| | | | What Merkel Can Do to Get Trump's Attention | | | German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet with President Trump on Friday with her moniker of "leader of the free world" much diminished. But she can still get the attention of Trump – and his investment in the transatlantic alliance, writes Jacob Schrot for the Atlantic Council. The trick is to make clear what's in it for his America First agenda.
"To underline for him that the security dimension of the transatlantic partnership is reciprocally beneficial, Merkel should turn the table and publicly declare that the long-range missile threat originating from North Korea is a concern and danger to the transatlantic alliance's collective defense," Schrot writes. "North Korea's military capabilities pose a threat to the US homeland, and European leaders should push to declare this a topic for discussion at the NATO summit in Brussels in July."
Meanwhile, the "looming trilateral trade war between Europe, North America, and China is of special concern to the heavily export-driven German economy. To exit the vicious circle of retaliatory tariffs Germany should lobby the European Union to join the United States in its criticism of China's unfair trade practices, especially when it comes to the violation of intellectual property rights and technology theft." | | What Does Kim Want? It's Simple | | The best way of understanding Kim Jong Un's intentions as he prepares to meet Friday with South Korean President Moon Jae-in is to keep it simple, The Economist suggests. Kim wants a long life, and that's why he's unlikely to give up his nukes.
"Mr Kim enjoys a cushy life, living in palaces and having a whole nation goose-stepping at his command. But he cannot sleep easy. If he were ever to lose power, he would doubtless meet the same fate as Moammar Gadhafi. He will do anything to avoid that. Both his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, and his father acquired senior posts when they were young, and both died of natural causes," The Economist says.
Kim's nuclear capability "is the crux of his domestic propaganda, and the army's prestige rests on it. Since he probably fears his own generals more than America's, there is reason to doubt that Mr. Kim would ever trade his nukes away. Yet sanctions are starting to bite. Mr. Kim seems to intend to switch emphasis, from acquiring nuclear arms to developing the economy. For that he needs the summits, and to keep Mr. Moon, Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi dancing."
| | | South Korean President Moon Jae-in must stay focused on the "real goal" – namely denuclearization – when he meets with Kim on Friday, Bloomberg editorializes. That means avoiding the temptation of a quick deal – and helping President Trump avoid it, too.
"The Pyongyang regime seems to envision eliminating not just its own nuclear stockpile but also the nuclear umbrella the US currently extends to its South Korean ally. Until then, it expects to keep its arsenal and be treated as a nuclear power. That's unacceptable, and Moon shouldn't paper over the ambiguity," Bloomberg argues.
"Trump's recent statements have raised fears that, no less than Moon, he may also be too eager to strike a deal. Moon could usefully guard against that. For instance, rather than accepting the temporary freeze on nuclear and missile testing that Kim has already announced, Moon could push for an immediate hard cap on the North's arsenal — limiting the number of warheads and missiles, banning further enrichment, and setting out early dates for cuts to the existing stockpile. That would make it harder for Trump to settle for anything less." | | Friday's Other Big Asia Meeting… | | The world's eyes will largely be on the historic meeting between the North and South Korean leaders when they meet Friday. But another meeting is taking place the same day between the leaders of two Asian neighbors whose relationship could have an even bigger impact on the world, suggest Kerry Brown and Marya Shakil for Chatham House.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi "may operate in very different contexts, one in charge of the world's largest Communist Party–controlled state, the other running the world's largest democracy. But both can be called nationalists whose primary appeal to their people is their commitment to making their country modern and powerful," they write.
"If Xi's government fails to deliver on its objectives, a backlash isn't out of the question; Chinese history down to modern times has been full of such turbulent events. If that were to happen, then India, despite its current challenges, would be waiting on the sidelines to pick up the regional baton."
"This will be one of the great competitive relationships of the coming decades. Its unfolding will be worked out in the local politics of each of these great nations, and will depend on whether, in the end, democracy or one-party uniformity emerges as the best way to sustain prosperity and stability."
| | Pompeo's Big Foreign Policy Challenges Aren't All Overseas | | Mike Pompeo was confirmed as Secretary of State on Thursday, and quickly sworn in. He faces not only a burgeoning in-tray of urgent issues – North Korea, Russia and the Iran deal – but the challenge of navigating some potentially tense relationships with his foreign policy and national security colleagues, Gardiner Harris and Thomas Kaplan write in The New York Times.
"At the White House, John R. Bolton, the administration's third national security adviser in a little over a year, is presiding over another purge of top assistants. Mr. Pompeo must forge a working relationship with Mr. Bolton as he creates alliances with the White House chief of staff, John F. Kelly, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, and the president's son-in-law and top adviser Jared Kushner," they write.
"Mr. Pompeo's early military career — he attended West Point and became a tank commander before leaving for Harvard Law School — could endear him to Mr. Kelly and Mr. Mattis, both former four-star generals.
"But handling Mr. Kushner will be a delicate matter. Mr. Kushner's diplomatic portfolio includes forging a Middle East peace deal and safeguarding the relationship with Mexico…Mr. Pompeo will also have to mend fences with the American ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki R. Haley, whose relationship with Mr. Tillerson was so strained that she ordered his portrait removed from her New York offices." | | | | | | |
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