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Tuesday, November 7, 2017

The Point: How Donald Trump just lost. Bigly.

Nov. 7, 2017 #ElectionDayby Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy

How Donald Trump just lost. Bigly.

Tuesday night was a very bad night for Donald Trump.

At one level, that's obvious. The two biggest races on the 2017 ballot -- contests for governor in New Jersey and Virginia -- both went for Democrats.

But dig down a level and you see just how bad things were for Trump on Tuesday -- particularly in Virginia.

Heading into Tuesday's election, polling suggested that Republican Ed Gillespie was closing the margin against Democrat Ralph Northam -- although Northam, the current lieutenant governor, still held a narrow lead.

The race turned out to not be that close as Northam cruised to a victory.  

A look at the exit polls show why. Just more than four in 10 Virginia voters said they approved of the job Trump was doing as president, while 57% said they disapproved. Even more revealing is that of the 50% of Virginians who said Trump was a factor in their vote, twice as many said they were motivated to send a message of opposition to Trump than said they were voting to send a message of support for Trump.

Gillespie didn't fully embrace Trump, but it didn't matter. Virginia voters saw this governor's race as a chance to send a very clear -- and very negative -- message to Trump. Gillespie was simply a casualty of that message-sending.

Trump, of course, sought to immediately distance himself from Gillespie's loss. Just minutes before delivering a major foreign policy speech in South Korea, he tweeted: "Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don't forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!"

Some of Trump's most ardent supporters will undoubtedly buy that line solely because Trump said it.

But you know who won't believe Trump? Vulnerable Republicans politicians up for election or reelection next November. Tuesday's results just made them a whole lot more nervous.

-- Chris

...and the results are in


CNN's Ryan Struyk broke down exit polls from the most important races on Election Day 2017. You can check out the full live coverage here, but we've pulled some highlights below.
  • Democrat Ralph Northam won in Virginia thanks in large part to women. He leads women by a broad 21 percentage points in Virginia, according to exit polls.
  • Northam more than doubled Clinton's lead among white college-educated women, six points vs. 15 points.
  • A whopping 78% of voters who named health care as their top issue voted for Northam in Virginia, according to exit polls.
  • Nearly three in four independents voting in Tuesday's election in Virginia say they want Confederate monuments left in place, according to exit polls.
  • Democrat Phil Murphy won the governor's race in New Jersey, with help from some key Democratic constituencies. Trump's dismal approval rating -- just 33% in New Jersey -- plus the abysmal approval rating for sitting GOP Gov. Chris Christie boosted Murphy over the top. He won a whopping 84% of nonwhites and 77% of voters under 30 years old, according to early exit polls.
In other Election Day news...
  • From CNN's Greg Krieg: New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio shocked the city's political elite when he won the Democratic primary in 2013 and, with a landslide victory on Tuesday, locked up a second term after a campaign run without a serious challenge from anyone inside his own party or, in this fall's general election, city Republicans, who all but ceded the race.
  • From CNN's Eli Watkins: The city of Miami declared Francis Suarez its next mayor on Tuesday night, and St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman declared victory in his re-election bid against Republican Rick Baker, who conceded as votes rolled in.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

Elections!

Omarosa, by Politico's Josh Dawsey

What a year of living in a constant state of breaking news has done to us by Slate

An amazing story of what happens when a child prodigy grows up by The Atavist's Mike Mariani

The Ringer's David Shoemaker on the life and times of Ric Flair

It's never too early! The NYT holiday gift guide is here!

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Sam Smith's "The Thrill of It All" album is a nice DC rainy day listen.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"My donors are basically saying, 'Get it done or don't ever call me again.'"
-New York Republican Rep. Chris Collins on tax reform

RUSSIA WATCH

CNN's Marshall Cohen, Tal Yellin, and Liz Stark  put together a very useful and important interactive Russia tracker, for all things Russia investigation. 

It "tracks the publicly known developments of the sprawling investigations into Trump and Russia – and probably represents a slice of what has actually taken place."

Check it out here. We highly recommend bookmarking it.

🚨 POLL ALERT🚨

New numbers from a CNN poll conducted by SSRS found that favorable views of the Democratic Party have dropped to their lowest mark in more than a quarter century of polling

More from CNN's Ryan Struyk

Only 37% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Democrats, down from 44% in March of this year. A majority, 54%, have an unfavorable view, matching their highest mark in polls from CNN and SSRS, CNN/ORC and CNN/USA Today/Gallup stretching back to 1992.

The rating includes low favorable ratings from some core Democratic groups, including nonwhites (48%) and people under 35 years old (33%). The numbers come amid recent feuds and divisions in the Democratic Party, as former interim chair Donna Brazile's new book has unveiled new questions about infighting during the 2016 presidential campaign.
But the Republican Party isn't doing any better, with just 30% of Americans holding a favorable view. That's essentially the same as September, when the rating hit its lowest point in polling back to 1992, but down from 42% in March. A broad 6 in 10, 61%, have an unfavorable opinion.

Check out the full CNN story here.

AZ SENATE RACE UPDATE

Photo courtesy: Screengrab/CNN/KGUN video
Arizona Congresswoman Martha McSally, who represents southeast Arizona's second congressional district, is planning to enter the 2018 Senate race, the Arizona Republic reported Tuesday.

She reportedly told Republican colleagues in the Arizona delegation about her intentions to vie for the seat being vacated by the retiring Jeff Flake. But as CNN's Eric Bradner reported last week, conservative groups have been trying to scare Rep.McSally away from Arizona's Republican primary.

"McSally, a decorated military veteran and second-term House member who has won in a competitive district and is a strong fundraiser, is seen as the preference of national Republicans and Gov. Doug Ducey," Bradner wrote.

"But her history of criticizing President Donald Trump made her the target of a show-of-force statement from conservative groups that spend heavily in GOP primaries, including the Club for Growth, the Senate Conservatives Fund and FreedomWorks."

ANOTHER TWO BITE THE DUST

New Jersey Republican Frank LoBiondo and Texas Republican Ted Poe both said Tuesday they will not seek re-election next year.

"As some of my closest colleagues have also come to realize, those of us who came to Congress to change Washington for the better through good governance are now the outliers," LoBiondo said in a statement. "Today a vocal and obstinate minority within both parties has hijacked good legislation in pursuit of no legislation."

Poe, in his announcement via Twitter, said he was proud of the work he had done during his time in office.

"I will continue this work every day until I retire at the end of this term," Poe said. "And that's just the way it is."
LoBiondo and Poe join a growing list of Republicans not seeking a re-election, including Reps. Pat Tiberi of Ohio, John J. Duncan Jr. of Tennessee, Dave Reichert of Washington, Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, Rep. Dave Trott of Michigan and Rep. Lamar Smith of Texas.

CNN's Eli Watkins has more on LoBiondo here and Poe here.

YOUR DAILY GIF

H/T CNN's Brenna Williams (who we will no longer troll with her Thanksgiving-themed Twitter name)
In honor of his final Election Day as New Jersey governor, here's a throwback to a GIF of Chris Christie in a presser with President Donald Trump. In case you missed it earlier today, Christie got in a bit of an argument with a voter after being confronted at his polling place. Until next time, Election Day! Don't forget to tell all your friends and family to subscribe to The Point.
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba.
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