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Thursday, May 2, 2019

The Point: Donald Trump's economic #'s are through the roof. But ...


May 2, 2019  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Donald Trump's economic #'s are through the roof. But ...

Here's a great headline for Donald Trump as he turns toward his 2020 re-election bid: "CNN Poll: Trump's approval rating on the economy hits a new high."

And the story, which details new poll numbers out from CNN, is equally good news for Trump. Wrote CNN's Grace Sparks of the numbers:

"The result comes on the heels of the announcement that the US economy grew at a much better rate than expected in the first quarter, and Trump's performance on the economy becomes one of his prime selling points for next year's general election.

"Trump's previous high mark in CNN polling on handling the economy came in March 2017 when 55% approved. Since then, he's edged above 50% four times, but this is the first time it's been meaningfully over the 50% line."


Big deal, right? After all, if past is prologue, the state of the economy is perhaps the biggest indicator of a president's chances of getting re-elected. "You hate to sound like a cliche, but are you better off than you were four years ago? It's pretty simple, right? 'It's the economy, stupid.' I think that's easy," White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney said earlier this week in Los Angeles. "People will vote for somebody they don't like if they think it's good for them."

Except ... there's this: In the same CNN poll, Trump's overall job approval rating is just 43%. While that's better than previous findings that had the President in the upper 30s, it's not exactly a comfortable place to be heading into a bid for a second term. Especially when you have an economy that a) is widely perceived to be booming and b) that a majority of Americans give you credit for.

The delta between 43% and 56% is obviously huge; in terms of the 2020 presidential election it's the difference between losing in a landslide and winning in one. Neither outcome is likely for Trump, largely because our current polarization makes a blowout -- on either end of the win-loss spectrum -- very, very hard to imagine.

But what's clear from those two numbers is that Trump and his team have their work cut out for them between now and November 2020. They need to figure out how to convert a chunk of people who disapprove of Trump but think the economy is doing well and credit him for that fact. It's of course doable, but the fact that Trump's approval rating hasn't moved upward -- as views on the strength of the economy (and his role in it) have -- has to be somewhat concerning for the Trump team.

The Point: Trump is an atypical president by virtually every measure. Might he break the longtime correlation between strong economies and presidents winning reelection come 2020?

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"How do you go through those witch hunts and everything else? And you know what we do, Mike (Pence)? We just do it. Right? And we think about God."

-- President Trump at today's National Day of Prayer event at the White House.

WATCH: LYIN' TRUMP

Donald Trump's 10,000 falsehoods and counting

The Washington Post counted all of President Trump's distortions, exaggerations and outright falsehoods since taking office. In 900 days, Trump has said a whopping 10,000 things that aren't true -- and he isn't slowing down.

Keep up with The Point on YouTube -- subscribe now!

LAUREN'S GOOD READS

Kamala Harris gets a boost from her Barr questioning

Welcome to the great podcasting boom 

Chasten Buttigieg got the WaPo profile treatment

Vocal members of the alt-right have been banned from Facebook and Instagram

The (alleged) Russian spy whale is apparently defecting to Norway

Lauren is SO excited for Vampire Weekend's new album, out tomorrow

So you're telling me googly eyes can change the world

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

It's Thursday and, a la Hot Chip, I am "Ready for the Floor."

INSTA POINT

Today's topic: The 'chicken' hearing on the Mueller report was very dumb.

HEEERE'S TIGER!

Winning the Masters again was just the start. 

Golf pro Tiger Woods is headed to the White House next week to receive the nation's highest civilian honor from the avid golfer in the Oval Office.

President Donald Trump will award Woods the Presidential Medal of Freedom in a ceremony in the Rose Garden. 

The Medal of Freedom recognizes individuals who have made "an especially meritorious contribution to the security or national interests of the United States, world peace, cultural or other significant public or private endeavors," according to the executive order designating the award. Since taking office, Trump has presented the award to numerous athletes, including Alan Page, Roger Staubach, and a posthumous award to Babe Ruth.

LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST

Michael Bennet: Is the latest entrant to the Democratic presidential field, bringing the candidate count to 21(!).

Kirsten Gillibrand: Is scheduled to participate in a Fox News town hall on June 2 from Iowa.

Bernie Sanders: Personally spearheaded his campaign's effort to take on Joe Biden.

Elizabeth Warren: Has a plan for restructuring Puerto Rico's debt.

Kamala Harris: Responded to President Donald Trump calling her "nasty" after her exchange with AG Bill Barr. 

Tulsi Gabbard: Said the Trump White House is "saber rattling" and the country should work with Russia to avoid a nuclear conflict over Venezuela.

THE GANG'S ALL HERE

Check it out: Each of the 21 Democrats running for president, compiled by CNN's photo team. Can you name them all?

YOUR DAILY GIF

From Brenna: "Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen ate some KFC for breakfast. I am now running for Congress because apparently that's a place suited to my ideal lifestyle choices. Share The Point with a Kentuckian in your life."
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.
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