| | | | The fine print of Trump's tax plan talking points | | For the first time since he took office a little more than 11 months ago, President Trump is poised to sign sweeping new legislation -- a wide-ranging tax cut that will fundamentally remake the US tax code.
Of course, it doesn't come without controversy and pitched opposition from Democrats, along with allied health care and environment activists. (The bill also effectively ends Obamacare's individual mandate and opens up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas drilling.)
Perhaps most notably, the cuts favor corporations more than individuals and, over time, skew sharply in favor of the rich and big business. Trump's response has been, in many cases, to ignore those details and instead focus on the individual cuts he says will benefit taxpayers.
Here are a few examples from his recent remarks:
Trump: "It's the largest -- I always say 'the most massive,' but it's the largest tax cut in the history of our country -- and reform, but tax cut."
Reality: It's not. According to an analysis by CNN's Sam Petulla and Tal Yellin -- as seen below -- Trump's cut will be the fifth largest since 1964. In fairness, two of those (both by -- Obama!) were extensions of expiring legislation. But JFK and Ronald Reagan both signed larger cuts, and by a good margin.
Trump: "The individual mandate is being repealed. When the individual mandate is being repealed, that means Obamacare is repealed. Because they get their money from the individual mandate. So the individual mandate is being repealed."
Reality: Expect to see and hear Trump's words a lot in 2018, as Democrats tie the tax bill (which is very unpopular) to GOP efforts to repeal Obamacare (also unpopular). They'll also note estimates that show 13 million people could lose coverage as a result, with premium hikes for others.
From a legislative standpoint, this statement is also flawed. As CNN's Z. Byron Wolf explained yesterday, the mandate is not being "repealed"; rather, the tax penalty is being reduced to zero. So the (now toothless) mandate remains on the books, as does Medicaid expansion for the states that accepted it. Obamacare subsidies are also on the table for revival, with Republican Sen. Susan Collins promising to push for a stabilization bill next year as part of the deal she struck with GOP leaders on the Hill in exchange for her tax vote.
Trump: "Excited to be heading home to see the House pass a GREAT Tax Bill with the middle class getting big TAX CUTS!"
Reality: Again, while not entirely false, this (from a November tweet) is fundamentally misleading. Still, both the White House and congressional GOP leaders have repeatedly pitched the bill as targeting the middle class. While 80% of tax filers will see some kind of cut, they aren't the main target of the bill. As Trump himself conceded on Wednesday, the corporate cut -- from 35% to 21% -- is "probably the biggest factor in this plan." It's also a permanent cut, unlike everyone else's. Those expire in 2025 and could lead to higher taxes for some middle-class families. Additionally, by capping state and local tax deductions at $10,000, people in higher tax states, like anti-Trump power bases New York and California, could end up owing more right away.
Trump: "America's tax code is a total dysfunctional mess. ... It is riddled with loopholes that let some special interests, including myself, in all fairness -- it is going to cost me a fortune, this thing. ... Believe me, believe me, this is not good for me."
Reality: The tax bill will almost surely further enrich Trump and his family. (It's hard to say for sure because he never released his tax returns, but even White House press secretary Sarah Sanders recently conceded Trump stands to benefit.) To start, the individual rate for the highest earners will drop to 37% from 39.6%. Then there's the new "pass-through" provision, which will allow "small business" like the Trump Organization, which had been taxed at the individual rates, to take a 20% deduction.
And then there's the estate tax. Congrats are due here to the Trump kids. Per CNNMoney's Julia Horowitz's comprehensive rundown of the bill, "The amount of money exempt from the (estate) tax -- previously set at $5.49 million for individuals, and at $10.98 million for married couples -- has been doubled."
The Point: Trump is always a salesman, but his pitch on taxes is about to come under much greater scrutiny than any past business deal. It's up now to the Democrats, as we enter 2018, to convince Americans that the tax bill is bad and that its biggest cheerleader can't be trusted. By fudging the details, or just plain lying, Trump is gifting them extra ammo.
Want to know more about the new code? Well, the Beme News team has been reading it all day long, no bathroom breaks, so if you're interested, or just enjoy watching people suffer (or both!), watch it LIVE right here. | | WAIT, WAIT. WILL CONGRESS LEAVE TOWN BEFORE... | | ...they pass a stopgap spending bill to keep the government running through into the new year?
...they secure new funding for the Children's Health Insurance Program?
...they add an extension or permanent legislative version of the DACA -- Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals -- program?
...guarantee more disaster relief money for storm- and flood-ravaged Americans?
...renew the National Security Agency's expiring surveillance law?
It's all -- or most of it (the Dreamers' nightmare is unlikely to end before 2018) -- on the table as Congress prepares to leave Washington for a holiday break.
To keep up on all the 11th hour wrangling, bookmark this (updating) story from CNN's Lauren Fox, Deirdre Walsh and Phil Mattingly on Capitol Hill. | | DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN AT THE UNITED NATIONS | | 
On Wednesday, US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley warned the United States would be "taking names" of countries that voted in favor of a resolution condemning the Trump administration's decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
The threat didn't quite land.
As CNN's Nicole Gaouette reported today, "Some 128 countries voted for the resolution, while nine voted 'no,' and 35 nations abstained, including Canada, Mexico and Australia." Haley used a similar tactic earlier in the week, after a Security Council resolution critical of the US decision only failed because of US veto. After that vote, Haley said: "What we witnessed here today in the Security Council is an insult. It won't be forgotten."
