October 9, 2019 | by Chris Cillizza and Devan Cole

Is Joe Biden getting worried about Elizabeth Warren?

On Wednesday in New Hampshire, Joe Biden dropped his past protestations against the impeachment of President Donald Trump and, well, just went for it.

"To preserve our Constitution, our democracy, our basic integrity, he should be impeached," the former vice president said of the current White House occupant, adding: "He's shooting holes in the Constitution. And we cannot let him get away with it."

Biden had previously indicated that he favored considering impeachment for Trump only if the administration refused to turn over documents to Congress related to the ongoing Ukraine investigation. On Tuesday night, the White House made clear they would not cooperate in any way with the House impeachment probe.

On its face then, Biden's hand was forced by the White House's decision not to cooperate at all. And that undoubtedly was a factor! But so likely did this fact: In four of the last five national polls aggregated by Real Clear Politics, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren takes a larger share of the national primary vote than Biden. And for the first time in this race, Warren's polling average is now above Biden's -- albeit by .2 percentage points.

What those numbers mean is that Biden is really starting to feel the heat from Warren. While she has been rising in polls for months now, it's become clear of late that she isn't slowing down much, even as she approaches and passes Biden, who has been the race's frontrunner since the day he announced his candidacy.

And Warren has built her momentum on her embrace of unapologetically liberal positions. That included support for an impeachment inquiry way back in April 2019 in the wake of the release of the Mueller Report. She said late last month that the impeachment investigation should now focus on the pressure campaign brought to bear by Trump and his government against Ukraine.

Biden, by contrast, has played it far safer to this point -- blasting Trump as an aberration that the country needs to fix in 2020 but stopping well short of calling for his removal before then. Playing it safe appears to have gone out the window on Wednesday, a recognition that the former vice president faces the very real threat of losing the Democratic nod to Warren early next year.

The Point: The Democratic base wants Trump out yesterday. Biden finally realized there's no political path to urging caution when dealing with what Democrats believe to be a fundamental threat to the Constitution in Trump.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress, no matter whether you're the party in power or not in power, is wrong!"

-- Former GOP Rep. Trey Gowdy in 2012 after then-President Barack Obama asserted executive privilege over documents sought by Republicans during the House's "Fast and Furious" probe, according to Voice of America.

The White House has retained Gowdy as outside counsel in the House impeachment inquiry into President Trump, two sources told CNN on Tuesday.

✅ FACTS FIRST

It's time again for a Point-exclusive fact check (into what, exactly, treason is -- and who gets to decide) from CNN fact checker Holmes Lybrand.

Heeeeere's Holmes:

In an effort to attack the impeachment inquiry, Trump has cavalierly thrown out the suggestion that both House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi are guilty of treason for supposed "lies and massive frauds."

Q: Can a President convict someone of treason?

A: Of course not. Only federal courts can, and only Congress can determine the punishment.

The framers of the Constitution were pretty clear about this. Unlike in English law, which outlined treason as acts against the crown, the Constitution more narrowly defined treason as levying war against or aiding enemies of the US -- not the President.

Treason is one of the few crimes outlined in the Constitution and there are only a few dozen times in US history that charges of treason have been brought forward. (Only one case in the 21st century, but it never went to trial, since the alleged traitor, Adam Gadahn, was killed in a US drone strike on an al Qaeda compound in 2015.)

In order to be convicted of treason in a federal court, an individual must "levy war" against the US or be providing "aid and comfort" to an enemy. There have to be at least "two Witnesses to the same overt Act, or on Confession in open Court," according to the Constitution. If convicted, it's up to Congress to determine the punishment.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

A Vanity Fair Q&A with Nancy Pelosi

What if Democrats overreach?

Jonathan Swan says Trump has a plan

This Ronan Farrow interview on his new book. Whoa boy.

Coachella rules

In praise of Holly, a very fat bear

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Chris loves dark and brooding music. So yes, he is very excited for the new Nick Cave record, which won a Pitchfork rave.

GO DIRECTLY TO (CONGRESS) JAIL

The White House indicated on Tuesday that it would no longer comply with House Democrats' impeachment inquiry. That didn't sit well with two Democratic congressmen, who suggested today that anyone who stonewalls congressional subpoenas could wind up behind bars.

"You know, a subpoena is very serious document. It literally means under penalty if you don't show up, there is a penalty -- jailing and fines and that sort of thing," said Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut. "They will ignore those subpoenas at their peril."

"I think that when the witnesses come and they simply refuse to answer questions, I think it's time to call in the sergeant of arms, march them off to a little jail, which we do happen to have in one of the rooms of the Capitol and let them there and cool off for a while," California Rep. John Garamendi said.

But can Congress really jail people if it holds them in contempt for refusing to comply with its proceedings? Yes, actually.

According to the Congressional Research Service, Congress can tell the House or Senate sergeant at arms to detain or imprison the person in contempt until he or she honors congressional demands. This is called "inherent contempt." But it's super rare and hasn't happened in modern times.

LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LOOKAHEAD

Here's a glimpse at what's on the horizon in 2020 land.

October 10: CNN's LGBTQ Town Hall -- which will be missing one key figure: Bernie Sanders, who had a heart attack last week.

October 15: The fourth DNC debate in Ohio will have a record 12 candidates on stage (including Bernie Sanders). It's sponsored by CNN and the New York Times.

November: We'll have the fifth DNC debate sometime in November. As of Tuesday, Andrew Yang is the eighth candidate to qualify for the debate stage.

ONE BIG NUMBER

$984 billion

The federal deficit this past fiscal year, according to the Congressional Budget Office. It's the highest the amount has been in seven years. Chris wrote about why that's a big deal -- but no one seems to care.

We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.

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