| | | | 3 BIG QUESTIONS going into 2018 | | For lawmakers, 2017 ended on Friday. Republicans are returning home with a mix of excitement and nerves -- their very unpopular tax bill is now law -- and Democrats, well, Democrats have a lot of work to do. Not just in campaigning to take back some sliver of governmental control in the 2018 midterms, but with their base, which was not happy with lawmakers who voted yesterday to avoid a shutdown without securing protections for so-called Dreamers or long-term funding for the Children's Health Insurance Program.
The latest drama aside, here are three questions for President Trump and Congress going into the new year.
1. Deal or no deal on DACA?
Democrats have said they expect to strike a Dream Act deal with Republicans early next year. But they once projected a similar confidence that it'd be done before the end of 2017. So you can understand immigration activists' anger and concern. Ultimately, though, Republicans are running the show, so Democrats will need to make some kind of power play before the March 5 deadline. Do they have a plan? It's hard to tell right now. In the meantime, expect the demonstrations to pick up pace and for Democratic officials who hedge at all to be thrown in with what's now being called the #DeportationCaucus.
Further reading: CNN's Tal Kopan asks, "Did Democrats lose their leverage on DACA?"
2. What now for Obamacare?
Ditto for CHIP. The children's program is a better bet to get fully funded, as Republicans seem committed to making it happen.
But Obamacare is in a more precarious spot. At stake are two "stabilization bills" that would help defray insurance costs for individuals in the market. In the horse-trading that led up to the tax vote, GOP leaders promised Sen. Susan Collins they would hold votes on both before the end of the year. But, as noted above, the year is effectively over -- and those pledges went unfulfilled.
The mystery now centers on whether Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan keep their word, and if Collins even tries to hold them to it. Obamacare is not, as Trump's been saying, "over." But with the individual mandate on the way out and cost-sharing payments frozen, it's in a dangerous place.
Further reading: CNNMoney's Tami Luhby reports on a "strong showing" for 2018 Obamacare enrollment
3. What's the next big Republican legislative project?
Someone needs to get McConnell and Ryan (and Trump) in a room, again, because they seem to have very different ideas about what's on deck for 2018.
Here's Ryan, still bubbly over the tax bill, speaking to talk radio host Ross Kaminsky: "So we basically planned in this term three big budget bills: two entitlement reform bills, one economic growth tax reform bill. The first one passed the House, failed the Senate, this one, both tax bills have passed the House and the Senate, we're on track with that, and then next year we're going to have to get back at entitlement reform."
Here's McConnell, skeptical of that: "I think that Democrats will not be interested in entitlement reform," he said at an event on Thursday. "So I would not expect to see that on the agenda."
(Note: This a stickier wicket for the majority leader. The Senate GOP's advantage will be further narrowed, to 51-49, when Alabama Democrat Doug Jones is seated next year.)
Here's Trump, today, as he signed the tax bill: "Maybe we start with infrastructure, because I really believe infrastructure can be bipartisan."
THE POINT: Enjoy the next 10 days if you can, because next year is going to be crazier than 2017. Yes, it's possible -- in fact, I'd say it's probable. The DACA fight could break the emerging Democratic wave way before it touches shore, though another Obamacare battle would, frankly, be a shot in the arm for "the resistance." So, too, would a Republican effort to "reform" Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security. McConnell knows it, too. But Ryan's pressing his advantage, and why not -- if Trump decides to go that way, the GOP will line the path with rose petals. | | HEAT'S UP ON GOP'S FARENTHOLD | | Exclusive today from CNN's MJ Lee:
"A former aide to GOP Rep. Blake Farenthold contacted the House Ethics Committee last week to detail what she said were regular requests from the congressman and his chief of staff to perform campaign-related duties even though she was never paid by or volunteered with his congressional campaign."
The context, from MJ: "On Thursday, the ethics committee announced that it was expanding its ongoing sexual harassment investigation into Farenthold to also look at whether his congressional staff 'may have used House resources, including staff time, to benefit his congressional campaigns,' as well as whether anyone acting on Farenthold's behalf 'may have required members of his congressional staff to work on his congressional campaigns.' An investigation into allegations does not indicate that any wrongdoing occurred."
More context, from me: This is something Hill staffers take seriously. I have certainly, once or twice, absentmindedly emailed a staffer, at their .gov address, with a campaign-related question only to be ignored or briskly referred to a campaign official or contact.
