| | | | To end the year, the Global Briefing is running an exclusive series of quick takes this week from leading analysts. They will all be writing on the big issues to watch out for around the world in 2018.
Our regular Global Briefing newsletter will return on January 2. In the meantime, we would like to thank all of you for joining us in 2017. And we look forward to making the Global Briefing even better in 2018!
To let us know what YOU will be looking for from us in 2018, just hit "reply". | | Russia in 2018: Re-election of the War President | | Vladimir Putin surprised no one when he announced this month that he was running next year for a fourth term as Russian president. And his reelection is certain, writes Leon Aron, director of Russian studies at the American Enterprise Institute. "So don't waste time looking at his carefully scripted but sterile campaign for clues to Russia's future."
"Instead, look at the around $327 billion defense modernization program that Putin has authorized. This, in a country where personal incomes have been going down for four years, growing poverty is a key problem, and social protests are up 56%," Aron says.
"But that's precisely the point: Russia is at war. When he signed off on the defense modernization program, Putin called on all Russian enterprises, private or state, to be ready to switch to military production 'in a time of need,' as he put it, in order to 'efficiently neutralize' external threats.
"The message is clear: Putin is a war-time president. And war-time presidents cannot be replaced as long as the war continues. And the people must sacrifice for the 'defense of the motherland.'
"As Lev Gudkov, head of the Levada Center, one of Russia's last remaining independent polling agency, puts it, Putin's Russia is "…a dangerous state that preserves its legitimacy by provoking conflicts...By doing so it mobilizes the society in Russia to support the authorities."
"In 2018, Putin, his generals and his propaganda machine will make sure that there is war, whether in Syria, Ukraine, or on NATO's eastern flank: Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania."
| | Will Brazil Get Its Own Trump in 2018? | | "After suffering through a deep recession brought on by the global tumble in commodity prices, and a wide-ranging corruption scandal that has ensnared business leaders and top politicians, Brazilians are exhausted – and furious at the establishment," writes Juliana Barbassa, managing editor of Americas Quarterly.
"The modest economic recovery that took place this year under the hugely unpopular president, Michel Temer, is expected to continue into 2018. But that has done little to alleviate Brazilians' desire for change at any cost. With that in mind, October's presidential election will dominate the news cycle in 2018, with corruption, violence and lawlessness being the citizens' top concerns," Barbassa writes.
"Still, while the ground is fertile for outsiders and populists of all stripes, the roster of candidates at this early stage offers voters largely more of the same: leading the polls is former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (2003-2010), whose charisma is legendary, but whose corruption-related legal troubles may prevent him from running.
"The wild card is Jair Bolsonaro, a reactionary retired Army captain with a tough law-and-order message and an avid social media following among the wealthy and the young. He has surged in the polls and is drawing comparisons to Donald Trump – and, more ominously, to the Philippines' Rodrigo Duterte."
| | Will Britain Start "Taking Back Control" in 2018? | | | When Britain voted for Brexit in 2016, proponents of exiting the European Union in part framed it as a chance for Britain to "take back control." George Eaton, political editor of the New Statesman, says that 2018 will be the year when Britain is finally forced to decide what exactly taking back control means.
"Although the UK is poised to leave the European Union in 2019, the government has still yet to agree on the Brexit end state: will Britain be more like Norway (adhering closely to the EU's rules and regulations) or Canada (a looser free trade agreement)?" Eaton says.
"By autumn 2018, a deal is due to be submitted for approval by the other 27 member states, the European Parliament and the UK Parliament. Rebel MPs hope that a breakdown in negotiations, or an unforeseen crisis, could yet prevent Brexit altogether.
"But the prolonged uncertainty risks harming an already weakened economy -- the UK is forecast by the OECD to grow at a slower rate (1.2 per cent) than virtually all major economies.
"As Brexit draws closer, potential leadership candidates for the ruling Conservative Party, such as Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Home Secretary Amber Rudd and Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson, will likely position themselves to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May, who many expect to depart soon after Brexit day: 29 March 2019. (Although the truth is that the government is already so fragile that May will be content to merely survive the year).
"After running the Conservatives close at this year's general election, the opposition Labour Party is tasked with continuing its advance. Jeremy Corbyn's party aims to make gains in London and elsewhere at the May 2018 local elections. A failure to do so would lead to renewed criticism of Corbyn from rebel backbenchers.
"In tackling Brexit, Britain is contending with its most epic post-war challenge. With that in mind, 2018 could determine the country's path not just for years to come, but decades." | | Venezuela: Another Year of Crisis? | | Venezuela was in the headlines for all the wrong reasons in 2017 – its collapsing economy, food shortages, and growing fears that the government of Nicolás Maduro was sliding into dictatorship. Guillermo Zubillaga, senior director for public policy programs at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, suggests that 2018 will be a crucial one for the country moving forward.
"Although no official date has been announced, Venezuelans will head to the polls for a presidential election. But while the opposition is demanding fair and internationally observed elections, it remains to be seen if the widely unpopular Maduro regime will comply, and if the opposition is able to coalesce around a single candidate," Zubillaga writes. "And if the electoral conditions aren't judged to be fair? The question then will be whether the opposition boycotts the election altogether at the risk of further increasing Venezuela's international pariah status."
"Regardless, Venezuela's economy will contract for a fourth consecutive year even as the Maduro regime maintains its priority of servicing foreign debt over the import of goods to address the critical shortages of many items.
"As the humanitarian crisis deepens, Venezuelans will continue to flee en masse to neighboring countries in 2018. Is the region prepared for a migration crisis of this magnitude? US sanctions preventing the government from refinancing its debt are unlikely to go away, yet tougher sanctions are unlikely as the Trump administration likely wants to avoid higher gasoline prices for US consumers. Absent regime change, Venezuela's economy will continue to deteriorate until an internal shock becomes an unfortunate inevitability."
| | Mexico Facing Perfect Storm in 2018 | | A perfect storm is brewing in Mexico for 2018 -- and it seems like no one is paying attention, suggests Ana Maria Salazar, who worked at the White House as policy adviser for President Bill Clinton's special envoy for the Americas.
"Donald Trump's campaign rhetoric surrounding Mexico and Mexican migrants -- using them as a scapegoat for unemployment, low salaries, drugs and violence in the United States – contributed to a dangerous weakening of Mexico's economy and stability," writes Salazar, who was also deputy assistant secretary of defense for drug enforcement policy.
"The suggestion that the United States might leave NAFTA has understandably created nervousness and uncertainty in the business community -- in Mexico and the US. Adding to the uncertainty is the impact of Trump's tax reform, and the question of whether the United States will become more competitive by slashing corporate taxes. All of this has contributed to slower growth and higher-than anticipated inflation.
"Mexico's economic woes are happening against the backdrop of some of the highest homicide and violence rates in recent history and a depressed oil market. Throw in next year's presidential elections, and Mexico is in the midst of one of the most contentious periods of recent years.
"The America First and MAGA crowd argue that the responsibility of the US government is to protect American jobs and make the US more competitive. They are right. However, never underestimate how dangerous it is for US national security to have an unstable Mexico on the border.
"It is too soon to predict the result of next year's presidential election, although polls have shown leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leading. But whoever wins, there is no guarantee the new government will be inclined to cooperate with the US to confront threats that even a Trump wall cannot prevent."
| | No (Political) Drama in Canada for 2018? | | If you're looking for political drama, Canada is a poor bet for 2018, writes Jonathan Kay, a Canadian writer and regular contributor to National Post.
"Two years into his mandate, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remains well-liked at home and admired abroad. Meanwhile, his two rivals—Andrew Scheer of the Conservatives, and Jagmeet Singh of the left-wing NDP—are untested newcomers. Even in Québec, where French voters often march to their own tune, Mr. Trudeau is relatively popular, and the Québécois separatist movement that once threatened to split the country is moribund," Kay writes.
