| | | | 2018: The health care election ⚕️ | | The best way to know what the two parties believe an election is actually about is to look at what TV ads they are running in the most competitive races in the country. Why? Because ads cost money. And parties don't waste money on ads they don't think will work.
Which brings me to the latest numbers from the Wesleyan Media Project, an amazing effort to track the ads being run by candidates, party committees and super PACS in federal races in the 2018 midterms. And this very important conclusion:
"In the period between September 18 and October 15, nearly half (45.9%) of airings in federal races mentioned the topic while nearly a third (30.2%) of gubernatorial airings did the same. Although both parties are mentioning health care, the topic is most prominent in ads supporting Democrats, appearing in 54.5% of pro-Democratic airings."
Not only is health care the dominant issue on which TV ads are focused in this election, but it is also a MUCH bigger focus than it has been in past elections (during which, you'll remember, health care was a major issue!) This chart from Wesleyan gets at that comparison:
That a majority of all pro-Democratic ads that have run during this period touch on health care speaks to the fact that Democrats believe the issue, which played a central role in their disastrous results in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections, has turned into a good one for them.
That sense is borne out in polling; asked which party would do a better job in dealing with health care, 54% named Democrats in Congress while just 36% chose congressional Republicans in a CNN-SSRS poll earlier this month.
It's also borne out by the defensiveness of Republicans when it comes to health care -- starting with President Donald Trump. On Thursday afternoon, he tweeted:
"All Republicans support people with pre-existing conditions, and if they don't, they will after I speak to them. I am in total support. Also, Democrats will destroy your Medicare, and I will keep it healthy and well!"
The problem for Republicans -- at least those who were in the House or Senate over the last two years -- is that lots and lots of them voted for the full repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare. Which means they voted to get rid of the law's provisions that prevent insurance companies from refusing care to people with pre-existing conditions and that allow a child to stay on his or her parents' insurance until age 25. Those pieces of the bill were always VERY popular, and remain so. And most polling on the overall law suggests it has become more and more popular since President Barack Obama left office.
The Point: For all the talk of how this election will be about immigration or Russia or President Trump's bullying, following the (ad) money shows you the truth: This election is about your health care, and which party wants to protect it.
-- Chris | | "You think you're having a hard time -- I got $5 million worth of negative ads going at me."
-- GOP Rep. David Brat, speaking to an addiction support group during a recent visit to Chesterfield County Jail. | | | EVERYTHING IS BIGGER IN TEXAS | | Guess they found a bigger stadium.
President Donald Trump's Monday night rally with Ted Cruz has been moved to a larger space.
This is after Trump promised this summer to hold a rally for Cruz in the "biggest stadium we can find" -- and then booked the 8,000-seat NRG Arena.
The Trump-Cruz rally will now be held at Houston's 19,000-seat Toyota Center (which, for the record, is still not Houston's largest stadium).
Meanwhile: Tune in tonight for a town hall with Cruz's opponent, Democratic Senate candidate Beto O'Rouke, in McAllen, Texas, moderated by CNN's Dana Bash. (CNN invited Cruz multiple times to appear tonight in his own town hall, but he declined). | | | Sharon Van Etten has new music! This is very, very good news. | | | Today's topic: Paul Manafort and Robert Mueller have been spending a lot of time together 👀 | | Nearly a week after songstress Taylor Swift issued an endorsement of Democrat Phil Bredesen over GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee, Bredesen has a narrow lead in a new poll, specifically bolstered by support from women.
Coincidence? Probably.
But here are the numbers:
44% say they would vote for Bredesen
43% say they would vote for Blackburn
Among women, the margin grows: 49% prefer Bredesen while 37% favor Blackburn. | |  | Why Elizabeth Warren's DNA test totally backfired | | | Did the likely 2020 hopeful's DNA test do more harm than good? Chris investigates. | | Democrats are dominating the airwaves in key House races across the country.
And that dominance is especially clear in the 61 most competitive races this year, according to data from Kantar Media/CMAG.
In the second week of October, Democrats and Republicans are targeting the New York 22nd (GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney vs. Democrat Anthony Brindisi) and Maine 2nd (GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin vs. Democrat Jared Golden), though Democrats spent the most in the New Mexico 2nd race (Democrat Xochitl Torres Small vs. Republican Yvette Herrell).
As CNN's Aaron Kessler writes, "In both House and Senate races since January 1, there have been nearly 893,000 Democratic political ads that ran on television, and just over 680,000 Republican ones." | | | From Brenna: "First, he re-registered as a Democrat. Then he pointed at someone in a crowd. What will Michael Bloomberg do next??? I know one place that'll tell you (hint: here -- it's right here)." | | | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment