| | | | The Deal Trump Really, Really Needs | | | South Korean President Moon Jae-in's claim on Thursday that North Korea has dropped a longstanding demand that the United States withdraw its forces from the South in exchange for denuclearization has further fueled talk a breakthrough is possible. But if a deal gets done, it could be as much about President Trump's search for a win as a thaw on the Korean Peninsula, suggests Jacob Heilbrunn for The Spectator. "The blunt fact is that Trump has a lot more riding on the meeting taking place than the portly pariah of Pyongyang. Trump needs to score a foreign policy success. Big time. The North Koreans, not so much. In many ways, the North Koreans have already run the tables, as it were.
"Any talk of delivering a 'bloody nose' to North Korea is null and void. It's relationship with China seems to have solidified. And Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, has already visited North Korea to prepare the ground for talks. "It will be hard for Trump to resist some kind of deal. He's desperate to show that unlike Barack Obama, he can deliver the goods when it comes to dealing with North Korea. Nor is this all. The more he becomes enmeshed in domestic controversies, the more Trump will search for a foreign policy triumph." | | For Kim, It's Location, Location, Location | | | One issue left to resolve before any meeting between President Trump and Kim Jong Un is the venue. An editorial from China's state-backed Global Times underscores why the location of talks is such a thorny issue, especially for North Korea. "For North Korea, the ideal location would surely be Pyongyang. If Trump is sincere, he should visit Pyongyang. His predecessor Bill Clinton planned to visit North Korea when in office, so why can't Trump?" the paper says. "North Korea may have offered another choice of meeting in a Chinese city, such as Beijing, in an attempt to enhance its negotiating position. This would send a signal that North Korea is not isolated in protecting its national security." "North Korea could also suggest the Russian port city of Vladivostok, or the Mongolian capital of Ulaanbaatar, which lies between China and Russia and would provide a security guarantee. "If the aforementioned locations don't work out, then the final choice may be somewhere on the North Korean side of the military demarcation line, as Pyongyang won't agree to a summit in Seoul. This is not a safe place for Kim and might suggest he has given way to Washington-Seoul pressure in conducting dialogue with the core countries regarding the nuclear issue." "North Korea won't choose a Western country as Kim's safety could not be fully guaranteed and so Pyongyang would lose its edge." | | Trump Disrespected Abe. Now's a Bad Time: FT | | | President Trump's apparent reversal of his reversal on the Trans-Pacific Partnership and his fulsome praise of Xi Jinping during Shinzo Abe's visit to Mar-a-Largo were both a slap in the face for the Japanese prime minister, the Financial Times editorializes. Now's not the time to be alienating a crucial US ally. "The damage will be offset somewhat by Mr. Trump's promise to press Pyongyang on its abduction of Japanese citizens, a highly emotional issue in Japan. But there will be few people left in Japan who still believe Mr. Abe's boast of special influence over the American president," the FT argues. "Partly as a result of disillusionment with the US, Japan is cautiously cultivating better relations with America's strategic rivals. Mr. Abe's visit to Florida comes immediately after China's foreign minister toured Japan, the first such visit in almost a decade. Mr. Abe is also scheduled to call on Russian President Vladimir Putin next month. "Tokyo is well aware that Beijing would like to drive a wedge into the US-Japan alliance and will be careful not to fall into that trap. But the more Mr. Trump seems obsessed with the trade battles of the 1980s the harder it is for Japan to resist a hedging strategy that pulls it closer into China's orbit." | | | While the US is focused on destroying what remains of ISIS – with one eye on the exit – a "new and dangerous extremist group spawned from al Qaeda is consolidating power in northwestern Syria," Sune Engel Rasmussen writes for the Wall Street Journal. And its playbook will probably sound familiar. "Since surfacing as the country's most potent militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has battled Western-backed rebel groups to extend its control across Idlib province, enforcing its version of Shariah and raising funds by taxing flows of people and goods," Rasmussen writes. "The group's leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, a former al Qaeda fighter, has vowed to conquer Damascus and impose Islamic rule across Syria." "In areas under its control, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has set up a religious police force similar to that of Islamic State, residents say. It initially rewarded children with sweets for memorizing the Quran, but soon moved to breaking hookah pipes as part of a smoking ban and ordering clothes shops to cover heads of mannequins. Beauty salons were told to ditch makeup, Idlib residents say." | | The Times They Are a (Slowly) Changin' in Cuba | | | Cuba has a new leader, with Miguel Diaz-Canel succeeding Raul Castro as president on Thursday. The move marks "the first time in nearly six decades that Cuba is being led by a man not named Castro," CNN notes. And while the Diaz-Canel regime will likely start out looking a lot like the Castros', change is inevitable, writes Brian Latell for Politico Magazine. "Any reform efforts will proceed slowly—a still powerful old guard will see to that. But over time, Diaz-Canel will have to allow greater economic freedoms—the country's economic stagnation demands it," Latell says. "He knows he must soon begin to show results, especially for Cuba's restive younger generations who are resistant to the regime's incessant glorification of its hoary revolutionary past. He could win a measure of their good will by allowing greater access to the Internet and more freedom of artistic expression. He will likely depend on a new caste of younger officials, groomed like him in recent years for greater responsibility." "Cuban foreign policy objectives and strategies will change little, if at all. Maintaining the mutually beneficial relationship with Venezuela will remain a compelling priority. Nonetheless, Diaz-Canel may want to wean Cuba from Caracas' energy and financial benevolence, fearing that the unpopular regime of president Nicolás Maduro could collapse at any time." | | | Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's surprise announcement that the country will hold snap elections in June is just the latest example of how Edrogan has joined the club of leaders who like their country to have the trappings of democracy, but don't want to risk actually losing an election, writes Simon Tisdall in The Guardian. Call it "You vote, I win." "Elections had not been due for another 18 months. By bringing the polls forward, Erdoğan is finally set to gain full, personal control of all key aspects of domestic and foreign policy. He will become a dictator in all but name," Tisdall argues. "In a very real sense, Erdoğan, himself a one-time prison inmate who came up the hard way, has been waiting for this moment all his life. If and when he wins, he will assume the full powers of the new 'executive presidency' that was narrowly voted through in last year's bitterly contested constitutional referendum." "Worried politicians in Paris, Berlin, London and Washington no longer see a reliable friend and ally in Ankara. They see an autocratic figure exploiting nationalist and neo-Islamist sentiment, xenophobia and Europhobia, and feelings of public insecurity brought on by next door's Syrian crisis, to justify egregious human rights abuses, institutional vandalism and anti-EU, anti-western policies." | | | | | | |
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