| | | | To end the year, the Global Briefing is running an exclusive series of quick takes this week from leading analysts. They will all be writing on the big issues to watch out for around the world in 2018.
Our regular Global Briefing newsletter will return on January 2. In the meantime, we would like to thank all of you for joining us in 2017. And we look forward to making the Global Briefing even better in 2018!
To let us know what YOU will be looking for from us in 2018, just hit "reply". | | Two Big Headaches for China | | President Xi Jinping cemented his control over China in 2017 as "Xi Jinping Thought" was added as a guiding principle to the Chinese Communist Party's constitution. Next year will therefore be Xi's opportunity to "showcase his leadership capacity and deliver real results," writes Minxin Pei, the Tom and Margot Pritzker '72 Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College.
"China's new strongman will most likely be preoccupied by foreign policy crises in the coming year. In particular, two major threats are lurking on the horizon," Pei writes.
"The North Korean nuclear crisis is getting worse, not better. A consensus is forming in Washington that China is more of a problem than a solution in constraining NorthKorea. As Pyongyang crosses the last threshold in the coming year to develop its full-fledged nuclear arsenal, China's strategic environment in general, and its security relations with the United States in particular, will deteriorate significantly in 2018.
"Worsening security ties with Washington will not be the only thing that gives Xi headache. The Trump administration is readying a wide range of trade actions against China. If Beijing fails to make enough concessions to avert them, these trade actions could trigger a serious trade war and cause the Chinese economy a ton of pain."
| | 2018: North Korea's Year of the Nuclear Chollima? | | A combination of North Korea's increasingly advanced missile tests, President Trump's "fire and fury" rhetoric, and growing speculation that the United States is seriously mulling a military option against Pyongyang's nuclear program, meant a tense 2017. "But if you thought 2017 was a thriller, wait till you see what 2018 has in store," writes John Park, director of the Korea Working Group at the Harvard Kennedy School.
"In the six years since Kim Jong Un has been in power, the regime has conducted more than 85 missile tests and four nuclear tests – that's more than five times the number of missile tests conducted by his father, Kim Jong Il, and twice the number of nuclear tests – in less than half the time and with a bigger punch," Park writes.
"Particularly troubling for the US in 2017 were the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests, which started in July, and that have now put the continental United States at risk. In 2018, many North Korea watchers are anticipating an atmospheric test of a nuclear warhead delivered atop an ICBM over the North Pacific. Such a feat would be the crowning achievement of the nuclear portion of the Kim regime's Byungjin game plan – the parallel development of a minimal nuclear deterrent and a thriving economy.
"In technical terms, such a test would only be a demonstration of a viable prototype – North Korea would still have to mass produce, operationalize, and deploy an arsenal that would meet its criteria of a minimal nuclear deterrent. But in symbolic terms, it would be a nuclear Chollima – a tribute by Kim Jong Un to his grandfather Kim Il Sung's Chollima Movement, in which he invoked the mythical winged white horse to rally workers to rapidly rebuild a nation crippled by the Korean War.
"In practical national security terms, such a test would put the Kim regime squarely in the crosshairs of the Trump Administration. With the growing view within the White House that Kim Jong Un is irrational, undeterrable, revisionist, and proliferation-prone, a nuclear Chollima would further accelerate the collision course that Washington and Pyongyang seem to be on already."
| | India: Why 2018 Sets Stage for Really Big 2019 | | There will be plenty to keep the political pundits busy in the world's most populous democracy in 2018. "Five state elections set the stage for a national election in 2019," says Irfan Nooruddin, director of the Georgetown University India Initiative. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has just won two state elections, albeit more narrowly than anticipated. But these recent results indicate a growing urban-rural divide that should concern Modi -- and provide a lifeline for India's beleaguered opposition.
"With a national election fifteen months away, the next budget will be conservative, with many sops for the rural poor. After two big economic initiatives – the demonetization fiasco of late 2016 and this summer's Goods & Services Tax roll-out -- investors hoping for deeper market-friendly reforms will be disappointed.
"If job and economic growth don't improve quickly, the BJP will likely seek to consolidate the votes of Hindu hardliners going into the 2019 election. A judicial verdict is expected soon regarding the disputed Babri Masjid and demands for expanded caste reservations are growing. A stuttering economy and social controversies are a volatile mix.
