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Monday, April 2, 2018

The Point: 4 groups that are warming up to Donald Trump

April 2, 2018  by Chris Cillizza and Greg Krieg

4 groups that are warming up to Donald Trump

The big headline from CNN's new national poll was this: Donald Trump is at his highest approval rating in nearly a year.
 
Yes, as Trump critics note, 42% approval isn't exactly great. And as the one and only Harry Enten points out, Trump's approval rating gains look less impressive when viewed over the broader sweep of his time in office.

That said, Trump was at 35% approval in a February CNN poll and at 42% in a March CNN survey. That's a gain worth exploring. Which I did.

Here are four subgroups among which Trump performed significantly better in March than he did in February:
  1. Men. Trump was at 50% approval in March as compared to 42% approval in February. 
  2. Young voters. In February, just 1 in 5 voters aged 18-34 approved of how Trump was handling the job. In March, that number increased to 30%
  3. Middle-aged voters. Trump's gains among the young(ish) were one-upped by his showing among those between 35 and 49 years old, where he gained 9 points in approval in a month.
  4. College graduates: A group that has long been resistant to Trump had the biggest change of heart toward him between February and March: A 10-point swing. 
The Point: Trump's gains among young voters and college graduates are intriguing -- even if they need to be leavened with the fact that they represent a snapshot in time. Looking for an explanation? The tax cut, most likely.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I want to thank the White House Historical Association and all of the people that work so hard with Melania, with everybody, to keep this incredible house or building, or whatever you want to call it -- because there really is no name for it; it is special -- and we keep it in tip-top shape. We call it sometimes tippy-top shape. And it's a great, great place..."

--President Donald Trump, current resident of that incredible house/building/whatever you want to call it

ESTY WON'T SEEK REELECTION

Rep. Elizabeth Esty is on her way out.

The Connecticut Democrat kept her then-chief of staff on the payroll for months despite abuse allegations against him from a former staffer, it was revealed last week.

Esty was hoping to hang on, and she might have in the pre-#MeToo era, but the details were too damning. She announced her decision in a Facebook post late this afternoon.

VLAD TO VISIT?

CNN's Jeremy Diamond reports on what was said -- and when 

"President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the possibility of meeting at the White House during a phone call last month, the White House confirmed on Monday.

'As the President himself confirmed on March 20, hours after his last call with President Putin, the two had discussed a bilateral meeting in the 'not-too-distant future' at a number of potential venues, including the White House,' White House deputy press secretary Raj Shah said in a statement.

Shah's comment came after Yuri Ushakov, an aide to Putin, said Trump 'offered to hold the first meeting in Washington, in the White House.'"

Read more here.

TRUMP'S DACA BLITZ

President Trump has spent the last 48 hours ginning up anger and confusion about immigration policy, blaming Democrats for the DACA impasse he created by ending the policy, then conflating the matter with the caravan of Central American migrants heading north through Mexico in search of asylum.  

Two points here:

1. From Chris: "What Trump is doing is using the caravan to play on the fears of the country -- and, in particular, his supporters. The mental image he is conjuring is something out of 'Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome:' Hordes of ill-intentioned people surging toward the United States with malice in their minds."

"The just-below-the-surface message is this: White people made this country great. Brown people are flooding in. They pose an existential threat to your daily life and what the future holds for your children. If you don't fight back now, you may lose everything."

2. From Greg: "DACA is not, as the President claimed, available to undocumented immigrants and asylum seekers hoping to cross the border today.


"Fact checking Trump is required work, but it has its limits. More important -- and useful -- may be understanding his underlying tactics. Doing that begins with accepting one abiding truth: If the President wanted a deal on DACA with congressional Democrats, he could have easily agreed to one -- and gotten plenty in return."

TEACHERS STRIKE IN OKLAHOMA AND KENTUCKY

More than 200 schools across Oklahoma closed on Monday as hundreds of public school teachers, protesting the lack of education funds allocated by the Republican-controlled legislature and Gov. Mary Fallin, walked off the job.

