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Monday, October 1, 2018

The Point: Did Elizabeth Warren just announce her 2020 run?

October 1, 2018  by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Did Elizabeth Warren just announce her 2020 run?

At a town hall over the weekend in Holyoke, Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren laid down her 2020 marker.

"It's time for women to go to Washington and fix our broken government, and that includes a woman at the top," she said. "So here's what I promise: After November 6, I will take a hard look at running for president."

Which is, well, interesting -- to say the least. Why now -- just five weeks removed from the 2018 midterms? What was Warren trying to do?
 
Here's why we think she did it:

Chris' Take
I think Warren -- and her people -- understands she is in or close to the frontrunner position right now. (Harry Enten and I have her ranked #1 on our 2020 big board.)

In order to keep that slot, she needs to stake out her ground, mark her territory, plant her flag. She has to signal that, unlike 2016 when she was repeatedly courted to consider running but never seriously contemplated doing it, this time she means it. This is no dalliance, this is the real thing. 

That is a message that matters to the liberal activist base of the party, yes, and to major donors who are beginning to look beyond 2018 to the race to be the Democratic nominee against Trump.  

If Warren is smart, she knows that momentum and buzz in a presidential race is ephemeral. When you have it, you have to do everything you can to keep it. Winning a presidential race is like being a shark: If you stop moving, you die. Warren moved.

Lauren's Take
She's not running, but she's not not running. [Chris note: Strong Homer Simpson vibes here.] [Lauren note: D'oh!]

This development itself is interesting given the setting. Note that this news nugget didn't come out of a slick sit-down interview with a high-profile news outlet. It came at a town hall, in response to a constituent question, in a town basically as far away from the Boston media market as you can get without leaving the state.

Also, keep in mind that this question comes up at basically every town hall Warren has (and she's had over 30 just in the past year).

So why now?

Warren has always maintained she's focused on her own re-election. But with her own Election Day a month away and a swelling pool of would-be 2020 contenders, Warren's hand was forced to say something -- any signal would do. But she didn't "go there" go there -- at least not yet.

-- Chris and Lauren

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"He's been a cult-like, very popular figure, the way he's running his campaign, but you don't vote on cults when you go to the US Senate, you vote on the issues."  
-- Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, on Democratic Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke, who is challenging Sen. Ted Cruz this November. O'Rourke held a reportedly massive 55,000-person rally in Austin this weekend that included a performance by Willie Nelson. 

TRADESIES

President Donald Trump took to the Rose Garden today and announced a new trade deal that literally puts America first. 

The newly announced USMCA agreement (a tongue-twisting acronym short for US-Mexico-Canada) scraps NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement) and fulfills a key Trump campaign promise. "It just ... works," Trump said at the presser.

CNN's Katie Lobosco, Donna Borak, and Tami Luhby give us the download on what to expect from this new deal, including:
  • It opens up Canada's dairy market
  • A requirement for more North American-manufactured car parts
  • A sunset clause requiring it to be renewed
  • Updated penalties for digital crimes like pirating movies

CHRIS' GOOD READS

Can Joe Biden make peace with the Anita Hill debacle, ask Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns

Amy Chozick makes the case that Trump can and will win a second term

The Washington Examiner apologizes for pushing a conspiracy theory about the death of Seth Rich

Esquire's Ryan Lizza went to Iowa to check out Devin Nunes' family farm, and things got ... weird

I love Boban!

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

'Tis the season for a campaign tune. Country music legend Willie Nelson debuted a new song while at a massive rally for Democratic Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke this weekend called "Vote 'Em Out." The two also performed "On the Road Again" together (and of course there's video). 

INSTA POINT

Today's topic: Elizabeth Warren is staking her claim as the well-known liberal considering a 2020 presidential bid.

KAVANAUGH LATEST

A White House official tells CNN's Jim Acosta and Ariane De Vogue that it is NOT limiting the expanded FBI background search on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. The official pushed back on reports that the investigation is limited in scope and only looking into parts of Kavanaugh's past.

Meanwhile, nine of the 10 Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee have sent a letter with a list of people the FBI should contact in its investigation into Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, CNN's Sunlen Serfaty reports.  

The vote is coming -- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the Senate "will be voting this week" to confirm Kavanaugh, while speaking on the floor of the Senate today. 

WHERE'S THE BRIEF?

It's the incredible, shrinking White House press briefing! 

Throughout the entire month of September, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders held just ONE briefing, CNN's Betsy Klein and Kevin Liptak calculated. Held on September 10, it lasted 44 minutes (though it was kicked off by Council of Economic Advisers chief Kevin Hassett.)

Let's compare that to previous months this summer:

August saw five total briefings (lasting between 19 and 45 minutes), and July brought three total briefings (none lasting longer than 25 minutes).

FRESH POLL ALERT: SENATE EDITION

The sitting senators in Missouri and Nevada both face close races in their re-election bids, as Republicans vie to hold onto their Senate majority.

CNN's Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta has more

"Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill edges challenger Josh Hawley 47% to 44% among likely voters in Republican-friendly Missouri, while Republican Sen. Dean Heller stands four points behind his Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen in Nevada (47% Rosen to 43% for Heller), which has broken for Democrats in each of the last three presidential contests and has been a regular Senate battleground in the last decade."

YOUR DAILY GIF

H/T Brenna
From Brenna: "My favorite thing about the Forbes Under 30 Summit, where former of Secretary of State John Kerry spoke earlier, is how many of the speakers are wayyyyy over 30."
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.

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