"Internationally, calls to fully revive the Quad – a strategic partnership involving India, the United States, Japan, and Australia – will persist but expect little progress. Pay attention instead to how Mr Modi handles an isolationist America, and how India frames its leadership in the Indian Ocean to deal with strategic rivals China and Pakistan."
| | Kim Casts a Shadow Over Japan | | | There should be plenty to keep recently reelected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe occupied – and happy – in 2018. But the shadow of North Korean nuclear weapons will continue to loom over Japan's domestic politics and diplomacy, suggests Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"Abe now enjoys a 2/3 majority in the Lower House of the Diet and the strong tailwinds needed to win an unprecedented third term as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in September," Green says. "So, expect Abe to push forward on his pledge to amend the Japanese Constitution, including Article Nine, under which Japan renounces the right of war. He hopes to navigate this sensitive issue by retaining the Article's renunciation of war, but adding a clause declaring that Japan's military is constitutional.
"On the economy, Japan has enjoyed seven straight quarters of growth. But despite Abe continuing to prioritize his working relationship with Donald Trump in 2018, don't expect him to agree to Trump's demand for a bilateral free trade agreement. Instead, he will look to further consolidate the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with the 11 countries remaining since Trump pulled the US out, perhaps hoping to eventually lure the Trump team back to some kind of multilateral trade agreement for the region."
"Next year expect to see the Abe government work on improving ties with both China and Russia, but only finding modest gains. North Korea will dominate Japanese strategic thinking, as the Japanese Defense Ministry examines options for new missile defense systems and cruise missiles to deal with the growing threat."
| | A Peace Dialogue for Afghanistan? | | "As the US war in Afghanistan continues into its 17th year, 2018 likely will continue to pose real challenges for the Trump administration's new South Asia strategy -- on the battlefield, over Afghan elections, and when it comes to pressing neighboring Pakistan to change its approach to its neighbor," writes Courtney Cooper, International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
"Doubling down on US military efforts against both Taliban insurgents and international terrorist groups such as ISIS and al Qaeda could help stabilize the Afghan battlefield by increasing the territory under Afghan government control," Cooper says. "But it could also escalate the conflict -- and fuel the upward trend we've already been seeing both in civilian casualties and the number of refugees fleeing violence.
"Will the current US and Afghan military efforts be followed by a diplomatic push to launch a peace dialogue? That's certainly a possibility considering the Taliban's demonstrated willingness to talk, shared interest in denying space to ISIS, and regional calls to prioritize a political settlement to end the conflict.
"Meanwhile, the Afghan government will likely try to demonstrate it can plan and execute credible parliamentary (July 2018) and presidential (spring 2019) elections, which are already reportedly behind schedule. A lack of progress could further energize political opposition groups testing Afghanistan's fragile democracy.
"The other big thing to watch out for in 2018 is how Pakistan responds to US pressure to play a more constructive role in the region. That could either help to undermine the Taliban's ability to project violence into Afghanistan -- or reinforce it. Time will tell."
The author's fellowship is being sponsored by the US government.
All statements of fact or analysis are those of the author and do not reflect the views of the government.
| | Enter 2018: And a New Era of Turmoil in Pakistan? | | Without doubt, the biggest thing to watch in Pakistan next year will be the country's general election, which needs to be held by September -- and which will have major implications for stability, writes Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center.
"The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party has been weakened by corruption scandals," Kugelman writes. "Yet it actually stands a strong chance of success at next year's poll. After all, one of its biggest challengers -- the Pakistan People's Party, which led the previous government -- still hasn't recovered from its abysmal performance in the last election back in 2013. And while the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, led by former cricket star Imran Khan, broke through in 2013, it isn't yet a nationwide force.
"If the PML-N comes out on top, bitter rival PTI is unlikely to take it well – after all, the party still accuses the PML-N of committing electoral fraud in 2013. Nor will the powerful military, which has clashed with the government on multiple policy issues. The PTI's young, urban support base could take to the streets in protest. And civil-military relations, always fraught in Pakistan, could enter a new era of turmoil."
"Regardless of the election outcome, US-Pakistan relations figure to be rocky in 2018. The Trump administration has threatened to implement harsh measures -- which could include an expansion of its drone war in Pakistan -- if Pakistan doesn't crack down on militant safe havens on its soil used by terrorists that attack American forces in Afghanistan. If Pakistan doesn't comply, and if the United States follows up on its threats, the US-Pakistan relationship could face a major crisis." | | | | | | |
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