This follows a successful strike by teachers in West Virginia, and comes as educators in Kentucky, who are also demonstrating today, bring growing attention to low pay and dismal school funding. Chris asked The Oklahoman's Ben Felder, who wrote this explainer, how the impasse gets broken: 

Felder's answer: "When the Legislature provides a substantial funding increase for public schools. It's hard to say how much funding it would take to please educators, but my guess is it has to at least be $100 million. Getting the legislature to increase any more taxes will be a tough task, but there are a few proposals on the table, including an end to the capital gains tax deduction and approving ball and dice gaming at casinos."

Here's their full conversation.

And here's the backstory, a tale of Big Oil vs. Oklahoma teachers, from CNN's Bill Weir. Wondering how much teachers in your state get paid? CNN's Sam Petulla has this useful guide.  

CHRIS' GOOD READS

I'm baaaaaaaack!

New York Mag's Jon Chait argues that corruption, not Russia is the key to understanding President Trump's problems

"Is DC being too mean to Louise Linton?" asks Washingtonian's Elaina Plott

New York Timesman Nicholas Fandos asks a key question: Would firing Robert Mueller ensure Trump's impeachment?

Vox's Ezra Klein talked to Mark Zuckerberg about the future

Loved this from the Ringer's Shea Serrano on the absolutely amazing ending to the women's national championship game

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Don't tell me you "don't like" country music until you hear Kacey Musgraves. This is her new one

EX-VA CHIEF: YOU CAN'T SAY I QUIT, YOU FIRED ME

Someone isn't telling the truth.

Former Veterans Affairs secretary David Shulkin says he was fired by the White House. The White House says Shulkin resigned.

Here, from CNN's Juana Summers, is why it matters: "When President Donald Trump announced on Twitter last week that Shulkin would depart the agency and that a Defense Department official, Robert Wilkie, would serve as acting secretary, he side-stepped Shulkin's deputy, Thomas Bowman, who was next in the line of succession."

"If Shulkin was indeed fired, Trump's decision to replace him with Wilkie, instead of following VA's line of succession, could imperil any decisions Wilkie makes while serving at VA in an acting capacity. There could be legal challenges to any actions that Wilkie makes, at a moment when VA is at a crossroads and decisions are looming about some of the department's biggest functions."

Bottom line: Among those big decisions is whether to privatize the VA's services. This is very controversial and sure to be a big question, from both sides of the aisle, in nominee Ronny Jackson's confirmation hearings. Shulkin has written that he was pushed out because he opposes it. What happens now, though, as this gets worked out, could be tough to reverse.  

DEM CANDIDATE CALLS FOR SINCLAIR BOYCOTT


 
CNN's Eli Watkins reports:

"A Democratic candidate in Kentucky said Monday that she will pull her campaign ads from a local Sinclair station and called on other Democrats to do the same.

Amy McGrath, a retired Marine running in a tough primary to challenge Republican US Rep. Andy Barr, said she had instructed her campaign team 'to cease and pull all campaign advertising on WDKY-TV (Channel 56), the Sinclair-owned television station in our congressional district, as soon as possible."

McGrath cited a viral video from Deadspin that splices together clips of local news anchors at Sinclair-owned stations all reading from the same script, decrying 'fake stories' in the press and online.

McGrath said the script 'eerily mimics the propaganda efforts that authoritarian regimes often use to control the media in their own country' and called on all Democratic candidates in the country to join her in a boycott of Sinclair."

Read more here.

#2020 WATCH

Early 2020 presidential polling is beginning to yield consistent returns.

A CNN poll, conducted by SSRS, shows that a top tier of potential Democratic contenders -- all of them facing questions about whether they'll run due to age and other factors -- seems to be emerging: Former Vice President Joe Biden is the most broadly popular pick, with 84% of Democrats saying they are either very or somewhat likely to support his potential nomination. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders comes next at 75%, followed by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 68%.

Then there are three younger Democratic senators who are still building national name ID: California Sen. Kamala Harris: 53%; New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker: 50%; New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand: 48%.

For more on the week ahead, CNN's Eric Bradner, Greg Krieg and Caroline Kenny have it you covered.
 

INSTAPOINT

Click on CNN Politics' Instagram story every Monday through Friday afternoon for more #content, courtesy of Chris and CNN's Brenna Williams.

YOUR DAILY GIF

H/T Brenna
That's all from us. A reminder here --> to tell people you know to subscribe to The Point
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba.
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