January 7, 2019 | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Donald Trump's speech will make the shutdown worse

President Donald Trump will address the country at 9 p.m. ET tomorrow on the issue of immigration and, presumably, the ongoing fight over a border wall that has kept the federal government shut for the past 17 days.

The specifics of what Trump says -- and whether all the networks give him the airtime to say it (CNN has already announced it will) -- is tough-ish to predict. But it will almost certainly fall into one of two buckets.

Bucket 1: Trump announces he is declaring a state of emergency on the border, allowing him to use money allocated to the military to build a wall along the southern border.

Bucket 2: Trump cobbles together the various half-true -- and less than half-true -- statistics his administration has been using to create the idea of a crisis at the border, sprinkles in some anecdotes about violence committed by people in the country illegally and, voila, a prime-time address!

(I suppose there is a third bucket where Trump uses his prime-time bully pulpit to push a specific compromise plan. But I mean, come on.)

Under either scenario, the shutdown -- and the chances of it ending before it breaks a record as the longest shutdown in modern political history -- gets worse.

In Bucket 1, there are a series of legal challenges to Trump's ability to end run Democrats' refusal to allocate money in the federal budget to his border wall -- not to mention the massive political fight that would ensure.

"I'm confident he could declare a national emergency but what that may mean in terms of adding new elements to this -- in terms of court hearings and litigation that may carry this on for weeks and months and years -- to me injecting a new element in this just makes it more complicated," Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas told CNN's Manu Raju on Monday.

In Bucket 2, any progress made over the weekend -- as staffers for the two sides met behind closed doors -- would almost certainly be erased by the President's over-the-top rhetoric. Given that any deal made and passed through Congress still requires the President's signature to become law, putting Democrats on blast on national TV is almost certainly a bad thing.

Remember, too, that Trump has said -- as recently as last Friday -- that the shutdown could go on for a "very long period of time, months or even years." (That was Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer quoting Trump but the President has confirmed he said it.)

Add it all up and the chances of a prolonged shutdown just keep going up with each passing day.

The Point: When has Trump speaking to the public made a situation less polarized or controversial? Go ahead and think. I'll wait.

-- Chris

TRUMP HEADS TO THE BORDER

Not only will President Donald Trump take to the airwaves tomorrow night to push for his border wall measures, he's also taking flight. Trump will visit the border on Thursday to meet with security and humanitarian officials.

Meanwhile, the impasse over funding for the wall -- and the government shutdown -- drags on.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"When u give ur tv speech Tuesday night deliver it as if u were conversing with Iowans not New Yorkers."

-- Iowa Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley's advice to President Trump via Twitter ahead of Trump's Tuesday night address about the southern border.

MEET YOUR NEW CONGRESS: VERONICA ESCOBAR

We have a whole lot of new members to meet, with our new Meet Your New Members of Congress series. This week, we start with Democratic Rep. Veronica Escobar from El Paso,Texas.

Lauren caught up with Escobar to talk about how to elect more Latina women and the value in asking for a little help -- plus her favorite spot for Mexican food in her district.

Lauren Dezenski: You're one of two Latina women about to be elected to the House from Texas -- a first for the state. What does that mean to you? And how would you describe your relationship with Rep.-elect Sylvia Garcia?

Veronica Escobar: Rep.-elect Garcia is a woman I have much love and respect for, and I consider her a friend. There's no one I'd rather share making history with than her! And the historical component is very meaningful to me because I represent the border, and from my perspective, it is the border -- our safe, vibrant, beautiful community -- that is making history.

LD: How can more Latina women be elected across Texas -- and across the country?
VE: It is important for women in office like me to support strong Latina candidates up and down the ballot, but it's also imperative that we encourage more women like us to get involved at all levels -- from being campaign volunteers to running for school boards and city councils, we have to create a pipeline of leadership that will build a strong bench.

LD: What was your biggest lesson from your campaign?
VE: Don't be afraid to ask for help -- there are always great people willing, and their support and help is what wins races!

LD: What's your priority in your first term?
VE: I want to build strong relationships with my colleagues, support and sponsor legislation that will restore democracy, improve the lives of my constituents, and safeguard our planet.

LD: If 2018 is the year of the woman, what does that make 2019?
VE: The Year Of The Woman Part 3

LD: Did you have a New Year's resolution in 2018 -- and did you achieve it? What about 2019?
VE: I don't believe in New Year's resolutions. My goal, always, is just to try to continue to be a better person.

LD: What is your favorite thing to eat in your district?
VE: Great Mexican food -- either food that I've cooked for my family, or if we eat out, my favorite Mexican restaurant is L&J.

We have more interviews lined up with the new House members. Is there a new face we should talk to from your district? Email lauren.dezenski@cnn.com with your suggestions -- and thanks to everyone who has already reached out!

CHRIS' GOOD READS

WaPo's Scott Wilson on the new governor of California

The whole border wall fight is a political construct

It's (almost) Biden time, reports Jmart

This, from Vox's Sarah Kliff, is terrifying about the state of our country's healthcare

How Mark Burnett (re)created Donald Trump by Patrick Radden Keefe

The always great Bill Barnwell on what the 2018 NFL season tells us about the 2019 NFL season

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Chris' college roommate John Moye has impeccable musical taste. Every year he puts together a HUGE list of his favorite tunes. Here's his 2018 Spotify playlist!

WHAT 2019 MEANS FOR MUELLER'S INVESTIGATION

2019 is set to be a huge year with the Russia investigation.

Here are the big three questions we'll likely see answered in the new year:

How does the Mueller investigation end?
Will the public see Mueller's findings?
Will Trump fire Mueller?

But wait, there's more -- 13, to be exact, courtesy of our colleagues Katelyn Polantz and Marshall Cohen, giving a peek at what's to come in Mueller's investigation.

2020 UPDATE

Kamala Harris: The California senator is releasing her book tomorrow (in which she'll preview her 2020 message, of course) and will be on a media blitz to promote it for the rest of the week.

Joe Biden: The former VP still hasn't officially decided to jump into the race -- and those close to him say he needs to decide sooner rather than later. Biden will also attend this year's MLK Day Breakfast hosted by Al Sharpton and the National Action Network.

Sherrod Brown: The Ohio senator will decide in the next two months on his 2020 move, according to his wife.

Beto O'Rourke: The failed Senate candidate has been mum about his presidential aspirations lately, but that hasn't stopped operatives in early nomination states South Carolina and Nevada from joining a "Draft Beto" group.

YOUR DAILY GIF

From Brenna: "There it is, Pointers. The inaugural fiddling-with-glasses GIF of the year 2019. Sen. Chuck Schumer wielded those things like a pro. Didn't stop talking. Didn't drop them. Didn't poke himself with the arm. Send The Point to someone you know whose 2019 has gotten off to a start just as smooth as this."

We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.

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