| | | | 9 midterm races with Electoral College implications | | | Redistricting! It's not just for wonks.
Here's why it really matters -- and why the 2018 election will have a major impact on the election cycles to come:
Voters this fall will install 30 governors and more than 800 legislators that will be responsible for redrawing voting districts in three years -- which will have a major impact in each and every state in the country, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
And for a select handful of states (flashing in that nifty graphic above as projected by the NSCL), their projected major population gain (or loss) means that they are gaining (or losing) representation in Congress -- and Electoral College votes.
The redistricting process happens every decade. And the people involved with that process, in many cases, local legislators (some states use appointed commissions) will be the ones involved in drawing the lines -- and many governors will have the power of veto to nix or approve those redrawn districts.
This will make the already complicated -- and political -- process even more contentious.
The 2010 cycle's redistricting process was insanely political, with Republicans who had made huge gains in the tea party wave controlling much of the process. This time around, Democrats are hoping to have more sway over the new district lines, the NSCL's redistricting expert Wendy Underhill told me this week.
Organizations like the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, helmed by Eric Holder and backed by former President Barack Obama, say they want to confront the gerrymandering inherent in the process.
"Proponents of these measures are wishing to have a less political process. Whether they get that with their process remains to be seen," Underhill said.
Here are major 2018 races we're watching in those states expected to gain (or lose) Electoral College votes after 2020: Key governors' races: (all would have veto power over their state's redrawn district lines) - Oregon (+1 vote) has a close race between Democratic Gov. Kate Brown and Republican challenger Knute Buehler
- Florida (+2 votes) Democrat Andrew Gillum is facing former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis for the open governor's seat.
- Ohio (-1 vote) between Democrat Richard Cordray and Republican Mike DeWine.
- Michigan (-1 vote) has an open race for governor between Democrat Gretchen Whitmer and Republican Bill Schuette.
Key state House races: - Michigan, (-1 vote) is home to where Democrats are hoping to break the Republican trifecta (where one party controls both chambers of the House and Senate and the Governor's office). Republicans currently have a 63-47 majority in the state House -- Democrats need to flip nine seats to take the House.
Key state Senate races: - New York (-1 vote) currently has an evenly split Senate of 31 Republicans and 31 Democrats. Could a Democratic wave turn the longtime-red Senate blue?
- Florida (+2 votes) has Democrats hoping to flip five seats to gain a majority.
- Colorado (+1 vote) has Democrats vying to break the slim Republican majority in the Senate. Should they win back the Senate by flipping one Republican seat, retain control of the House (which is expected) and win the governor's office, they will re-capture their trifecta lost in 2014.
- Minnesota (+1 vote) has only one State senate race on the ballot this year. It's also the only seat Democrats would need to win to gain control of the Senate.
-- Lauren | | | In case you missed it: This is a special midterms-focused edition of The Point newsletter, which will publish every Saturday until Election Day. Let us know what you like or don't like about it at cillizza@cnn.com and dezenski@cnn.com. (Don't want a Saturday edition? That's fine! Opt out here, and we'll see you back here for your regularly scheduled Point newsletter on Monday night.) Thanks for reading! | | | | QUESTION TIME WITH CHRIS CILLIZZA | | Lauren Dezenski: Chris! Let's talk a little bit about redistricting. This is something that Democrats like Barack Obama and Eric Holder are trying to make into a campaign issue this year and beyond -- is there any sense that is actually working? Is it translating into actual voter interest, or is this just a super wonky issue that will stay super wonky?
Chris Cillizza: Oh, regular voters don't care about redistricting. At all. But that doesn't mean it isn't super important to who represents them and the relative fates of the two parties for the decade after the decennial line-drawing process. BUT, Obama and Holder don't need average voters to care. They need a few very wealthy donors to care enough to write big checks to help them win state legislatures (and governorships) in places like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and a few others -- where we know seats are going to be gained and lost in 2020. (After the Census, the # of congressional districts each state has are reallocated based on population growth and loss.) If they can turn some state legislative chambers and a few governorships in key states, it can make a giant difference in the line-drawing.
Sidebar: This is why 2010 was such a disastrous election for Democrats. Yes, they lost control of the House but they also lost a TON of governorships and state legislatures -- in the last election before the Census and redistricting. As a result, Republicans totally controlled the redistricting process in a LOT of key states.
LD: You've talked a bit about potential 2020 hopeful Sen. Elizabeth Warren's DNA test results (and the negative blowback she's gotten as a result), but I want to touch on the timing of it all. Why do this now, in the midst of the 2018 election? Why not wait -- or just not do it at all?
CC: I genuinely don't know.
My guess is that Warren -- or someone she trusts -- decided that enough was enough and that she needed to fight back against Trump calling her "Pocahontas." So they made a video and had her take a DNA test – all aimed at proving a) she is what she says (modestly Native American) and b) that she is ready to fight Trump toe-to-toe.
The problem is that the results are murky, and the numbers that get thrown around -- she could be as little as 1/1024th Native American -- make things worse, not better, for Warren. She becomes even more of a punchline for Trump and Republicans, and Democrats are no more reassured that she can handle this issue if she is the nominee in 2020.
This was a bad move for Warren. The issue isn't behind her. And she's going to have to address it again, is my guess.
LD: New polling out of New Hampshire shows Granite State voter interest in Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and, somewhat surprisingly, John Kasich. What's the takeaway here?
CC: That people don't really have any idea who they want just yet. The most important number in that poll is 74% -- that's the percentage of people who say they don't really have an opinion about the 2020 field yet. Warren's lead – she's at 15% -- is based entirely on name ID. (She represents a neighboring state with a shared media market in southern New Hampshire.) Ditto Biden. (He was the VP for nine years.) Kasich? Who knows – other than that maybe people assume he is a Democrat because he has been so critical of Trump?
LD: Anything else worth noting?
CC: Yes! Health care is the key to this election. I don't think we can pay too much attention to how much money is being spent on ads about health care. | | 📈POLLERCOASTER, #FITN EDITION 📉 | | It's open season in New Hampshire, literally.
We're still more than a year away from the New Hampshire primary, but it's never too early to check the temperature of notoriously flinty Granite State primary voters ahead of 2020.
And thanks to a new #FITN poll from St. Anselm College and the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, we have the numbers:
For Democrats, there are some early favorites: Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden.
But the vast majority of New Hampshire Democrats (74%) have no preferred candidate.
And among Republicans, only 30% would support a primary challenge to President Donald Trump (who also has a 42.6% approval rating among NH voters). | | MEANWHILE IN NORTH DAKOTA | | Heidi Heitkamp has had a heck of a week.
She's down in the polls against Republican opponent Rep. Kevin Cramer, is facing blowback over her swing vote against Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation, and stepped in it, so to speak.
More from CNN's Dan Merica:
"The Heitkamp campaign, looking to attack Cramer for suggesting 'tough people' do not identify with the national conversation around sexual assault and the treatment of women, ran an open letter that slammed his comments and was signed by 127 women." ...
"Shortly after the letter published, women began to come forward to say they were either included without their permission or were not survivors of 'domestic violence, sexual assault, or rape,' as specified in the letter."
Heitkamp subsequently issued a personal apology as well as immediately apologized during a debate with Cramer this week. | | AIR(WAVE) TRAFFIC CONTROL | |  | "Axe" :30 — Joe Donnelly | | How do you run as a Democrat in deep-red Indiana?
You highlight your support for Trump's border wall, tout your anti-abortion credentials and slam the "liberal left" -- all while swinging an axe.
Meet Sen. Joe Donnelly, the incumbent Democrat fending off a challenge from Republican Mike Braun, and Donnelly's 30-second spot "Axe," (which happens to also look a lot like the infamous "Chopping" ad from Veep). | | The next surprise face on the campaign trail is... Michael Cohen?
The President's former lawyer -- who once said he would take a bullet for Trump -- is prepared to campaign against Trump and other Republicans in both 2018 and 2020, according to CNN's MJ Lee.
Cohen also changed his political affiliation to "Democrat" last week, according to his lawyer.
We don't know when Cohen will hit the trail, but he HAS started speaking out. | | | 📍President Donald Trump will rally in Nevada, Texas and Wisconsin
📍Lindsey Graham to Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, South Carolina and Tennessee
📍Paul Ryan to Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky and Wisconsin
📍Mike Pence, Ben Sasse, Eric Swalwell, and Andrew Yang to Iowa
📍Terry McAuliffe, Corey Booker and Julian Castro to New Hampshire
📍Deval Patrick to North Carolina
📍Barack Obama and Joe Biden will be in Las Vegas
📍Kamala Harris to South Carolina, Wisconsin and Iowa
📍Bernie Sanders in Wisconsin, Arizona, Colorado, California, Iowa and South Carolina | | | | | | |
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