You can read MJ's full report here
| | RUSSIA PROBE LATEST... IN 101 WORDS | | Here's the rundown from CNN's Caroline Kelly:
"The Russia investigations on Capitol Hill chugged along full speed ahead this week. Congressional committees interviewed senior FBI officials, a handful of prominent Trump associates and even two fellow members of Congress. But after a plaintive Senate floor speech this week from Sen. Mark Warner, D-Virginia, imploring Trump not to fire special counsel Robert Mueller, all eyes are on Trump over the holiday. The White House has emphatically stressed that there is no plan to fire Mueller. Taking those denials at face value, many in Washington are still wondering if Trump will capitalize on Congress' vacation to give Mueller the boot." | | Slate's culture critics are out with "The Children's TV Canon" -- or, as an alternative headline, "a bunch of episodes that '90s (and some '80s) kids surely love, and why."
Vox's Alex Ward argues that "North Korea's Kim Jong Un may have had his best year yet."
Just a few hours after a tax bill victory lap at the White House, the Trump team -- along with an old friend from the outside -- were back at one another's throats. The Washington Post's Josh Dawsey and Robert Costa check in with the latest melodrama.
Here are three from earlier in the year that didn't -- I declare! -- get their due:
From Matthew Desmond in the NYT: How Homeownership Became the Engine of American Inequality
From Jason Fagone in HuffPost: What Bullets Do to Bodies
and
For all you "Crown" heads out there: 'London Bridge is down': the secret plan for the days after the Queen's death -- from Sam Knight in the Guardian. | | "Common People" by Pulp.
And then...
...let's get a little weird...
...with: "We Throw Parties, You Throw Knives" by Los Campesinos. | | "I'm warming up to the tweets."
--Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said it at a news conference Friday. He'd been asked how his relationship with Trump had evolved this year. McConnell is probably a little giddy over the tax bill's success, saying he "(had not) been a fan" of the President's tweets "until this week."
(Remember this comment for the next time Trump attacks the Senate GOP, or Muslims, or -- the list goes on...) | | | | Tweet of the day? More like story of the year.
The numbers cited by CNN's Ryan Struyk above come from a new CNN/SSRS poll out today.
Related nugget: When asked whether an elected official facing credible allegations of sexual harassment should resign because of those allegations, 60% said yes, 29% said no and 9% said it would depend on the circumstances.
When that question was narrowed to focus on Trump alone, asking whether he should resign in response to the sexual harassment allegations against him, the response was more polarized: 50% said yes, 48% said no and only 2% wanted to further consider the circumstances. | | The Washington Post's Aaron Blake ranked his most likely 2020 Democratic presidential nominees in a post this morning. Naturally, I felt compelled to do the same. But then I dunked my head in cold water, let out a piercing scream and... didn't. Anyway, here are his picks from 10 on down:
10. New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo
9. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown
8. California Gov. Jerry Brown
7. Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy
6. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
5. California Sen. Kamala Harris
4. New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
3. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
2. Former Vice President Joe Biden
1. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
**One note from me**
I think this pretty much matches the conventional wisdom. But I also think the framing is flawed. The 2020 Democratic primary is going to look more like the NCAA tournament, with different candidates vying to win different brackets, setting up a Final Four (or Three or Two) style showdown as the voting kicks off.
Potential candidates like Warren and Sanders and Sherrod Brown will be competing in the populist bracket. Gillibrand, Harris, Booker and Murphy will vie for more mainstream liberal and business-friendly support. Biden and Cuomo will appeal to the centrists.
And let's not forget the dozens of other hopefuls we aren't talking or thinking about yet. They are out there, and we'll be hearing from them soon.
| | From CNN's Brenna Williams: On the 12th day of GIFmas, 2017 gave to me… a reminder that dreams can come true.
11-year-old Frank Giaccio, like President Trump, is a businessman. So he must have known when he volunteered to mow the White House lawn for free, it was not only a testament to his work ethic, but also great advertising for his blossoming lawn care business.
A bigger testament to his work ethic: the fact that he didn't even stop mowing when the President himself came outside to greet him.
They basically had to engage in a "West Wing"-style walk-and-talk. He barely stops to give Trump a high-five.
And look at Frank's accessorizing! What a professional. We can all learn something from him.
That's it for the Days of GIFmas! Click here if you'd like to see the top political GIFs of the year.
***
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