| | | | A Potential Winner in Europe's Elections: Vladimir Putin | | | If populists make their expected surge in this week's European elections, Russian President Vladimir Putin could emerge as an auxiliary winner, writes former Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt in Project Syndicate. Russian links to Europe's far right have long been suspected (an impression Austria's current scandal has done little to dampen), and Verhofstadt writes that "for years, I have watched far-right MEPs vote against any EU parliamentary resolution that could be seen as 'anti-Russian.'" | | The Dangerous Message of War-Crime Pardons | | | After President Trump pardoned a US soldier who killed a detainee, and has been reported to be considering more pardons in the same vein, several commentators have pointed out the danger of the precedent.
Writing for CNN, Army Lt. Gen. (retired) Mark Hertling argues that such pardons undermine the discipline of the military and its orderly use of violence, blurring what separates it from criminals and terrorists, and The Economist warns that pardons would damage the military justice system and America's global standing.
But perhaps the most nuanced points come from World Politics Review Editor-in-Chief Judah Grunstein, who warns of perpetuating an unhealthy military "hero-worship," in which soldiers can do no wrong (a view not shared within the military, he writes); furthering the divide between the US military and civilians; and legitimizing political violence, by normalizing the idea that it's okay to do anything to an enemy. | | As the US and Iran square off, there are increasing signs that Iraq could be caught in the middle. Iraqi officials are "seriously concerned about the prospects of a military escalation on Iraqi soil," writes the Middle East Institute's Randa Slim, after a rocket landed inside Baghdad's Green Zone over the weekend. After their successful fight against ISIS, a panoply of Iran-backed Shia militias are playing a larger role in Iraq's politics and economy, and Iran may lean on these militias as tensions escalate, Omar Al-Nidawi writes for the same group.
Harassing US facilities in Iraq is among the weapons up Iran's sleeve, writes Michael Knights of The Washington Institute or Near East Policy. There, Iranian proxies use drones and could be armed with more sophisticated missiles, he warns.
All of which adds up to a dangerous potential for US-Iran tensions to spill over onto Iraqi soil. | | Running and Hiding From the Trade War | | With no end in sight to a US-China trade war that's dragging on the world economy (the IMF consistently warns of its weight on global growth), other countries will have to figure out what to do, writes Martin Wolf in the Financial Times. Typically, US allies would stand with America, but as President Trump has turned it into a "rogue superpower," they're instead looking for a workaround, Wolf writes.
He proposes a novel solution: a "global FTA [free-trade agreement] of the willing," in which any country willing to abide by its rules could join. That's an ambitious idea, but it may hint at where things are headed: countries like the EU, Japan, and Canada working around the bilateral US-China standoff to form a new network of arrangements.
As for private investors wary of new ups and downs, Bloomberg's Nir Kaissar suggests they take refuge in emerging markets, which, though traditionally volatile, are poised to offer higher returns. | | Risks, Rewards for the Developing World as Tech Evolves | | The so-called "fourth industrial revolution"—wherein the world is swamped with driverless cars, robot factory workers, and AI—might affect the developing world differently, according to a series of essays published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
On the whole, developing economies are less prepared for automation, one study found, and automation may block manufacturing as a path to employment growth across the developing world; advancements in surveillance and facial recognition, meanwhile, may enable developing-world autocrats and kleptocrats. On the bright side, developing countries might be able to "leapfrog" their more-developed counterparts, adopting newer technologies and skipping older ones, as has been the case with the fast spread of mobile banking, for instance. | | | | | | |
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