilities, and those designed to disrupt physical infrastructure like its missile program, says Atlantic Council fellow Jason Healey. The U.S. can manage the first type well enough, albeit with mostly limited, temporary consequences. But the latter…can be exceedingly tough against an adversary as disconnected as the Kim regime."
| | Can Europe Save the Iran Deal? | | President Trump may be poised to decertify Iran's compliance over the nuclear deal later this week. But that doesn't mean the agreement is dead – Europe might still save the day, suggests David Patrikarakos for Politico EU.
"What Trump seems to fail to understand is that the deal doesn't just involve the U.S. and Tehran, but 'the P5+1' -- the five Security Council powers and Germany. And -- aside from a faction of hard-liners in Iran -- none of the other signatories agree with the U.S. President," Patrikarakos argues.
"[T]he agreement is that rarest of things: a concrete result of European unity. And so it's only natural that the EU wishes to keep it in place.
"Europe is also united in its belief that Iran's moderates are the best hope -- though the term is always relative -- for the country's future, as well as for stability in the Middle East."
| | U.S.-Turkey Relationship: Broken Beyond Repair? | | Diverging security interests have pushed U.S.-Turkey ties into a "cycle of mutual resentment," writes Philip Gordon in the Financial Times. Indeed, the truth is that "the relationship is probably beyond repair."
"The U.S. is determined to prevent Iran from filling the vacuum created when ISIS forces are driven from eastern Syria. Washington is almost certain to continue to back [the] Kurds, potentially provoking a violent Turkish response. Turkey's vocal support for Islamist groups such as Hamas, Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and Libyan militias, its burgeoning military relationship with Qatar, and its recent decision to rebuff NATO and purchase Russian air-defense systems -- a move itself designed to signal its displeasure with the U.S. -- will only exacerbate these divisions," Gordon writes.
"Americans have understandably wanted to ignore these realities for some time, given Turkey's geopolitical importance. But it is now past time that they start to see and treat Turkey for what it is -- a Middle Eastern country with its own values and priorities -- and not as the like-minded, close and reliable ally they may wish it would be. That means continuing to co-operate where possible, but having no illusions, and standing up firmly when differences appear, such as when Mr Erdogan starts taking U.S. citizens hostage." | | | | | | |
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