| By Julia Horowitz • Thursday, October 3 | | | | Happy Thursday. In today's newsletter: The other trade war, Tesla's disappointing record and Hong Kong's retail plunge.
US stock futures point slightly higher after the Dow fell nearly 500 points on Wednesday. Markets in Europe opened mixed, mirroring stocks in Asia.
▸ Forwarded this newsletter? Want global markets news and analysis from CNN Business reporters every morning? You can sign up here. | | | What's happening now in markets: MARKET DATA AS OF 6:20 AM ET | | MARKET FLASH Another trade war is not what investors want
A two-front trade war is the last thing global investors want to be thinking about right now.
Following a green light from the World Trade Organization, the United States said it plans to impose tariffs on $7.5 billion worth of European exports starting October 18. On the list: olives, wine and cheese. Should the tariffs be enacted, as seems likely, Europe will retaliate.
The tariffs are the latest twist in a long-running dispute that centers on the support European and US governments provide to the world's biggest airplane manufacturers, Airbus and Boeing. This isn't a new fight.
But fresh levies will certainly be viewed in the context of the president's larger trade battles, which have thrown grit in the wheels of the global economy. Consider this more dirt.
In some corners, the market reaction has been muted. Shares of Airbus, whose planes will be subject to a 10% tariff, are actually up 3%.
However: That's mostly because the Trump administration has shown some restraint. For now, tariffs will be at 10% and 25% levels. This is less severe than tariffs of up to 100% on $25 billion worth of European items, as had been previously proposed.
For investors worried about the health of the global economy and spillover to the United States, this is yet another headwind to take into account. After all, markets aren't exactly rock solid right now. | |
See here: A surprisingly weak report on US manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management was followed Wednesday by disappointing private employment numbers for September from payroll firm ADP. This has pushed the S&P 500 down 3% in two days. The price of gold, which had been dropping, is back above $1,500, per December futures contracts.
"The ISM report caught investors off-guard, while the tariffs and ADP data delivered a mean right hook leaving them dazed and vulnerable," Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note to clients.
Meanwhile, tensions in Hong Kong keep rising as pro-democracy protests continue, and Brexit remains a mess even as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushes for a deal before October 31. The FTSE 100 fell 3.2% on Wednesday, its largest one-day drop since January 2016.
Add in the US impeachment inquiry against Trump, and market bears have plenty to cling to.
Watch this space: This heightens attention on the data releases still coming this week — namely the ISM non-manufacturing index, which will reveal the resilience of the service sector, and the September US jobs report.
"We're definitely fine as long as the service economy stays fine," Max Anderl, a fund manager at UBS Asset Management, told me this week. | | VOICES How the United States can avoid a recession "I think we are bottoming out, and the effect of the Fed easing would be to get things much better ... by the end of the year or the early part of 2020."
KRISHNA MEMANI, VICE CHAIRMAN OF INVESTMENTS AT INVESCO
Watch his full interview on CNN Business' digital live show "Markets Now." | | CORPORATE WATCH For Tesla, even good news is bad news | |
Tesla delivered approximately 97,000 cars for the three months ending in September, a record for the company.
But, once again, higher expectations pose a problem. The number beat the 95,200 and 63,000 cars the automaker had delivered in the previous two quarters, but still came in lower than Wall Street predictions, my CNN Business colleague Clare Duffy writes.
In an email to employees last week, Musk said Tesla expected to notch 110,000 orders for the quarter, and aimed to deliver as many as possible by Sept. 30.
Shares of the company are down more than 4% in premarket trading.
Tesla's challenges: The company is still working out kinks in its distribution network, and auto sales around the globe are slowing. Investors are also worried about how the company will hit profitability as it shifts to the more affordable Model 3, which has lower margins, and sales for the Model X and Model S remain "soft," according to Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities.
"While the doomsday scenario is off the table with cash in the coffer and Model 3 sales ramping, the question on the minds of investors is around profits into 2020," Ives wrote Wednesday in a note to clients. | | UP NEXT
Constellation Brands and PepsiCo report earnings before US markets open. Costco will follow after the close.
Also today →
▸ The Institute for Supply Management's September non-manufacturing index arrives at 10 a.m. ET.
▸ US factory orders for August will post at the same time.
Coming tomorrow: Time for the US September jobs report.
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WHAT WE'RE READING AND WATCHING
▸ E*Trade cuts commissions to zero, along with everyone else (CNN Business)
▸ Big Tech's eco pledges haven't reduced ties to Big Oil (AP)
▸ Uber will launch a new app that pairs businesses with temp workers (FT)
▸ In the UK, 'Corbynomics' may be more popular than you think (Bloomberg)
▸ This is your chance to buy an apartment in Manhattan (CNN Business)
▸ Boeing prioritized costs over safety, engineer alleges (WSJ)
▸ An online betting merger highlights opportunities in the US (CNN Business) | | | OKAY, SO... Retail sales have slumped in Hong Kong
Hong Kong's retail sales fell 23% in August compared to the previous year, we learned this week. That's a big acceleration from July, when they fell more than 11%. Analysts are calling it the sharpest year-on-year decline on record.
In a research note, economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch outlined a string of contributing factors. Ongoing protests and political unrest have hit tourism, which fell by almost 40% in August. Luxury retail sales of items like jewelry, watches and clocks — which the bank refers to as a proxy for tourist spending — plunged 47% compared to 2018. That can't be good for the big European luxury goods brands.
Don't expect a recovery before the end of the year, Merrill Lynch warns. With a weak yuan and economic growth slowing in mainland China, there's not much reason to think conditions will improve any time soon.
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