| | | | | This is a special midterms-focused edition of The Point newsletter, which will publish every Saturday until Election Day. Let us know what you like or don't like about it at cillizza@cnn.com and dezenski@cnn.com. (Don't want a Saturday edition? That's fine! Opt out here, and we'll see you back here for your regularly scheduled Point newsletter on Monday night.) Thanks for reading! | | | The big midterms question: Who will turn out? | | It may be tried, but it remains true: It all comes down to turnout.
And when we're talking about the midterms, it's important to keep in mind that the people turning out this November are different from those turning out in a presidential election.
Midterm voters tend to be older, white, wealthier and better educated, according to American University professor Andrew Ballard.
They also tend to be more politically active voters, tapped into their local, regional and national political landscape, such as "the non-Texans who are trying to stream the O'Rourke and Cruz debate even though they live in New York," Elizabeth Simas, an associate professor of political science at University of Houston told me this week.
And fewer people vote in midterm elections than presidential ones. Take a look at turnout over the last decade (numbers via the US Census): - 2016: 136,381,696
- 2014: 92,251,000
- 2012: 129,067,662
- 2010: 95,987,000
That corresponding spike and dip, cycle after cycle, is called the "sawtooth pattern of turnout," Simas said.
While efforts to get out the vote could increase turnout on Election Day, don't expect it to surpass a general election, where there is a high-profile race on the ballot across the country.
"It would be pretty shocking if we ended up with turnout that is higher in 2018 than it was in 2016," Ballard said. "But it wouldn't surprise me if the turnout in 2018 was overall higher than turnout in recent midterm elections."
One thing to watch, Simas notes: If there is higher than normal turnout, pay attention to where that comes from, especially if it's in swing states like Arizona, Nevada and Florida.
"Voting is habit-forming," Simas said. "If these areas generate new voters and new voting patterns, then it has implications going forward to the presidential elections."
The Point: When it comes to the midterms, those voters tend to be older, white, wealthier and well educated. But this year, and every year, it all comes down to turnout -- who turns out where. | | | We're back for another week of answers with the campaign edition Q&A with Chris Cillizza: Lauren Dezenski: This week we saw coverage around Kamala Harris' hero's welcome in Iowa (at least among the people who knew who she was). Is there anything to read into strong enthusiasm in an early voting state like Iowa for someone like Harris? Or is this just a flash in the pan? Chris Cillizza: Look, organic excitement and energy is the lifeblood of successful candidates. So having it is a lot better than not. And with Harris there is clearly some passion out there for her beyond just Iowa. I was somewhat surprised that she polled third — behind former vice president Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders -- in our CNN 2020 poll. Now. It's October 2018. There won't be a vote in Iowa or anywhere else for more than a year. So we need to always be careful when drawing BIG conclusions about stuff happening in early voting states right now. LD: Let's talk about the politics of this caravan. President Donald Trump is seeking to make it a campaign issue -- even though at this rate, it's still going to be hundreds of miles from the US-Mexico border on election day. How effective do you think it will be in galvanizing Trump's base to turn out this year?
CC: In crass political terms, the caravan is a stone-cold winner for Trump when it comes to the Republican base. No issue animates them more -- with the possible exception of judgeships. Which is why Trump has started to describe this as an election of "Kavanaugh and the caravan."
Is he using hyperbole and untruths to score political points on the caravan with his base? Absolutely. Will that matter to his base? Absolutely not.
LD: When we chatted last week, you said health care is the key to this year's election, and is a major touchstone in millions of dollars in ad buys. How is that the case?
CC: You can make a strong case that health care -- and, in particular, the Affordable Care Act -- has been the central issue of the last three midterms. In 2010 and 2014, Republicans capitalized on their base's disgust with what they believed to be a major government intrusion -- and not for the good. This time around it looks likely to help Democrats, as their candidates make the case that lots and lots of Republican incumbents voted to gut provisions like no discrimination for pre-existing conditions.
Why is health care such a potent issue? Because it touches everyone's lives -- sometimes daily. This isn't some theoretical conversation about what a policy might mean for you. This is real-life impacts from policy makers in Washington. | | Thanks to this handy graphic from CNN's David Wright and Aaron Kessler, you can follow the money!
The 2018 midterm elections are on pace to be the most expensive in history, with record-smashing fundraising fueling a geyser of campaign spending, they write. Track the record amount of donations to party committees in 2018 down to the zip code.
The highest concentration of Democratic donors: zip code 20815, which covers Silver Spring and Chevy Chase, Maryland, just adjacent to Washington, D.C. Donors have given more than $400,000 to Democrats.
The highest concentration of Republican donors: zip code 77002, which covers Houston, Texas. Donors there have given $539,605 to Republicans. | | POLLERCOASTER: GEORGIA GOV EDITION | | Brian Kemp: 49%
Stacey Abrams: 47%
These new numbers out of Georgia, via NBC/Marist, offer a rare glimpse into the contentious race for governor between Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams.
More from CNN polling pro Grace Sparks: "There have been few quality polls of the Gubernatorial race in Georgia, so NBC/Marist is a valuable number with the election creeping up and the poll showing the race as tight as it is." | | ARE YOU IN OR ARE YOU OUT? | |  | Freedom | | It's Joe Manchin on a motorcycle. Need we say more?
The Democratic senator from West Virignia is up for re-election against Republican challenger Patrick Morrissey. The race is currently listed as "lean Democrat" in CNN's Key Races. | | While expressing his displeasure over the coverage of the "'bomb' stuff" on Twitter on Friday, President Donald Trump also offered a preview of his potential post-Election Day spin in case of a Democratic wave.
"Republicans are doing so well in early voting, and at the polls, and now this 'Bomb' stuff happens and the momentum greatly slows - news not talking politics. Very unfortunate, what is going on. Republicans, go out and vote!" he wrote on Twitter.
Trump has already indicated that he hopes to shift blame away from anything he did to explain any potential Republican losses. Remember him saying in October that even if Republicans get a shellacking this November, it won't be his fault?
The President has seized on the caravan of thousands of Central Americans working its way north to the US-Mexico border in an attempt to galvanize his base ahead of the midterms. In addition to mentioning it at rallies and on Twitter, he plans to deploy 800 members of the military to the border. The White House is also considering making an immigration speech in the home stretch of the campaign. | | | 📍President Donald Trump to Illinois and Florida
📍Donald Trump Jr. to Montana
📍Joe Biden to Iowa
📍Cory Booker to New Hampshire
📍Amy Klobuchar to Iowa
📍Jeff Merkley to New Hampshire
📍Ayanna Pressley to Connecticut
📍Bernie Sanders to California
📍Elizabeth Warren to Rhode Island | | | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment