Friday, October 19, 2018

Fareed: What the Khashoggi Case Says About America

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Jason Miks.

October 19, 2018

Fareed: What the Khashoggi Case Says About America

"The apparent barbaric killing of Jamal Khashoggi tells us something important about Saudi Arabia. But it also tells us something important about the United States," Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman "has moved Saudi Arabia forward in some areas while moving it toward greater repression in others. But the larger issue is that US foreign policy should not be based on personalities. President Trump's worldview seems utterly rooted in his likes and dislikes of other leaders—including Kim Jong Un, Angela Merkel and MBS. In the Middle East, this has led to the blind subcontracting of US foreign policy to Saudi Arabia. Washington has watched and de facto endorsed the kingdom as it ramped up its war in Yemen, blockaded Qatar, quarreled with Turkey and essentially kidnapped the prime minister of Lebanon. All of these moves have, in large measure, failed."

…And Its Energy Policy

Oil prices certainly shouldn't be the only factor the US considers on how to respond to the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi, writes Meghan O'Sullivan for Bloomberg. But policymakers who believe the recent US energy boom means it can ignore the Middle East are mistaken.

"[A]s long as America remains tied to global oil markets, it has deep energy interests in what happens in Saudi Arabia. Although the US could become a net exporter of energy in a few short years, this just means that…America will be producing more energy than it consumes," she writes.

"But this is not the same thing as being self-sufficient in oil. Even in this net energy export scenario, the US will still be consuming more oil than it produces, and will need to secure that oil from some other country. However small that quantity of oil might be, it will ensure that the United States remains integrated into the global market—and that the price at which supply and demand meet globally will have a major impact on the price Americans pay at the pump. In short, Saudi Arabia, one of the largest producers of oil and the largest exporter of it, retains major influence over the energy reality of the world—and the US."

Bad for Merkel, Bad for Europe

The poor showing by a coalition ally of Angela Merkel's party in Bavaria's election is a blow to the German chancellor. It's also another blow to Europe, too, The Economist argues.

"Feeble government in Germany could hardly come at a less propitious time. Britain seems headed for a no-deal Brexit at worst or many months of crisis at best. Italy's unstable populist coalition has set itself on a collision course with the European Commission by proposing an unsustainable budget. Spain's minority government commands just 24% of the Chamber of Deputies. Sweden has little prospect of forming a government any time soon. And even France is reeling from badly handled crises and a propensity for arrogance that have weakened President Emmanuel Macron at home and annoyed his partners abroad. Weak leaders and parties with nothing to say to anxious voters have allowed support to drift to the extremes. It is not a cheerful picture, and it is likely to get worse," The Economist argues.

Cold War = Hot Planet

Fears over a US-China cold war typically focus on disruptions to trade or even a potential military clash in the South China Sea. But there's another potential threat posed by escalating tensions, writes Minxin Pei for Project Syndicate: worsening climate change.

"As it stands, China produces over nine billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year, making it the world's largest emitter. The US comes in a distant second, emitting about five billion metric tons annually. If these two countries, which together are responsible for 38% of annual global CO2 emissions, are unable to find common ground on climate action, it is all but guaranteed that humanity will miss its last chance to prevent catastrophic global warming," Pei writes.

"A Sino-American cold war would make such an outcome far more likely. The US would insist that China drastically cut its emissions, because it is the world's number one polluter in absolute terms. China would counter that the US bears more responsibility for climate change, in both cumulative and per capita terms. Locked in geopolitical competition, neither country would be willing to budge. International climate negotiations, already monumentally challenging, would end in deadlock. Even if other countries did agree on measures, the impact would be insufficient without the US and China on board."

Brexit Isn't the End of Anything

The European Union's problems won't disappear with Britain's eventual exit, writes Timothy Less for the New Statesman. Member states like Hungary and Italy are already pushing to change the system. Don't be surprised if core countries decide they are better off walking away.

"A Great Schism may seem far-fetched from the vantage point of 2018. But the political calculus will be very different come the start of the next decade when the EU confronts the next recession, which is inevitable. With the eurozone unreformed, interest rates already at zero and its weakest members sitting on a pile of new debt, the next crisis is likely to hit hard," Less writes.

"What will happen when troublesome elements such as Italy and Greece once again find themselves in financial straits? Will the EU's core members dig deep into their pockets, as they did before?

"That seems improbable. More likely is that the creditor states cut the Mediterranean loose and concentrate on shoring up their own defenses."

Forward

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