Sensing a theme here?
Well, if it sounds like something you've heard before, that's because IT IS. Back in January, on her first day(!), Haley greeted her new UN colleagues with a similar message.
"Our goal with the administration is to show value at the UN, and the way to show value is to show our strength, show our full voice. Have the backs of our allies and make sure our allies have our backs as well," she told reporters, adding then: "For those who don't have our backs, we're taking names, and we will make points to respond to that accordingly."
For the full story on that first day, check out CNN's Richard Roth's report from earlier in the year. | | DEAD HEAT: VA DELEGATE RACE WILL BE DECIDED NEXT WEEK | | 
On Wednesday, Democrats believed they had finally broken the GOP's grip on the Virginia House of Delegates. After a recount in one of a few really tight races (from back in November), it was determined that Shelly Simonds, the Democrat, had outlasted incumbent Republican David Yancey by A SINGLE VOTE.
But her shock victory didn't hold up in court. As CNN's Deena Zaru and Ryan Nobles reported today, "In the latest twist in the state's 94th House District race, a three-judge panel in charge of certifying a recount ruled that a ballot had initially been marked for Democrat Shelly Simonds, but the voter then crossed it out and marked it for Republican Del. David Yancey."
What next, then?
From Zaru and Nobles: "The panel's decision has left the race tied at 11,608 votes for each candidate. According to state law, the winner will be determined by sheer luck -- a drawing out of film canisters -- that will take place (next) Wednesday at 10 a.m. ET."
Bottom line: If Simonds wins, the chamber will be split and need to carve out a power-sharing deal. If Yancey keeps his seat, the Republicans will retain their narrow majority.
Here, Nobles explains exactly how the draw will go down.
And here, a fuller explanation of why so much will be at stake next week. | | This piece from Slate's Jordan Weissmann argues that the Republican tax cuts are symptomatic of an economic system in decline.
From Vanity Fair's Gabriel Sherman today: "I HAVE POWER": IS STEVE BANNON RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT? Note: A source who works for Bannon tells CNN's Rebecca Berg that he "is 100% not running for president."
On the off chance you've missed it, this John Branch (interactive) story from The New York Times, titled "Deliverance From 27,000 Feet," hits all the marks. To say it's about climbing Mount Everest, and dying there, way undersells the story.
From the singular Reductress: "Too Far? This Millennial Writer Wants Reasonable Compensation For Her Labor"
Wanna know what happens when you watch seven days of made-for-TV Christmas movies? This is what, from HuffPost's Claire Fallon and Priscilla Frank. (Full disclosure: Claire is, among many other things, my wife. Which means I "got" to watch a lot of the movies, too. Anyway, it's a great read.)
Here's Pitchfork with their 50 best albums of the year. (Companion reading: the 50 best albums of 2009, which was my favorite year for music in the last decade.) | | Two for the price of (none) today:
Start it off with Kendrick Lamar's "DNA."
Then cool it down and let it breathe with Animal Collective's "My Girls."
| | #TBT: PATTI LABELLE LIGHTS IT UP | | | Patti LaBelle is an American treasure, but even American treasures have their off days. Brenna literally has not been able to stop watching this video since her boyfriend showed it to her a few weeks ago. I'm a little late to the party, but some perennial favorites deserve as much reach as we can give them. The scene: The 1996 National Christmas Tree lighting. LaBelle was supposed to sing "This Christmas." What ended up happening was so much better. Among the things that go wrong: - LaBelle enters too early
- Backup singers are nowhere to be found
- LaBelle does not know the song
- The cue cards are not in the right order
"I'm going to ad lib all I can. Because I don't have the right words and I have no background singers," she sings to the tune of the song. Like the American hero she is. Does anyone actually know all the words to that song? Enjoy more of her very serious analysis here. | | 2016 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY REDUX... ON 'THE BACHELOR'?? | | So, before every season of "The Bachelor" or "The Bachelorette" debuts, ABC posts pics and mini-bios of the new contestants. They also ask the some dating game-style questions. This year, of course, it got political.
The question: Name anyone, dead or alive, you'd like to join for lunch.
For Brittany T., the picks were: Beyonce, Hillary Clinton, Chris Evans.
For Brittane J., the picks were: Whitney Houston, Bernie Sanders and Beyonce.
Uh oh!
But there does seem to be hope. No Unity Reform Commission required. Both chose Beyonce, too. What can't she do?
| | From Brenna: On the 11th day of GIFmas, 2017 gave to me -- an iconic Trump eye roll.
At some point this year, everyone has been over it. Even President Trump.
Brenna GIF'd a number of Trump eye rolls this year, and he's rolled his eyes at a lot: the media, ridiculous things going on around him, photo ops.
But this one stands out because it is a mix of all three of those things.
1. It came during a photo op with White House interns.
2. A reporter, doing her job, asked him a question about Jeff Sessions. Trump rolled his eyes.
3. The interns giggled.
As someone who almost rolls her eyes out of her head on a daily basis, Brenna can appreciate just being 100% over your surroundings (even if she doesn't appreciate hushing a reporter just doing her job).
Before we say good night, here's your daily reminder to subscribe to The Point. | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba. | | | | | | |
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