| | | | Fareed: President Trump's Bizarre Iran Speech | | President Trump's announcement that he is decertifying Iran's compliance with the nuclear agreement, while punting the issue to Congress, was "one of the most bizarre speeches by an American president on foreign policy for a long time," Fareed says.
"There was a strange internal incoherence about this statement. Trump went on a diatribe against the agreement, and yet we're still in it – the president is harshly criticizing a policy that he is also upholding," Fareed says.
"By arguing that Iran is not complying with the spirit of the deal, he seemed to be implying that Iran is still complying with the actual terms of the agreement, which is something his own advisers have said previously. Remember, Iran has been certified as complying eight times by the International Atomic Energy Agency, as well as by intelligence agencies around the world. So, I think many people are left wondering what exactly this announcement is supposed to mean.
"There's no question that Iran has engaged in actions in places like Yemen and Lebanon that the United States isn't happy about, although we also have to remember that the U.S. has done things in the Middle East that Iran doesn't like, too. But the point is that the nuclear deal doesn't deal with broader foreign policy issues – because it was never meant to. The deal was about one specific thing – what the United States and many other countries saw as Iran's quest for nuclear weapons. The deal was meant to freeze Iran's capacity and roll it back in certain areas. And it has been extremely successful at that.
"Ultimately, this looks more like political signaling than anything else, because there is no new policy here for the world to follow. Instead, the president has simply raised tensions without achieving anything."
| | Trump, Deal Breaker-in-Chief: Friedman | | From trade to climate to culture, President Trump has been less about deal making than deal breaking, writes Uri Friedman in The Atlantic. Trump calls this almost unprecedented string of U.S. rebuffs to international agreements "America First." Other people, "The Withdrawal Doctrine."
"It's not unheard of for American presidents to withdraw from international agreements or organizations; Ronald Reagan also quit UNESCO, citing its alleged anti-American bias," Friedman writes. "Nor is it unprecedented for American presidents to try to adjust the terms of U.S. involvement in those agreements and organizations, especially when they take the White House from the opposing party; Barack Obama renegotiated George W. Bush's trade agreements with Colombia, Panama, and South Korea.
"But there may be no previous instance in modern American history when deal breaking has been so central to an administration's posture in the world. And the approach can't entirely be attributed to Trump's disdain for his predecessor's policies; Obama brokered the TPP trade deal, the Paris climate accord, the Iran nuclear agreement, and the Cuban thaw, but it was George W. Bush who rejoined UNESCO and Bill Clinton, building on the work of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, who orchestrated NAFTA." - What UNESCO withdrawal means. U.S. frustration with UNESCO long predates the Trump administration's announcement that it will withdraw from the organization, writes Joshua Keating for Slate.
"The latest friction comes after a UNESCO vote in June that referred to Israel as an 'occupying power' in Jerusalem. The move is consistent with Ambassador Nikki Haley's vow during her confirmation hearing to combat what she called the 'U.N.'s long history of anti-Israel bias.' But given that the U.S. already doesn't fund or vote at UNESCO, the actual impact of the move will probably be minimal. The U.S. says it is seeking 'permanent observer' status at the organization."
| | Fareed: How China Is Leaving U.S. in the (Coal) Dust | | While the Trump administration pursues a futile quest to revive the industries of the past, China is investing heavily in the future, Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column. "Who do you think will win?"
While President Trump talks about bringing back jobs in coal, China "has become one of the world's leading producers of wind turbines and solar panels, with government subsidies enabling its companies to become cost-efficient and global in their aspirations. In 2015, China was home to the world's top wind-turbine maker and the top two solar-panel manufacturers. According to a recent report from the United Nations, China invested $78.3 billion in renewable energy last year — almost twice as much as the United States.
"Now Beijing is making a push into electric cars, hoping to dominate what it believes will be the transport industry of the future. Already China has taken a large lead in electric cars."
"Trump has often talked about how China is 'killing us' and that he's tired of hearing about China's huge growth numbers. He should notice that Beijing is getting its growth by focusing on the future, the next areas of growth in economics and technology."
| | China's Biggest Aid Recipient? (Clue: It's Not North Korea) | | | China has handed out almost as much foreign aid this century as the United States, writes Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian for Foreign Policy. The biggest recipient? Russia.
"Between 2000 and 2014, Beijing provided Moscow with a total of $36.6 billion in loans, grants, and other agreements, according to a years-long study published today by the College of William and Mary's AidData research lab. The next-highest recipient of Chinese foreign aid during that period was Pakistan, at $24.3 billion, followed by Angola at $16.6 billion. (North Korea, for all the talk of China propping up the regime, got a paltry $272.65 million -- officially, at least)," Allen-Ebrahimian writes.
"Foreign aid comes in two flavors. Development assistance includes grants or loans at below market rates, while 'other official flows' include loans at near market rates and that involve some commercial considerations. Chinese foreign aid to Russia is almost exclusively the latter category -- and is mostly about getting the thirsty Chinese economy access to Russia's huge reserves of oil." | | Brazil's Troubling Coup Talk | | Recent remarks by a general claiming Brazil's military leaders had discussed overthrowing the country's government – and the lack of public pushback from politicians – are an ominous sign, writes Alex Cuadros in the New Yorker. Indeed, with the country in economic and political turmoil, some Brazilians are starting to look back fondly on Brazil's last coup, in 1964.
"Today…with the country registering sixty thousand homicides a year, plenty of Brazilians are nostalgic for those days of law and apparent order. Many believe that the generals cleansed the nation of graft," Cuadros writes. "In reality, as a government truth commission showed in 2014, this perception only reflected the regime's censorship of the press and control of the judiciary. Under the dictatorship, kickbacks lubricated Brazil's political system just as they always had.
"Still, the myth survives, with dangerous implications. Its current embodiment is a soldier-turned-congressman, Jair Bolsonaro, who has been polling in second place for the 2018 Presidential election." | | | | | | |
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