| | | | The Senate is now very much in play in 2018 | | | Democrat Doug Jones' stunning US Senate victory in Alabama on Tuesday night sent a very clear signal heading into the 2018 election: No Republican Senate seat is safe. That means Democrats now have a reason to believe that they could do something that was considered unthinkable as recently as the start of this week: Retake control of the Senate next November.
"The favorable map makes Democratic gains more challenging, but it's not just about geography, but also about voters," said GOP pollster Glen Bolger. "The electorate does not give political parties a long leash on control."
Democrats have to defend 26 seats (two of which are held by independents) next November as compared to just eight for Republicans. Of those 26 seats, 10 are in states that Trump carried in 2016 -- including five that he carried by double digits.
But the result in Alabama suggests that the map isn't destiny. And, while Jones' victory, at its most basic, brings Democrats one seat closer to the majority, it has other more far-reaching effects as well -- putting a major charge in Democratic fund-raising, spurring candidate recruitment and maybe even triggering a spate of Republican retirements.
Even before Tuesday, Democrats already had some momentum in their unlikely push for the Senate majority next year. In Tennessee, former Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, shocked most people in the state by announcing he would run for the open seat left behind by retiring GOP Sen. Bob Corker.
Meanwhile, Republicans continue to have recruiting struggles in Democratic seats that were expected to be likely turnovers in 2018. In Montana and North Dakota, for example, Republicans have yet to land an "A"-type candidate. In Indiana and West Virginia, there are crowded primaries on the Republican side that will likely be nasty and expensive even before a dime is spent on the Democratic incumbents.
The Point: Democrats are still not favorites to win back the Senate majority in 11 months' time. But, thanks to President Trump's historic unpopularity, the passion within the Democratic base and the malaise that appears to be creeping into their own base, Republicans who had assumed they would control the Senate well beyond the 2018 elections have to feel much more skittish about that prospect today. | | CNN's Ryan Struyk was tracking Alabama exit polls all of Tuesday. Here were some of his biggest takeaways:
There are lots of juicy nuggets in exit polls and election results in Alabama last night, but here are my three most important ones. First, blacks made up a whopping 29% of the electorate in Alabama on Tuesday -- way more on par with the black share of the vote for Barack Obama's presidential election in 2008 and not some random special election in December of an off year. Second, young voters swung to the left: People under 30 years old in Alabama voted Mitt Romney +4 in the 2012 presidential race, but cast their ballots for Doug Jones +22 on Tuesday. And finally, there was no bigger "wow" in my mind than the result in the white, educated suburbs of Shelby County. They went Roy Moore +14 but were President Trump +50 last November. And that's enough to make lots of Republicans sweat about 2018.
And IYMI: Here were Cillizza's thoughts on 8 numbers out of Alabama that should terrify Republicans. | | MINNESOTA SENATE: WHAT'S NEXT | | Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton appointed Lt. Gov. Tina Smith to fill the seat to be vacated by Sen. Al Franken. Franken has yet to announce the date his resignation will come into effect.
CNN's Adam Levy and Wade Payson-Denney outline what comes next:
While Smith will keep the Senate balance of power the same (unlike Doug Jones, who will give the Democrats a new seat when he takes office), this will be an additional one Democrats have to defend next year in their hopes to regain the majority in the upper chamber.
What's next for Tina Smith?
After Franken officially resigns, Smith will be sworn in. Depending on the timing of Franken's resignation, she should be the second or third senator sworn in by Vice President Mike Pence (Alabama Republican Luther Strange was the first; Smith and Jones will be second and third), assuming Pence swears her in.
Smith will become the 22nd woman in the Senate and 17th female Democratic senator in office. Currently, there are 21 women serving in the Senate (16 Democrats and 5 Republicans). This is the record for women in the upper chamber, which Smith will increase upon taking office.
Smith will be eligible to run in a special election in November 2018 to fill out the remainder of Franken's term, which lasts through the end of 2020. There will also be a primary for this race August 14, 2018.
Whoever wins the special election next year can run for a full six-year term in 2020. Democrats now have to defend 26 Senate seats next year. Hillary Clinton won Minnesota by just 1.5 points in 2016 -- her second-narrowest margin of victory, behind only New Hampshire. However, Jones' massive upset in Alabama Tuesday night obviously makes the path to a Senate majority more tangible for the Dems. | | From CNN's Caroline Kenny:
Former Vice President Joe Biden appeared on "CBS This Morning," where he touched on potentially running for president in #2020. "If I got offered the job this moment by the Lord Almighty, I'd say 'no,' " he said of being president. "I'm not saying I wouldn't run, but I give you my word there's nothing I'm doing now to put myself in the position to do that." His comments echoed sentiments he's expressed on his book tour lately. | | | Photo courtesy: Twitter/Screengrab | | Speaking of Biden... the former VP also appeared on "The View" this morning, where he shared an emotional exchange with host Meghan McCain about her father, Sen. John McCain.
McCain, an Arizona Republican, was diagnosed with same cancer Biden's late son Beau had.
"There is hope," Biden told Meghan McCain, as he held her hand. "And if anybody can make it, your dad (can)."
Regarding #2020, he said: "If, in a year from now, if we're ready, and nobody has moved in that I think can do it, then I may very well do it." | | CNN's Dan Merica and Jim Acosta reported Wednesday a.m.: White House aide Omarosa Manigault Newman, a former contestant on "The Apprentice," plans to leave the White House next month, according to a statement from press secretary Sarah Sanders.
"Her departure will not be effective until January 20, 2018," Sanders said in a statement. "We wish her the best in future endeavors and are grateful for her service."
From CNN's story: "Manigault Newman's departure, according to two sources close to Trump, has been a long time coming. She joined the Trump White House as the top communications official at the White House Office of Public Liaison, but when chief of staff John Kelly took over in July, her role began to feel ill-defined, the sources said." | | From Brenna: On the fifth day of GIFmas, 2017 gave to me … a moment from that other Democratic victory. Just last month, Ralph Northam won the Virginia gubernatorial race by a pretty decent margin. Dems were stoked.
Leading up to his acceptance speech, pretty much every Democrat who had ever been to Virginia decided to stop by to say some words, and then they hung out to celebrate after. Among them was current Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who showed off his celebratory dance moves. The jam? Noted banger "Local Hero" by Bruce Springsteen, of course!
He. Goes. For. It. Elbow swinging, turning at the waist, a couple of fist swings, a solid hand clap -- McAuliffe had them all! Best life: lived. Reminder: Live your best life and tell others to subscribe to The Point. | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba. | | | | | | |
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