| | | | Barack Obama 2012 > Donald Trump 2020 |  | | Brad Parscale, Donald Trump's 2020 campaign manager, took to Twitter earlier this week to make a pretty bold claim. Here it is:
"After reviewing polling data from President Obama's reelection, we can say unequivocally that President Trump is in a significantly better position now than Obama was at the same point of his presidency."
Which is a pretty major statement! After all, Obama cruised to a second term with 332 electoral votes in 2012!
So is Parscale right? I did a bit of digging in the polls and, turns out, he's not. (Don't act surprised.)
Consider this:
* Trump is at 42% job approval in the most recent Gallup weekly tracking poll. Obama was at 51% approval at roughly this same stage of his first term.
* Trump has never been over 50% in Gallup job approval numbers. Not once. Obama spent most of his first term with approval numbers at or above 50%. And he was more than 300 days into his first term when his job approval rating finally dipped below 50%. (You can compare the two side by side using Gallup's terrific Presidential Job Approval Center tool.)
* Here are Trump's 2018 approval ratings, according to Gallup, in five key swing states he won in 2016: Pennsylvania (42% approve/54% disapprove), Ohio (48%/48%), Michigan (42%/54%), Wisconsin (42%/53%) and Florida (43%/51%). Now compare those with where Obama was in 2011: PA (45%/48%), MI (48%/44%), OH (42%/50%), WI (47%/44%) and Fl (44%48%). In only one of the five -- Ohio -- is Trump in better shape than Obama.
* In May 2011, 39% of respondents said they would "definitely" not vote for Obama again. In May 2019, 54% said the same of Trump. (Hat tip Harry Enten)
And all of that doesn't take into account that Obama had more ground he could afford to lose than Trump does. Obama won his first term with 365 electoral votes, while Trump took 304.
The Point: Parscale is entitled to his own opinions, but not his own facts. And the facts make clear that Obama in May 2011 was better positioned to win a second term than Trump is in May 2019.
-- Chris | | "We believe that the President of the United States is engaged in a cover-up."
-- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi resisting her colleagues' calls for impeachment. It was this "cover-up" comment, per White House advisers, that caused Trump to derail today's planned meeting on infrastructure. | | | SO MUCH FOR INFRASTRUCTURE WEEK | | | Sure, President Trump calls a deal on infrastructure "one of the easy ones." And Sen. Chuck Schumer says, "We are interested in doing infrastructure."
But, in reality, progress on an infrastructure deal in this administration has been much harder to come by.
Today was supposed to be the second round of talks around a $2 trillion infrastructure package, but Trump had already preempted this meeting by saying Congress must first act on his USMCA trade deal (the one that would replace NAFTA) before he will play ball on infrastructure.
AND there had been little indication of how anyone expected to pay for the $2 trillion infrastructure package. That was all before Pelosi even uttered the words "cover-up" this morning.
An actual deal on infrastructure anytime soon is increasingly looking like a pipe dream. No wonder the phrase "infrastructure week" has become an in-joke among some political observers. | | How "The View" came to matter so much in politics, via Amanda Fitzsimons
Emily Jane Fox on the rise and fall of Michael Avenatti
Nevada may say "goodbye" to the Electoral College
The investigative reporting we need about the new Australian prime minister
The Ringer ranked the best "GOT" episodes
RIP, San Francisco | | | Chris is a biggety big fan of Kishi Bashi. Here's some new music from him (Kishi Bashi, not Chris). | | Donald Trump Jr. apparently has a book coming out later this year.
We don't know much about the President's son's forthcoming book, but it will "focus on politics, current events and the future of the MAGA movement," a source close to Trump Jr. told Politico Playbook, which broke the news. | |
LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST | | Beto O'Rourke: Called for President Trump to be impeached in his CNN town hall last night.
Cory Booker: Vows to take executive action to protect abortion rights if elected president.
Kirsten Gillibrand: Would implement a "Family Bill of Rights" in the first 100 days of her presidency if elected, which would include paid family leave and affordable, universal pre-K.
Joe Biden: Is being criticized by North Korea as a "fool of low IQ."
Julián Castro: Is the latest Democrat to commit to appointing only judges who say they would uphold Roe v. Wade. | | | | | | |
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