| | | | Trump's Following His Instincts on Syria. That's Bad for America: Boot | | President Trump's comment at an event last week that the United States would be "coming out of Syria like very soon," and news this week that he has placed a hold on more than $200 million in recovery funds for the country, are signs that the President is following his instincts, Max Boot writes for the Washington Post. That's bad news for US policy in the region.
"Withdrawing the 2,000 or so US troops might allow the Islamic State, which today controls less than 7 percent of Syria's territory, to rise again. It would almost certainly allow Iran to gain control of eastern Syria, creating a land bridge from Tehran to Damascus and Beirut that would increase the danger to Israel."
"Perhaps the most morally troubling consequence of a pullout — meaning that it will not trouble this president in the slightest — is that it would represent a betrayal of the Kurds and Arabs in the Syrian Democratic Forces who have fought alongside US troops against the Islamic State. The SDF fighters are the most moderate and reliable allies that the United States has in Syria." - Trump's words are like ghosts. The debate over what to do next in Syria is also a reminder of one of the biggest changes in the Trump presidency from that of its predecessor, Fareed says. "Now, words are weightless"
"Remember the criticism of Barack Obama on that famous red line he drew on Syria. The criticism was that Obama had warned Bashar al-Assad about the use of chemical weapons, but that he didn't fully follow through on the threat when those weapons were utilized. Obama was supposed to have cheapened American credibility because that warning wasn't completely fulfilled.
"Yet fast forward to today, and our heads are left spinning on an almost daily basis. Trump threatens to rain fire and fury on North Korea, then decides he wants to get together with Kim. He accuses China of 'raping' America on trade, then treats Chinese President Xi Jinping like his best friend. He accuses the Saudis of treating women like 'slaves,' then lavished praise on the Kingdom.
"In the past, Republican and Democratic presidents alike were careful about their words. There was a sense that the President speaks with the credibility of the most powerful country in the history of the world. And now you have a President for whom words are weightless. They are like a ghost. He pushes them out there, but they mean nothing, and he can change what he thinks about anything he has said."
| | Is Iraq Slipping Away from America, Too? | | An alliance agreed by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi "with a group representing the country's most hard-line Shiite militias…some of them designated by the United States for terrorism" quickly fell apart. But the fact that it was announced at all is a troubling sign for America's influence in the country – and the broader Middle East, argues John Hannah in Foreign Policy.
"While the issue may not rise to the urgency of a rogue state acquiring nuclear weapons, the stakes in Iraq are nevertheless extremely high for the United States — certainly higher than most people appreciate," Hannah says.
"Rather than use armed attacks or terrorism to drive out the Americans, and risk a dangerous confrontation, [Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps] would much rather manipulate Iraq's democratic politics to send the US packing. If it succeeds, it's very hard to see how the United States could resist a request from a newly elected, sovereign Iraqi government to pack up and leave," Hannah says.
"That would be borderline catastrophic — not just a humiliation for the United States, but a major strategic victory for Iran. Without a secure military foothold from which to operate in Iraq, America's ability to counter the IRGC's hegemonic ambitions across the Middle East's northern tier would be put at severe risk."
| | | Japan is frequently Exhibit A in any discussion of the economic perils of falling birthrates. But emerging economies like Brazil -- which don't yet have wealthy nations' infrastructure or institutions -- are facing similar aging pressures, write Paul Kiernan and Luciana Magalhaes in the Wall Street Journal. And the consequences could be even more dire.
"Chronic housing shortages have left every major city dotted with makeshift settlements known as favelas. São Paulo's subways have one-fifth the mileage of New York's, although São Paulo has 40% more people. Nationally, more than half of sewage goes untreated. The average adult has just eight years of formal schooling," they write.
"Tackling such growth-impeding problems has long been a government priority, but the financial firepower for it is set to erode. Retirement outlays already eat up 43% of Brazil's national budget, and health care about 7%, while two expenditures that are critical to economic development—education and infrastructure—claim only about 3% each.
"The social security system's revenue shortfall widens each year as the worker-to-pensioner ratio shrinks. The United Nations projects that by 2050, the number of potential workers per retiree in upper-middle-income developing countries such as Brazil will tumble from the 2015 figure of seven to just 2.5." | | The Developing World Picks Up a Dangerous Habit from the Rich One | | Widespread overuse of antibiotics could see the number of people dying from antibiotic-resistant infections soar to 10 million a year in the next three decades. Rich countries may have started the problem, but developing nations are set to make it much, much worse, The Economist says.
"Although developed economies cut their use of antibiotics by 4% in the 16 years to 2015, consumption soared by 75% in the rest of the world," according to a study of 76 nations.
"Thankfully, antibiotic use in China and India, the world's two most populous countries, is still below the global average. But they are quickly catching up: daily dosage per person has risen by 65% in India and 70% in China since 2000. If they and other countries continue on this path, the researchers project that global antibiotic use could reach a feverish 125 billion dosages a day, up from 42 billion in 2015."
The likely result? WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warns: "Antimicrobial resistance will take us back to a time when people feared common infections and risked their lives from minor surgery." | | | | | | |
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