| | | | 5 things to know 14 days before the midterms | | The election is coming! The election is coming!
Two weeks from today, the country will head to the polls and offer us the first nationwide report card -- not just on President Donald Trump, but also the Republican and Democratic parties.
So at this point, what do we know? And what do we know we don't know? Here's my attempt to answer both of the questions.
1. History is on the side of Democrats. Since the Civil War, there have only been three midterm elections in which the president's party didn't lose seats in the House. THREE! Could this be the fourth? Sure. But it's not the likeliest outcome -- especially when you consider Trump's approval rating is in the mid-40s. Historically, that means losses of 30+ seats for the president's party.
2. Women are energized. And not for Trump. In the 69 battleground House districts identified by The Washington Post, women are going for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate by 13 points. That's especially meaningful when you consider that of the 69 districts, 48 of them were carried by Trump in the 2016 election.
3. The playing field is (almost) all in GOP territory. Of the 28 seats CNN rates as "toss ups," 26 of them are held by Republicans. Of the 15 seats rated as "lean Democratic," 13 of them are GOP-held. Of the 18 seats CNN ranks as "lean Republican," all 18 are held by Republicans. There are massive swaths of GOP vulnerability and almost no corresponding Democratic problem seats.
4. The GOP base got an energy bump from Kavanaugh. There's no question that the fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which Trump effectively cast to his supporters as an attempted destruction of a good man by the liberal left, energized a previously "meh" base. What is up for debate is whether that surge will last -- both because a) it's in the rearview mirror and b) conservatives got what they want (Kavanaugh is on the court).
5. Democrats are drowning Republicans in ads. Democrats' fundraising edge throughout the election cycle has translated into a MAJOR TV ad edge in the closing weeks of the campaign. According to the amazing Wesleyan Media Project, Democrats sponsored 208,000 ads in House races versus 128,000 from pro-Republican candidates and organizations between September 15 and October 18. In that same period, Democrats aired 171,000 ads in Senate contests as compared to 118,000 by GOPers. And Kantar Media/CMAG's assessment of more than 100 of the most competitive House and Senate contests showed that Democratic candidates have outspent Republicans about $256 million to $145 million on TV.
The Point: Add up what we know and leaven it with what we don't and, on balance, this is still looking like a good election for Democrats in the House. It's less clear what a favorable Democratic environment means for Senate Democrats given the fact that so many of the party's incumbents are trying to hold states that went strongly for Trump two years ago.
-- Chris | | "It is inconceivable that there are not people of Middle Eastern descent in a crowd of more than 7,000 people advancing toward our border."
-- Vice President Mike Pence when asked for proof of President Trump's claim that Middle Easterners are in the migrant caravan heading to the US-Mexico border. | | | BORDER CROSSINGS, BY THE NUMBERS | | The number of family members apprehended crossing the US-Mexico border in September?
16,658.
This was the highest-ever number of US-Mexico border apprehensions recorded in a single month, according to the Department of Homeland Security.
Some months' counts come close: - June 2014: 16,330 apprehensions
- December 2017: 16,139 apprehensions
Of course, border crossings have become even more politicized, as President Donald Trump has called publicly for stricter immigration policies in the final weeks of the midterm election campaign. | | | This guy Bob Dylan makes some decent music. I think he might make something of himself. | | | Today's topic: President Trump embraced nationalism. Here's why that matters. | | The current and most recent former occupant of the Oval Office are duking it out on the campaign trail in support of their respective parties ahead of the midterm elections. Former President Barack Obama is back on the campaign trail again this week, hitting not one but two states to stump for Democrats ahead of the midterm elections. Obama will be in Detroit on Friday alongside his former Attorney General Eric Holder to stump for candidates up and down the ticket, according to The Detroit News. This comes on the heels of his visit yesterday to Nevada. | | Obama's travel schedule is nothing compared to Trump's, however.
With 40 stops on the calendar and counting, President Donald Trump continued his own midterm swing and yesterday, while in Texas, raised eyebrows with one word choice.
"You know what I am, I'm a nationalist," he declared, as the crowd erupted in "USA! USA!" chants. "Use that word."
But there's something tricky -- and loaded -- about that word, as Chris writes:
"It dates back to the 17th century and rose into prominence during the uprisings in the 18th century that produced the American and French revolutions. But the word attained more of a negative connotation during the 20th century as it became associated with the nationalism movements in Europe that helped lead to World War I and World War II. Today the word is often associated with the far-right, racist ideologies of white nationalists." | |  | Donald Trump's humiliation of Ted Cruz | | | Texas Sen. Ted Cruz needs President Donald Trump's help campaigning in the final weeks of his re-election bid. Chris explains why that's ... awkward. | | 🚀 OUT OF THIS WORLD: BONUS QUOTE OF THE DAY 🚀 | | | "The purpose of Space Force is to protect and secure America's vital interests in space ... and to ensure America is dominant in space as it is here on Earth." | | | | From Brenna: "Doctor slash HUD Secretary Ben Carson was at the Future of Health Summit this morning, looking a lot like someone walking out of the convenience store trying to wrangle the six feet of receipts they send with us out into the world. You know what wastes no paper? This newsletter, which you should share with your friends." | | | | | | |
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