"In the realm of economics, the outlook is less certain. Donald Trump's negotiators are seeking changes to NAFTA, which could disrupt Canadian export industries. Housing prices have risen to arguably unsustainable levels in Vancouver and Toronto. And the OECD ranks Canadian household debt as the highest in the developed world.
"It's an economic bubble, in other words. The question is whether Mr. Trudeau and provincial premiers can prevent it from popping."
| | Italy: Europe's Problem Child for 2018? | | From Austria to Germany to the Netherlands, populist parties made big strides in European capitals in 2017, based largely on their anti-immigration platforms. It might be possible to add Italy to that growing list in 2018 – with the likely return of a familiar face, writes Mark Gilbert, a professor of history and international studies at John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
"The outcome of Italy's general election – which has to be held by May -- is uncertain. But the likeliest winner is a litigious right-wing coalition headed by controversial former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, which contains two radical populist movements, the Northern League and the 'Brothers of Italy,'" writes Gilbert, associate editor of the Journal of Modern Italian Studies.
"The Northern League is anti-immigrant, anti-Euro, and against the sanctions imposed by the West on Vladimir Putin's Russia. The largest party in the next parliament will likely be the populist Five Stars Movement, whose candidate for the premiership is untested 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio.
"The main party of government, the Democratic Party, has been in power since 2013, but the electorate has tired of its austerity policies and of its leader, former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. Indeed, the party split earlier this year, and will face competition on its left from the new group 'Free and Equal.'
"All this suggests that there are very good reasons for thinking Italy will be a problem child for Europe in 2018."
| | How Much Will Far-Right Shape Germany in 2018? | | Angela Merkel's Germany is frequently cast as Europe's anchor. But a lackluster performance by the ruling Christian Democratic Union in September's general election has left the country adrift – and the Chancellor "still working on a coalition of parties able to carry her into a fourth term," writes Almut Möller, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations' Berlin office.
"The strength – or lack thereof – of any future government in Berlin will be a sign of whether Germany can deliver on some major European and international policy challenges, including much-needed euro currency reform, strengthening European security, tackling climate change, and migration into Europe," Möller writes.
"Meanwhile, Germany's political culture is currently undergoing major changes. The federal elections in September were a watershed moment for Germany's parliamentary democracy, with the gains of the right-wing, anti-immigrant and anti-EU Alternative for Germany Party (AfD) contributing to the fragmentation of the country's parliament into seven parties.
"The AfD is a potentially strong opposition force (provided it gets its act together), and it will be crucial to watch its performance in 2018 and the impact it has on the multitude of policy challenges the new government will face, as well as on the established parties and Germany's political culture at large."
| | Four Challenges for France's Youthful President | | | French President Emmanuel Macron's election win against far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in May was widely seen as a victory against Europe's rising tide of populism. But James Shields, professor of French politics and modern history at Aston University, says the country faces four key challenges in 2018. "Politically, the year ahead will test the Republic's youngest ever president and his liberalizing reform agenda. It will see early reforms (labor market, national security, anti-corruption) take full effect, but the president must now implement the next phase of his reform program (on pensions, unemployment insurance, job training) against opposition spanning far right to far left. "Economically, Macron has staked much on reviving France's stagnant economy, balancing public finances and reducing high unemployment; can he be the first president in over forty years to pull off that triple coup? "On security, new legislation increases police powers of surveillance and intervention, but it is unclear if it will be effective in preventing further terrorist atrocities in France, which saw relatively minor security incidents in 2017 following the major attacks of the previous two years. "Finally, France faces the unknowns of Brexit, the European Union, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin – all will pose challenges for Macron as he looks to restore French leadership in international affairs. It was in their second year that the presidencies of Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande ran off the rails. The coming year will show whether Emmanuel Macron is made of sterner stuff than his two predecessors." | | | | | | |
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